Who really deserves NL MVP? Comparing Shohei Ohtani, Marcell Ozuna, Francisco Lindor

From all corners of the baseball world, we get a clear indication the Shohei Ohtani is the hands-down favorite for NL MVP. And why not? Ohtani leads the league in homeruns, OPS, and SLG. He currently stands just three homers and two steals away from a 50-50 season.

However, two names, Marcell Ozuna and Francisco Lindor, have seemingly emerged out of nowhere to challenge Shohei’s claim the NL crown. To give an idea where each of them stand, we’ll take a brief look at their stats and rank among the NL leaderboards.

On the surface, it still seems like Ohtani should still be the runaway favorite. But what is behind the chatter? Could Ozuna or Lindor snatch the award from Ohtani’s hands? Let’s cut through the noise and assess Ozuna and Lindor’s case for the crown.

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The MVP case for Marcell Ozuna

The recent buzz around Marcell Ozuna has been the possibility of hitting for the triple crown. Now, it seems that opportunity has faded. If anything, a triple crown is more likely within Ohtani’s reach. However, Ozuna’s batting average is still considerably higher than Ohtani’s. Enough to beat Ohtani out for the gold? Maybe not, but before we dismiss Ozuna, let’s give his case a sporting chance.

Ohtani currently has a commanding lead in home runs. Sort of like Aaron Judge in 2017 when he hit 52. Meanwhile, Jose Altuve only hit 24. However, Altuve’s .346 average and 32 stolen bases were enough to convince the voters.

Ozuna doesn’t have any stolen bases this season, but the Big Bear does lead Ohtani in hits (extremely slim margin) and OBP in addition to batting average. But if Ozuna is going to seize the trophy based on his average, he’s going to need to do a lot better. Unless he goes on a tear, his MVP case has vanished.

The MVP case for Francisco Lindor

Earlier this year, Francisco Lindor failed to secure a spot on the All-Star roster. Now it seems writers are giving him props as a viable MVP candidate. What’s behind his sudden rise to MVP candidate?

Lindor just came off of a 16-game hitting streak. Over his past 30 games, Lindor is slashing .317/.379/.571 with nine long balls. Nonetheless, his MVP case rests on the fact that he is carrying the Mets. But his totals still lag Ohtani’s by a decent stretch. His injury makes his case more difficult. He likely won’t be out long, but we don’t know what to expect from him when he gets back.

Even if his numbers are far behind Ohtani’s, there is something that could make him more valuable. That one game-changer would be defense. It wouldn’t be Ohtani’s first time, but no DH-only player has ever won an MVP award. To Lindor’s credit, he is one of the top three defenders in the game. According to FanGraphs, he is third in defensive WAR in the MLB and first in the NL. Not only that, but Lindor now has a higher overall WAR value than Ohtani.

To be fair, WAR is not the best measurement of a player’s overall value. Ohtani has a higher defensive WAR value than Ozuna though neither of them have taken the field this year. But the fact that Lindor now has the highest WAR in the NL is significant.

Is Lindor’s superb defense enough to win him an MVP? To make a case for Lindor further, we will revisit 2018. That year, JD Martinez hit .330 (second in MLB) with 43 home runs (second in MLB) and 130 RBIs (first in MLB), yet he came in fourth in the AL MVP voting. Instead, Mookie Betts walked away with the MVP having hit 32 home runs with a .346 average. The point here isn’t that Martinez lost to Betts who was phenomenal, it’s that arguably the best hitter in baseball (and near triple-crown winner) came in fourth likely because he was primarily a DH (both Betts (first) and Trout (second) had compelling cases offensively; Jose Ramirez, who came in third, did not).

Overall, it’s hard to justify Lindor as more valuable than Ohtani. But there is a chance, albeit a small one, that the perception of the DH outweighs Ohtani’s offensive accomplishments. But if Lindor returns quickly and continues his torrid stretch, this race may get interesting.

The verdict

By a wide margin, this is still Ohtani’s race to lose. Ohtani’s wRC+ (weighted runs created plus) value still tops the league thanks to his combination of power and speed. Lindor’s offensive numbers currently do not compare.

Meanwhile, Ozuna is closest behind Ohtani offensively. Even so, with less than two weeks remaining in the season, it doesn’t seem like he will be able to catch Ohtani or expand his lead considerably in any metric important enough to snag him the MVP.

By all indications, it seems Ohtani will the first DH-only MVP.