NFL trade grades: Cowboys Trey Lance trade is even more questionable after latest move

Before proclaiming that the record-breaking number of quarterbacks selected in the 2024 NFL Draft will be future Hall of Famers, it's wise to take a look back at the last quarterback class that was expected to boast such talent.

Five quarterbacks were selected in the top 15 picks during the 2021 NFL Draft: the Jacksonville Jaguars selected Trevor Lawrence, the New York Jets selected Zach Wilson, the San Francisco 49ers selected Trey Lance, the Chicago Bears selected Justin Fields, and the New England Patriots selected Mac Jones. Lawrence became the only one of those five quarterbacks to have his fifth-year option exercised. The other four quarterbacks are no longer on the team that drafted them.

Of those five quarterbacks, none were as disastrous as Lance, who appeared in just eight games for the Niners. San Francisco traded Lance to the Dallas Cowboys for a 2024 fourth-round pick just two years after trading three first-round picks to select him with the third pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.

Cowboys burned a valuable fourth-round pick for Trey Lance

The Cowboys have declined to pick up the fifth-year option on Lance's rookie contract, according to ESPN's Todd Archer.

The fifth-year option would have locked Lance in for a one-year, $22.4 million fully guaranteed contract in 2025, so it's not surprising that the Cowboys opted against it. After all, Dallas doesn't even seem to want to pay their starts that type of money.

Lance is set to make $5.31 million this season in base salary in 2024. The three quarterbacks on the Cowboys' roster — Dak Prescott, Cooper Rush, and Lance — are all set to be free agents next offseason.

The trade for Lance was viewed as a low-risk move, but a fourth-round pick was still a hefty cost. In retrospect, that fourth-round pick could have been valuable to a Cowboys team that is tight on salary cap space and needs impact rookie starters for the upcoming season. Dallas moved on from their long-time left tackle Tyron Smith this offseason and the 2024 NFL Draft class had depth across the offensive line. The Cowboys also did not select a running back and wound up signing running back Ezekiel Elliott, who is no longer able to carry the workload of a full-time starter. That fourth-round pick could have filled a position they desperately need.

Just because the Niners spent three first-round picks on Lance doesn't mean he was worth a fourth-round pick for Dallas. To say that Lance lacked any real football experience would be an understatement. He only attempted 99 passes in high school. In college, where he had only one true season as a starter, he amassed a mere 318 pass attempts. For context, Lawrence had 602 attempts in his rookie season alone.

While some may argue that the trade for Lance had high upside and low risk, it's more likely that it had no upside at all. Prescott was already established as one of the premier quarterbacks in the league and Lance likely wouldn't have seen action even if Prescott got injured. After all, Dallas has continued to carry Cooper Rush on their roster. Lance was inactive for every game last year, and his on-field participation will continue to be limited to the preseason.

As for the San Francisco 49ers, it's hard to give them much credit for recouping a fourth-round pick after their original picks in the trade to acquire Lance produced players such as Micah Parsons, Devonta Smith, and Jaylen Waddle. Still, at least it's something.

Cowboys grade: D-
San Francisco 49ers grade: C