Oli Marmol and 3 other Cardinals who are basically gone after being eliminated from playoff contention

A 5-1 loss to the Cleveland Guardians on Friday officially eliminated the St. Louis Cardinals from postseason contention. Exactly .500 on the season with a week and change left, the Cards are among the most disappointing teams in the MLB. This was not exactly an unpredictable outcome, but the Cards have been a competitive staple for decades. It's just not common for this team to stew in mediocrity for an extended period of time.

Changes are inevitable. John Mozeliak appears to be entering his lame-duck season untouched, but Oli Marmol does not have the same level of job security. When a team underperforms for two seasons straight, it's hard not to pinpoint the manager as a potential weak point. Marmol was the youngest manager in the MLB at the time of his hiring, a gamble on innate talent over palpable experience.

He is not without his strengths, but Marmol has also been a constant source of consternation for the St. Louis fandom. He has not been dealt the best hand by the front office, but Marmol tends to misplay his cards (pun not intended, but appreciated). St. Louis needs a new voice in the locker room and a few key upgrades on the personnel front.

Let's assume, for a moment, that Marmol gets the boot. That would signal an acceptance from the higher-ups that this team, in this state, is not good enough. We can expect changes beyond the manager, starting with these outgoing free agents.

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3. SP Lance Lynn

In what was perhaps the most predictable blunder of the St. Louis offseason, the Cardinals followed up their marquee addition of Sonny Gray by signing several aging, past-prime vets to round out a patchwork starting rotation. Lance Lynn put together some of his best years in St. Louis, including an All-Star berth way back in 2012, but there was never any reason to believe he could reach those heights in 2024.

Now 37 and in his 13th MLB season, Lynn's stuff has lost its edge. All the metrics are bad. Lynn has never been a fireballer on the mound, but he's allowing more hard hits than he did in his prime. The command isn't what it used to be either, leaving Lynn especially prone to implosive outings.

He has not been a complete disaster this season — 3.84 ERA and 1.338 WHIP through 117.1 innings — but Lynn allows too many base runners and it will only get worse in the years to come, assuming he even keeps playing. Lynn was noncommittal when asked about retirement this season, but it has to be on the table. Going out with the team that drafted him would be a fitting end.

Lynn's contract includes an $11 million club option for next season, which feels a bit steep. Even if he does decide to pitch again, the Cardinals need to rejuvenate this rotation in a big way. Lynn could theoretically work out a new deal with St. Louis as a free agent, but it's easier to envision him going to a more stable contender in need of a decent fourth or fifth starter.

2. SP Kyle Gibson

Another example of the Cardinals' delusional offseason focus on past-prime aces, Kyle Gibson has been exactly as advertised in St. Louis. The 36-year-old led the American League in hits allowed a season ago. He was front and center for the Orioles' playoffs collapse. And now, he is once again allowing a ton of base-runners and getting knocked around for a far less talented Cardinals team.

Gibson has started 29 games for St. Louis, posting a 4.13 ERA and 1.334 WHIP with 146 strikeouts through 165.2 innings. He has been slightly better than last season, encouraging more soft contact and marginally upping his punch-out rate, but the Cardinals need to focus on getting younger in their rotation. Sonny Gray should be the wise vet leading the charge, not the young pup of the bunch.

Like Lynn, Gibson's contract includes a club option for next season, this one worth $12 million. That is just not a price the Cardinals should feel obligated to pay. There is a certain measure of dependability with Gibson as a late-rotation option, and perhaps St. Louis could view him as midseason trade fodder on an expiring contract. But, rather than risking another year of milquetoast production, the Cards should just cut bait and look elsewhere.

Gibson has been on a noticeable decline since his first and only All-Star berth in 2021. In his 12th MLB season, there's plenty of experience for Gibson to lean on, but the swings and misses he once forced with a dynamic five-pitch arsenal just aren't coming frequently enough these days. It's time for St. Louis to smash the reset button on this pitching staff.

1. 1B Paul Goldschmidt

Remember when Paul Goldschmidt won the MVP award two years ago? The dropoff has been precipitous for the Cardinals' first baseman. Goldy has gone from one of the most dominant all-around hitters in the sport to... fine. He's fine. The reaction to this season has probably been overblown due to the high bar Goldschmidt set for himself, but slashing .245/.304/.411 with 21 home runs and 60 RBI is an achievement for more than half the league.

Goldschmidt isn't "half the league," though, he is a former MVP and seven-time All-Star. He is supposed to be the bleeding heart of a dynamic and explosive St. Louis offense. Instead he has been one of its most disappointing elements. We have seen mild improvement after the All-Star break, but Goldschmidt appears to be transitioning into a new, slightly less productive stage of his career.

The track record for contracts dolled out to aging first basemen around the league is not great. Goldschmidt has long defended the corner at an exceptionally high level, but the defense is starting to crater. He's not a DH yet, but that is probably where Goldschmidt finishes his career. It doesn't help that first basemen are generally limited in their defensive impact to begin with.

Several contenders will take interest in Goldschmidt's pedigree and potential to elevate the back half of a lineup, but he's probably not batting cleanup for a winner at this point. Maybe we're overreacting to a one-off cold spell, but Goldschmidt is 37 years old with 14 years of major-league baseball under his belt. A major theme of this article has been St. Louis getting younger and finding fresh legs. That probably applies to first base, too.

Goldy is beloved in St. Louis and he deserves ample affection upon his departure, but it feels like Goldschmidt is destined for a new home in free agency.