Nostradamus? NFL analyst who's predicted last 6 Super Bowl winners reveals 2024 shortlist

If predicting Super Bowl winners was easy, Las Vegas wouldn't be taking bets on the prospect. The NFL is the only major American sports league to feature single-elimination games in the postseason. In the NBA and MLB, teams have climbed out of 3-1 series deficits to win the championship. The NFL offers no such margin of error, and the better team doesn't always win. If the New England Patriots had a best-of-seven series against the New York Giants in 2007, they likely would've won 4-1.

Even for the most talented team in the league, it's difficult to reach the Super Bowl after a long and grueling season. Teams attempt to minimize the elements of football that add unpredictability and chaos to the game, but it's impossible to prepare for every unexpected facet of the game. The prolate spheroid-shaped football can bounce unpredictably; season-altering injuries can mount in a hurry; attrition and fatigue set in. In the end, Super Bowl championships often come down to preparation and good fortune.

For most people, it's nearly impossible to correctly predict who will win the NFL's championship. For NFL Network's Peter Schrager, however, picking the Super Bowl winner has become an offseason tradition.

Peter Schrager previews Super Bowl pick after predicting last six winners

For each of the past six seasons, Schrager has correctly picked the Super Bowl winner prior to the season. He selected the New England Patriots in 2018, Kansas City Chiefs in 2019, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2020, the Los Angeles Rams in 2021, and the Chiefs again in the past two seasons.

Although Schrager hasn't released his Super Bowl picks for 2024 yet, he did drop a hint on which way he's leaning. Schrager joined his co-hosts on NFL Network's "Good Morning Football" to preview his top five teams that are most likely to win a Lombardi Trophy in the upcoming 2024 season. The top four teams on Schrager's list are as expected: Kansas City Chiefs, San Francisco 49ers, Detroit Lions, and Baltimore Ravens.

The Chiefs are defending Super Bowl champions, and the Niners were an overtime period away from hoisting the Lombardi Trophy themselves. Both teams have become mainstays in their respective conference championship games. The Ravens were the No. 1 seed in the AFC, but shoddy playcalling resulted in a loss in the AFC Championship Game. The Lions had a sizable lead over San Francisco in the NFC Championship Game but ultimately fell apart in the second half.

The most fascinating part of Schrager's list is his fifth team: the Los Angeles Rams. After the retirement of all-time great defensive tackle Aaron Donald, and a quarterback who isn't getting any younger, the Rams have been struggling to sustain their early success since hiring head coach Sean McVay.

Although Schrager has correctly guessed the Super Bowl contestants, the picks aren't necessarily shocking — each team entered the season as a media darling or heavy favorite. Entering 2018, the Patriots had made two Super Bowl appearances in the prior two seasons. In 2019, the Chiefs were coming off of a spectacular campaign for which quarterback Patrick Mahomes was named the 2018 NFL Most Valuable Player. In 2020, the Buccaneers signed quarterback Tom Brady and tight end Rob Gronkowski, effectively making them one of the league's best rosters. In 2021, the Rams followed the Buccaneers' blueprint and traded for quarterback Matthew Stafford. The past two years, the Chiefs have been overwhelming favorites to win the championship.

For example, Schrager correctly predicted the outcome of Super Bowl LVIII, but he didn't necessarily nail how it would happen.

"It'll be 49ers vs. Chiefs in Vegas," Schrager said in September. "The winner, with the exact score being 34-28, and with second-year cornerback Trent McDuffie returning a pick-six late in the fourth quarter, the Kansas City Chiefs will yet again be your Super Bowl champion."

If Schrager can keep it going, however, he may end up receiving some lucrative job offers in Las Vegas.