Best NFL Survivor Pool picks, Week 3: Bills have unfair advantage, bet against Bo Nix, avoid Chiefs

For the second consecutive week, survivor pools were decimated by the unpredictable and chaotic nature of the NFL. 

The Cincinnati Bengals led survivor pool picks as the overwhelming favorite in Week 1. When they fell to the New England Patriots, they took nearly 50 percent of survivor pools with them. Things didn’t get much better in the second week of the season. The Baltimore Ravens received roughly 30 percent of all picks as the most popular option in Week 2, but their loss against the Las Vegas Raiders dwindled survivor pools even further. In total, eight underdogs emerged victorious in Week 2. 

If you followed the advice from last week’s column, you may still be left standing. The Los Angeles Chargers and Houston Texans were the top two recommended picks in last week’s column, and both teams won. The two teams that we recommended avoiding — the Philadelphia Eagles and the Dallas Cowboys — both lost. The Ravens were the third and last recommended pick on the list, but hopefully, you just trusted one of the first two suggestions.

Teams to pick in your NFL Survivor Pool for Week 3

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Matchup: Denver Broncos at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Location: Raymond James Stadium
Weather: 88°F — isolated thunderstorms
Spread: -7.0

Following Tom Brady’s retirement, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have returned to being a small-market team that barely gets noticed. This week, they shouldn’t be overlooked.

Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield has compiled 474 passing yards and five total touchdowns with just one interception. Mike Evans is continuing his Pro Football Hall of Fame career in typical fashion, while Chris Godwin has already surpassed 200 receiving yards. Add in Rachaad White in the backfield, and the result is 28.5 points per game, fourth-most in the NFL.

The Denver Broncos, in comparison, have only managed to average 13 points per game. To say that the Broncos have struggled is an understatement. Rookie quarterback Bo Nix has struggled to pass the ball beyond the line of scrimmage. The rookie completed just 11-of-36 pass attempts that went more than 5 yards downfield, while also throwing four interceptions on those attempts. The running game isn’t doing him any favors either. Nix became the first quarterback to lead his team in rushing yards in his first two career starts since 1950.

2. Buffalo Bills

Matchup: Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills
Location: Highmark Stadium
Weather: 62°F — slight chance of rain showers
Spread: -5.5

Although it may seem like a good idea to save the Buffalo Bills for a better matchup, there may not be a better opportunity to pick them. The Bills are about to enter a tough stretch of their schedule with three consecutive road games against the Baltimore Ravens, the Houston Texans and the New York Jets. By the time they face the Tennessee Titans in Week 7, there will be other picks that are equally enticing.

Buffalo defeated the Miami Dolphins on Thursday, and they won’t play their Week 3 game until Monday. The Bills will face the Jaguars on Monday Night Football, in front of their raucous fans in Buffalo, after 10 days of rest and preparation. The Bills are hard enough to beat in a normal week, but this advantage is arguably unfair. 

3. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup: Miami Dolphins at Seattle Seahawks
Location: Lumen Field
Weather: 63°F — likely rain
Spread: -4.5

After leading Baltimore to the No. 1 ranked defense in 2023, Mike Macdonald is building another defensive powerhouse with the Seattle Seahawks.

Although the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots weren’t the best teams to measure their defensive prowess against, the Miami Dolphins won’t be considerably better. Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa suffered a concussion during Miami’s Week 2 loss to Buffalo, and they’ll now have to trot out Skylar Thompson as their starting quarterback in Week 3.

Seattle isn’t an ideal place to play for a team with a new starting quarterback. Lumen Field, arguably the loudest stadium in the NFL, has been known to cause communication issues for opposing offenses. The Seahawks defense has managed to generate the second-highest pressure rate through the first two games of the season, which could mean Thompson will be in for a long day.

Teams to avoid for your NFL Survivor Pool in Week 3

1. Las Vegas Raiders

Matchup: Carolina Panthers at Las Vegas Raiders
Location: Allegiant Stadium
Weather: dome
Spread: -5.5

It’s quite possible that winning a survivor pool could be as simple as picking the team that’s playing against the Carolina Panthers each week. That would explain why the Las Vegas Raiders are the most popular pick of Week 3. 

Carolina has certainly looked like the worst team in the league this season, but it’s important to remember that Bryce Young is no longer the starting quarterback. With Andy Dalton elevated to the starting position, the Panthers could prove to be unpredictable.

For those who are superstitious, perhaps it’s also important to consider that the most popular pick of the week has yet to win this season. Either way, the Raiders are a supposedly safe pick with minimal upside. If you pick the Raiders and they win, your survivor pool likely won’t shrink by much. If you don’t pick them and they lose, you’ll likely see considerably fewer survivors alongside you for Week 4.

2. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup: Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons
Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Weather: dome
Spread: -3.5

The Kansas City Chiefs are expected to win this game, and they should win this game. Regardless, there will be better opportunities to select the reigning Super Bowl champions. For now, it’s best to wait for Kansas City to iron out their early-season struggles.

The Chiefs running game may not be as efficient for a few weeks. Isiah Pacheco is expected to miss six to eight weeks with a fibula injury. Undrafted rookie Carson Steele received plenty of praise in training camp, be he has averaged just 3.0 yards per carry, hasn’t caught a pass and lost a fumble on his nine touches. 

The Chiefs passing game has plenty of questions as well. Tight end Travis Kelce has been held to under 45 yards in five consecutive regular season games. At age 35, he may not be able to carry the offense as he once could. Rookie wide receiver Xavier Worthy had a stellar debut, but he still has just four receptions on the season.

The Atlanta Falcons, meanwhile, are entering the game in their home stadium with some confidence. Their comeback victory against the Philadelphia Eagles proved that Kirk Cousins isn’t finished just yet.