We can officially cross Oklahoma State off as a serious College Football Playoff team

I really thought the Oklahoma State Cowboys would take advantage of the power void at the top of the Big 12 Conference in the wake of Oklahoma and Texas leaving for the SEC... In time, the Pokes still may be able to do that. Mike Gundy remains one helluva coach at his alma mater and the T. Boone Pickens trust yields plenty of money for this intriguing Big 12 program to continue to build upon.

However, the best they can do this year is 10-2, and not all 10-2's are created equally. Oklahoma State may have been perfect in the non-conference with wins over South Dakota State, Arkansas and Tulsa, but dropping to 0-2 in conference play with losses already on the ledger vs. Utah and Kansas State are likely too much to overcome. While the Utes and Wildcats have lost, other teams have not.

Oklahoma State does have a fairly navigable schedule the rest of the way. The Pokes' three hardest remaining games are at BYU and I guess, at Colorado and at West Virginia. This team could conceivably finish the year at 10-2, but neither the Buffaloes, Cougars or Mountaineers carry the same brand equity in the eyes of the selection committee as do the Utes or even the Wildcats.

Not only is there no margin for error, the Cowboys will need several lucky breaks to get in this year.

Oklahoma State is essentially out of the College Football Playoff picture

For the Cowboys to prove me wrong, here is what needs to happen for them to qualify for the 12-team College Football Playoff. Oklahoma State must win out and finish the regular season at 10-2. They need at least one, if not both, between Kansas State and Utah to be one win worse than them at 9-3. Oklahoma State needs BYU to remain top 25-caliber, as it does with Colorado in some capacity.

Basically, Oklahoma State would need to get to Arlington as the shocking second-place finisher in the Big 12. Getting to No. 1 would require too much chaos to conceivably get my head around. From there, Oklahoma State would have to win the Big 12 to get either the No. 4 or even the No. 12 seed in the expanded playoff format. A third loss in the title bout will remove them from the equation.

In short, the Big 12 does not have enough brand equity anymore to get multiple teams into the expanded playoff this year with the losses of Oklahoma and Texas to the SEC. The winner will get in obviously, but there are no guarantees an 11-2 runner-up would still get in. A 10-2 at-large who finished the regular season in third place would need more help than I could possibly even imagine.

Oklahoma State may prove to be a good team in the end, but starting 0-2 in Big 12 play is ominous.