Orioles have at least one bargaining chip in their favor with Corbin Burnes

The American League has several viable contenders, but few stand out more than the Baltimore Orioles. It will be fascinating to see how far Baltimore can push it with such a young and inexperienced group. What the O's lack in veteran know-how, they make up for with sheer, overwhelming talent.

On the surface, Baltimore has perhaps the most complete team in the AL. It's fair to be concerned about pitching depth after injuries to Grayson Rodriguez, Kyle Bradish, and John Means, but Corbin Burnes is among the best rotation anchors in baseball. Meanwhile, the O's should have no trouble coming by offensive production.

Gunnar Henderson is going to receive MVP votes. Anthony Santander has 41 home runs. The young core in Baltimore, from Adley Rutschman to Heston Kjerstad, is primed for an October coming out party. With Burnes on the mound, the O's check just about every box one could want from a contender. The Yankees will probably end up relegating Baltimore to a Wild Card slot, but as recent years have shown, it is more than possible for a fourth seed to reach the mountaintop.

Baltimore has also built a sustainable model for contention, their world-class farm system serving as a constant talent feeder for the big-league squad. If there's a weakness, it is Baltimore's historic lack of aggression on the free agent market. The O's have not handed out a multi-year contract in free agency since Mike Elias was hired as GM in 2018.

That specifically complicates the long-term outlook of Corbin Burnes.

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Orioles have one key advantage when trying to re-sign Corbin Burnes

When Baltimore dealt for Burnes last offseason, it was a widely celebrated move. For too long, the O's toiled in mediocrity while ownership dodged payroll hikes like the plague. Last season, however, Baltimore was right on the cusp of something special — No. 1 in the division with strong juggernaut vibes. What kept the O's from immediate postseason success was their lack of dependable pitching. Burnes addressed that issue and then some, giving Baltimore arguably the best starting pitcher in the entire league.

Injuries around Burnes have depleted the Orioles' rotation, but the 29-year-old former Brewer is a paragon of dependability. He has finished top-10 in Cy Young voting each of the last four seasons, including a first-place nod in 2021. This season should mark Burnes' fifth straight campaign in the top-10. He also brings invaluable playoff experience to an otherwise young group. He is, in some ways, Baltimore's most essential asset with October on the horizon.

Burnes' incredible output, durability, and consistency will all contribute what is sure to be a lucrative new contract in free agency this winter. Burnes will be the top arm on the market and, again, Baltimore has not inked a long-term free agent since 2018. Not only will Burnes demand multiple years on his contract; it could balloon north of $300 million in total value.

Traditionally, that is just not a price the Orioles can pay. But, with the postseason in reach and Burnes paving such a clear path to contention, Baltimore fans would be hard-pressed to endorse a front office that doesn't make a valiant effort to re-sign Burnes and with that move, establish a new precedent for the O's in free agency.

That is where the new ownership group, led by billionaire David Rubenstein, comes into play. Baltiimore has newer, younger money leading the organization now. Past ownership wouldn't have touched Burnes on an expiring contract, much less tried to re-sign him at season's end. New ownership, however, took the plunge and went all-in toward a World Series. It would be tough to justify that expense, that investment, if Baltimore doesn't even try to keep Burnes around beyond this season.

"But they should have much more financial flexibility than in the past," writes Jake Rill on MLB.com. "Rubenstein has publicly stated he'll be yielding to Elias on baseball decisions, and it's quite possible he'll be willing to hand out some big checks moving forward. Of course, Elias may caution Rubenstein when it comes to multi-year contracts, opting to instead operate the way he always has. Money is no longer the issue it once was, though."

Baltimore should keep Burnes if at all possible. The very best teams know when to spend money. It's impossible to know exactly how the market will pan out — New York, Los Angeles, and other markets can surely outbid Baltimore in a straight competition — but if Burnes goes deep into the playoffs with Baltimore, that could incline him toward a hometown discount. Moreover, Juan Soto and other big-ticket free agents may occupy the Mets, Yankees, and other potential Burnes suitors, leaving the door cracked wide open for the incumbent team.