Insider implies it’s only a matter of time before Trevor Lawrence breaks the bank

Before there was Caleb Williams, there was Trevor Lawrence.

Entering the 2021 NFL Draft, the former Clemson quarterback was considered to be a generational prospect worthy of being mentioned alongside Andrew Luck and Peyton Manning.

The Jacksonville Jaguars selected Lawrence with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. At the time, the draft class was praised for its depth at the quarterback position. Four other quarterback prospects — BYU's Zach Wilson, North Dakota State's Trey Lance, Ohio State's Justin Fields, and Alabama's Mac Jones — were selected in the top-15 picks of that year's draft. Of the five quarterbacks, Lawrence is the only one who remains with the team that originally drafted him.

"I'd love to, obviously, be a Jag for as long as possible," Lawrence said in April. "We love it here and I love where we're headed as an organization and feel like I'm just getting better every year. My best ball is definitely ahead of me. So, from that standpoint, obviously, yeah, that would be great."

The Jaguars are hoping to sign Trevor Lawrence to a long-term deal

Jacksonville is committed to signing Lawrence to a long-term contract extension, according to ESPN's Jeremy Fowler.

"I'm told that talks have been progressing fairly nicely, that certainly there's a hope among both sides that they can get this done," Fowler reported on Sunday, h/t Bleacher Report. "He's three years into his rookie deal so not urgent to have to get it done right this moment but Jacksonville, I'm told, is pretty committed to trying to get this done. This will also be a deal probably above that $50 million range but they are all in on Lawrence, they've been talking."

Heading into 2024, Jacksonville opted to pick up the fifth-year option on Lawrence's rookie contract, which extended his rookie contract through 2025 for an additional $25.7 million. The extension gives the Jaguars time to work out a long-term deal, but it would be wise to get it done sooner rather than later — the price will only go up if they wait any longer.

Lawrence was hailed as the next great quarterback, but he's gotten off to a rocky start through his first three years in the NFL. Jacksonville was an organization mired by dysfunction when Lawrence arrived, and new head coach Urban Meyer had perhaps the most disastrous and embarrassing head coaching tenure in NFL history.

Despite being set back by the organization and coaching staff in his rookie year, Lawrence began to show signs of progress in his sophomore campaign. In 2022, Lawrence compiled 4,113 passing yards with 25 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He earned a Pro Bowl nod as he led the Jaguars to a winning season and the franchise's first playoff win since 2017.

Expectations were high for Lawrence in 2023. With an improved supporting cast and another year of coaching, the Jaguars were expected to take a leap forward. Instead, Lawrence regressed in his third season.

The inconsistency of Lawrence's career has left his outlook murky. It's likely that the Jaguars organization is to blame for stunting the 24-year-old quarterback's development. It's likely that Lawrence would have faired better if he had been drafted by the Kansas City Chiefs and developed under head coach Andy Reid before throwing passes to wide receiver Tyreek Hill and tight end Travis Kelce.

Regardless of hypotheticals and inconsistencies, the scarcity at the quarterback position all but guarantees that Lawrence will be able to command an annual salary of $50 million. Just consider the state of some of the other teams that drafted a quarterback in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft: the San Francisco 49ers were saved by Brock Purdy, the New York Jets have been woeful with Wilson at helm, and the New England Patriots and Chicago Bears both selected a quarterback with a top-10 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.