NFL trade rumors: Did the Texans just pull a fast one on the Vikings?
The Minnesota Vikings have some big gaps to fill after losing Kirk Cousins and Danielle Hunter in free agency. They're gearing up to address them in the NFL Draft.
The Vikings traded up for a second selection in the first round, dealing three picks to the Texans to take the No. 23 pick. Minnesota already holds pick No. 11.
The "winner" of the trade will be determined by which players each team takes with their picks. In terms of pure numbers though, the Texans got great value to move out of the first round.
Every model that tries to assign value to draft picks gives the Texans the clear nod in the trade. And it's not particularly close, with most charts determining the Texans netted the value of a third-round pick. By sheer numbers, Houston fleeced the Vikings.
Of course, numbers aren't the only consideration here.
Did the Texans pull a fast one on the Vikings? Perspective matters
This all comes down to what the picks become. Sure, the Vikings possibly overpaid to move up, but no one will be saying that in two years' time if that trade results in them drafting a franchise quarterback.
Minnesota's situation is very different from Houston's. Vikings GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah needs a quarterback and this move heavily hints that he's going to find a way to get one in the draft. It would surprise no one if they moved up again with the package of picks they can now offer.
It makes sense for them to forgo "value" in favor of being in the position to take the quarterback they want.
Meanwhile, the Texans have every incentive to focus on value in the draft. They have their franchise quarterback. They have foundational pieces on the offensive and defensive lines. They've made their big first-round picks (and hit on them, most importantly). Now they're in the supplemental team building phase.
It makes sense for them to give up a late first-rounder to get mid-round value.
The problem for the Vikings is they're going to be punished more heavily for any missteps from here on out. If the Texans whiff on the 42nd pick, it won't be viewed as a massive deal. If Minnesota whiffs on whatever they can get from No. 11 and 23, Adofo-Mensa will have trouble keeping his job.