Best NFL Survivor Pool picks, Week 1: Bengals great matchup, steer clear of Chiefs

NFL teams have been preparing for this moment for the past seven months. Owners have terminated contracts, conducted interviews and introduced new leadership. General managers have been embroiled in contentious negotiations, attempting to save every dollar against the salary cap. Coaches have been tucked away in a dark film room somewhere in the team facility, meticulously dissecting tape and scheming up new plays to take advantage of their opponents. Players have competed for roster spots under the scorching summer sun.

With the regular season just days away, all that’s left to do now is play football. On the grueling journey to Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans, teams will see their best-laid plans either fall into place or fall apart. The margin for error is slim in the NFL, and one mistake could dismantle an entire season. Consider Super Bowl LVIII, where a botched punt return by the San Francisco 49ers gifted the Kansas City Chiefs their only offensive touchdown in regulation.

To win games in the NFL, teams must first stop losing them. The same could be said for NFL survivor pools — one mistake could suddenly end a flawless season.

The beauty of an NFL survivor pool lies in its simplicity. Pick one team to win each week and survive for the following week if they do. There is a wrinkle that complicates the matter a bit: Once a team is picked, the same team cannot be picked again for the remainder of the season. Without the ability to simply alternate between the league's powerhouses, it's important to choose wisely and not burn through elite teams early.

Here are some teams to consider picking — and some to avoid — to survive beyond Week 1.

NFL Survivor Pool: Teams to pick

1. Cincinnati Bengals

Matchup: New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals
Location: Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
Weather: 68 °F — clear
Spread: -9.0

The opening week of the NFL brings plenty of uncertainty. Fans have only last year's impressions and this year's projections to determine which teams will emerge victorious in their opening game. That's not always reliable, so it's a wise decision to go with a safe pick early and see how things play out. Even though there will be fewer favorable options later in the season, making risky choices early could make it difficult to even survive beyond the first week.

The Cincinnati Bengals will be the top choice for Week 1 in nearly every survivor pool. Picking the most popular team isn't typically a great strategy long-term, but it's too early to be concerned about that.

The New England Patriots have one of the worst offensive units in the league. The offensive line will likely cause problems early, and it may take rookie head coach Jerod Mayo some time to sort things out. Barring an unforeseen collapse, the Bengals should be able to handle business at home. Teams favored by more than a touchdown in Week 1 are 26-4 outright in the past 15 seasons (.867), according to ESPN Analytics.

2. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup: Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks
Location: Lumen Field, Seattle, WA
Weather: 74 °F — slight chance of rain
Spread: -6.0

There are reasons to be concerned about this matchup for the Seattle Seahawks, particularly since there are a lot of unknown variables under new head coach Mike Macdonald. The Denver Broncos will also be starting rookie quarterback Bo Nix, who has looked stellar in coach Sean Payton's offense throughout training camp and preseason.

The Seahawks provide plenty of upside to go along with the risk. First-round rookie quarterbacks have gone 0-9 in their first career starts since 2021. Lumen Field is one of the loudest stadiums in the NFL, which could cause problems for a rookie quarterback and a middling Broncos offense. The Broncos defensive unit ranked No. 29 in yards last season and struggled against the run, which could result in a fruitful day for Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker.

The Seahawks are unlikely to have matchup this favorable again for quite some time, so using them now could prove to be an early advantage against other survivors that picked better teams.

3. New Orleans Saints

Matchup: Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints
Location: Mercedes Benz Stadium
Weather: Dome
Spread: -4.0

The New Orleans Saints are favored by 4.0 points at home against the Carolina Panthers, who were the worst team in the NFL last year. The Panthers have done little to inspire confidence this offseason. Unlike the Houston Texans last season, Carolina did not fortify their roster with premium talent and they still lack an offensive identity.

Saints quarterback Derek Carr may not be a candidate for NFL MVP, but he is far more trustworthy than Panthers quarterback Bryce Young. The Saints should improve offensively under new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, and unlike last season, running back Alvin Kamara will be available to start the season. they will start the season with running back Alvin Kamara in the backfield.

The Saints are not expected to be in playoff contention this season, so there isn't much reason to hold onto them for future use. They could prove to be a reliable early pick for anyone who would prefer to save the Cincinnati Bengals for a matchup later in the season.

NFL Survivor Pool: Teams to avoid

1. Kansas City Chiefs (or Baltimore Ravens)

Matchup: Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs
Location: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Weather: 85 °F — slight chance of thunderstorms
Spread: -3.0

The Kansas City Chiefs will be one of the safest teams to pick in any given week, but this isn't the week to pick them. Kansas City will be celebrating their Super Bowl LVIII victory with a banner ceremony, and the Baltimore Ravens will be reminded of their mistakes in the AFC Championship Game that cost them a trip to the Super Bowl. This game will be as tough as any game either team will play this season, so it doesn't make much sense to pick either team here.

2. Buffalo Bills

Matchup: Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo Bills
Location: Highmark Stadium, Buffalo, NY
Weather: 56 °F — chance of rain
Spread: -6.5

The Buffalo Bills are the second-biggest favorites this week, but the Arizona Cardinals are an unpredictable wild card. With a refreshed stock of offensive weapons and quarterback Kyler Murray at the helm, the Cardinals could pull off an upset victory, particularly if Murray sheds the Bills defense on the ground. Buffalo had a tumultuous offseason of change, and they were forced to shed many of their key players on both sides of the ball to become salary cap compliant. Throw in the chance of rain, and this game could get sloppy. It's probably better to wait and see what the new iteration of the Bills team looks like before selecting them.