No. 1 Contender that will miss the postseason: Miami Marlins
The Miami Marlins currently hold a 47.6 percent chance of making the postseason, according to FanGraphs. While they are down only half a game, they could still make the postseason, but it's going to come down to the wire. If anyone can shock everyone and make the postseason, it's the Miami Marlins.
The Marlins have struggled dearly in 2023 since Sandy Alcantara fell off a cliff in his average performance. The Marlins are doing what they always do, which is get young pitching talent. They have probably one of the next best rotations in all of MLB with Sandy Alcantara, Jesus Luzardo, Braxton Garrett, Eury Perez, and Edward Cabrera.
All of those names except Alcantara are under 25 years old, so they are quite inexperienced. Eury Perez is only 20 and has some problems, such as not being able to pitch long into games. When it comes to the bullpen, they have many studs but are missing a closer, with the closer role moving from player to player. The best players in the rotation are Tanner Scott and Andrew Nardi. Even recently, they've been making moves by claiming Matt Moore off waivers from the Cleveland Guardians, but he is unable to pitch this offseason due to the rules.
Problems with the current talent cause them to miss the postseason
The Marlins have a young group of talented players in their lineup, which includes Luis Arraez, who for a while was chasing the .400 batting average, now down to .354. It also includes the King of the Postseason, Jorge Soler, who helped lead and win a World Series for the Atlanta Braves in 2021. This lineup also has two of the best young talents in Jesús Sánchez and Jazz Chisholm Jr.
In an attempt to make it to the postseason, they acquired two talents at the deadline, Jake Burger, who has demolished pitchers in Miami, and also Josh Bell, who has done the same. The Marlins are contenders, but they still will need many upgrades to the team. They have players like Joey Wendle on the team, and also need to acquire a catcher because they have Nick Fortes and Jacob Stallings, both of whom have fallen upon hard times.
The Marlins would be a fun team to see in the playoffs, but they don't have enough talent yet to make a deep run and will have to make several big moves this offseason to turn from pretenders into contenders.