NFL standings ordered by air yards per attempt: Bears cage Caleb Williams

The opening week of the 2024 NFL season brought plenty of action — as well as overreaction. While some teams fared better than others in their season openers, the Lombardi Trophy is not hoisted in Week 1. Ultimately, the championship will be won by the team that displays endurance and consistency throughout the grueling journey to Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans. In the early stages of the season, teams are still testing their schemes, integrating their new players and establishing their identity.

Regardless, there is still plenty of insight that can be gleaned from the decisions made and results produced in Week 1. This season, the opening week provided insight into questions that lingered around quarterbacks across the league. Some doubts were silenced, while others were amplified. 

There was a significant amount of turnover at the quarterback position this offseason. Along with a handful of veteran quarterbacks switching teams in free agency, teams selected a record-setting number of quarterbacks at the top of the 2024 NFL Draft. So far, many of their debuts have not gone as hoped. 

There’s a lot of context that can be extracted from examining each quarterback’s average air yards per attempt, which measures the average distance a pass travels before it’s caught by the intended target.

Air yards per attempt can be an indication of a struggling quarterback, but they can also go a long way in predicting how dynamic an offense can be. Coaches that don't trust their quarterbacks or offenses that lack sufficient weapons may struggle to push the ball downfield. In Week 1, many of the quarterbacks that struggled were also the ones who produced the lowest air yards per attempt.

If air yards can predict future success, some teams could be poised to make a postseason run regardless of the outcome of their Week 1 game. Here's a look at how the NFL standings would shape out if they were sorted by air yards per attempt after the first game of the season.

AFC Standings ordered by air yards per attempt

* denotes division winner
^ denotes wild card team

The AFC South loved throwing the ball deep in Week 1, with three of the four teams making it into these hypothetical playoffs. In some cases, these postseason standings don't look too far-fetched — Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and C.J. Stroud are all expected to make deep postseason runs. In other cases, such as the Las Vegas Raiders with Gardner Minshew, things don't seem quite as realistic.

Only five AFC quarterbacks averaged 5.0 or more air yards per attempt in Week 1. Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson led the league, but he was the only quarterback with at least 5 air yards per attempt to not secure a victory in Week 1. Richardson’s 163 total air yards ranked third behind Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (172) and San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (167). He also posted a subpar completion rate, completing just nine out of 19 pass attempts (47 percent). Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields also recorded more than 5 air yards per attempt, but they both failed to surpass 200 passing yards, and only Stroud completed at least 20 pass attempts.

Mahomes' 4.3 air yards per attempt were a product of the Kansas City Chiefs’ offensive scheme. With the additions of speedsters  Xavier Worthy and Marquise Brown, the Chiefs offense focused on opening up short and intermediate passing lanes to allow receivers to make dynamic plays with the ball in their hands. Mahomes finished with 291 passing yards, but 171 of them came after the catch. In the same game, Lamar Jackson was forced into the quick passing game because of pass protection struggles.

One name stands out from the rest: Deshaun Watson. The Cleveland Browns quarterback didn’t complete a pass that traveled more than 5 air yards through the first two quarters, according to ESPN Analytics. He completed just two of his 11 pass attempts that traveled more than 10 yards downfield. The Browns may have to consider a quarterback change if things continue to trend in this direction.

NFC Standings ordered by air yards per attempt

* denotes division winner
^ denotes wild card team

Compared to the AFC, the NFC has a significant drop off in air yards per attempt. Only six quarterbacks threw for over 4 air yards per attempt, compared to eight quarterbacks in the AFC. Five of those six NFC quarterbacks led their teams to wins. Only Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love had over 4 air yards per attempt but wasn't able to lead his team to victory. Love completed just 50 percent of his passes during Green Bay's loss in Brazil.

The NFC East seemed to focus on the short passing game — three of the teams ranked in the bottom five. The Philadelphia Eagles lead the division despite being ninth in the conference. Some quarterbacks and teams played well, but they either weren't able to pass the ball downfield or didn't need to. Dak Prescott didn’t have to do much after the Dallas Cowboys jumped out to an early lead in a 33-17 rout over the Browns. New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones had the worst performance within the division.

Some of the short passing was intentionally schemed. Coaches typically tend to ease rookies into a rhythm with easy reads and quick throws in their first start. The Chicago Bears and Washington Commanders both evidently followed that recipe with Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels, the top two overall picks in the 2024 NFL Draft.

Regardless of the opening week’s passing struggles, these quarterbacks and teams have plenty of time to turn things around. In 2023, the Eagles began the 2023 season with a 10-1 record, only to collapse through the remainder of the season. Meanwhile, the Chiefs held a 9-6 record heading into the final two regular season games, and they ultimately won the Super Bowl.