Paris Olympics 200m preview: Noah Lyles isn't done yet

The men’s 200m dash at the Paris Olympics starts on August 5. On the heels of the tightest 100m final in recent memory, some of the world's fastest men are doubling back. The stakes are high, and the predictions are seismic in scale. Talk has advanced past Noah Lyles winning the double — now fans are wondering whether he can break the world record of 19.19 and if his two teammates from the USA can snag silver and bronze.

In previewing the event, it's important to highlight that the 100m semis and finals occurred on Sunday night in Paris, while the 200m first round occurs the next day on Monday evening. Some sprinters who ran the 100m might be tired and not perform to their potential, some might having nagging injuries that prevent them from making it to the starting blocks.

Forty-five men will compete in the first six heats of the 200m. Twenty-seven men qualified through the semis of the 100m dash the day before. Eight of those men are coming back for the 200m. Qualification for the 200m proceeds from the first round on Aug. 5, to the repechage round on Aug. 6 for those who finish but don't qualify, then to the semis on Aug. 7, and finally, the final on Aug. 8. It's possible that some of the favorites will rely on the later repechage — French for "second chance" — round to qualify to the semifinals.

Men's 200m Individual Previews

Noah Lyles triumphantly enters the 200m after having out-leaned Kishane Thompson for the gold medal in the 100m. He is the overwhelming favorite now, and his 19.31 is the fastest personal best in the field.

In his heat, Lyles is joined by Canadian Andre de Grasse, one of the most decorated championship sprinters still actively competing. De Grasse failed to qualify for the final in the 100m, even after running a sharp 9.98. Yes, several men with sub-10 performances did not make the Olympic final. De Grasse, who turns 30 in a few months, had been considered past his prime, but with his 100m performance he still has what it takes to make the final. Can he earn his third consecutive Olympic medal in the 200m? This will be the most difficult test of his career.

Heat 1 is intriguing in that it features 400m world record holder Wayde van Niekirk. Now 32, he hasn't been the same since tearing his ACL in 2017. A string of sub-20 performances, however unlikely, could get him to the final. He'll line up next to Joe Fahnbulleh, an American who competes for Liberia. Fahnbulleh, known for a lumbering start but incredible top-end speed, has qualified for several consecutive world finals in the 200m. He's had a rough season so far and poor blockwork will have him left behind in the semifinals in these Olympics.

Kenny Bednarek has run 19.59 this season and was a bit of a surprise qualifier to the US team in the 100m. He made it all the way to the final in Paris where he ran 9.88, which was good for only seventh place. He's more of a 200m runner. With his short-sprint credentials proved beyond any doubt, he's a gold medal contender.

Erriyon Knighton is the third American, and he's also ranked No. 3 in the world. Knighton, who is 20 years old, finished second in the World Championship in Budapest in 2023. He hasn't looked as sharp this season and his racing calendar was impacted by a suspension due to a positive drug test that was later found to have originated from contaminated meat.

Letsile Tebogo of Botswana is the main threat to the Americans. He has run 19.50 at his best and will surely be seeking vengeance after a 9.86 100m earned him a disappointing sixth in the 100m final. Zharnel Hughes, who featured in Netflix's Sprint documentary, will try to bounce back from his failure to qualify for the 100m final. Tarsis Orogot, who ran for Alabama this season and competes internationally for Uganda, ran a shocking 19.75 (+1.0 m/s wind) at the SEC Championships this year but failed to break 20 seconds at the NCAA Championships.

Can Noah Lyles Break the 200m World Record of 19.19?

Noah Lyles is now the overwhelming favorite to win the 200m dash, with the odds having shifted even further in his favor after his 100m win on Sunday night. Lyles, not known for a particularly fast start or early race, relies on his top-end speed. The 200 gives Lyles more space to reach his top speed and then blow away the competition. Consensus puts him at an 80 percent chance to win gold. What about his chances of dropping his PR from 19.31 below Usain Bolt’s world record of 19.19?

Though separated by one tenth of a second, 19.19 and 19.31 are in the same realm of performance. For example, Lyles’ 19.31, which had a +0.4 m/s wind, would be adjusted to approximately a 19.20 if he had the maximum allowable +2.0 m/s wind that day in Eugene in 2022. The more practical question to ask now is not what the wind will be, but whether Noah Lyles has improved since his 2022 peak.

Noah ran 9.95 in the 100m in the same season that he ran 19.31. He was considered a 200m specialist. He ran 9.83 and 19.47 the year after. This year, he has run 9.79 and 19.53 (at USAs). Improvements in his start and early race acceleration, as evidenced by his emergence as the best 100m runner in the world, should carry over to the 200m final. Lyles should win easily, and for the first time since Usain Bolt last stepped on the track, there’s probably a 10 percent chance that Lyles can run under 19.20.

Can the USA sweep the podium?

There is little doubt that Noah Lyles will win the 200m. In Budapest in 2023, the US went 1-2-5. That was Lyles, Knighton, Bednarek. Those three men return this season with Lyles and Bednarek having both having shown meaningful improvement over the 100m distance.

A single country sweeping the podium in any Olympic track event is rare, but it happens. In fact, the last men's event to be swept was the 200m at the 2012 Olympics, with Jamaica's Usain Bolt, Yohan Blake, and Warren Weir. The USA has swept the 200m quite a few times: in 2004, 1984, 1956, 1952, 1932, and 1904. Though this belies how difficult it is for a country to take the top three finishing spots while only being allowed to enter three competitors, it turns out that the men's 200m is the most-swept Olympic track event.

This season's 200m standings show that it's the United States versus Letsile Tebogo with a slight chance of a challenge from Tarsis Orogot. Zharnel Hughes, Joe Fahnbulleh, or Andre de Grasse haven't shown much over 200m this season, but will certainly run season's bests through the rounds. Qualifying to the final will be difficult for athletes who can't run close to 19.90, and that list is almost exclusively American.

This eight man final will likely be a redo of Budapest. It will, surely, be composed of the three Americans, Tebogo, Fahnbulleh, de Grasse, Hughes, and a wildcard like Orogot. What are the chances of a sweep? Some crackpot math can help with this prediction.

Lyles has an 82 percent chance to win outright, and probably something like a 95 percent chance to medal against the field. Deleting Lyles from the eight-person final, Bednarek, who has roughly a 12 percent chance to win in a field that includes Lyles, probably has a 35 percent chance to place first or second against the remaining field. Knighton, who only has a 5 percent chance to win outright, has a much better chance against a field of six with his compatriots removed. Knighton's all-time best is 19.49, one hundredth better than Tebogo's best, so even though he hasn't had a great season, he matches up pretty well. Against the remaining field, Knighton probably has a 25 percent chance of triumph.

The cumulative chance of all these outcomes — resulting in an American sweep in the men's 200 — is about 6 percent. There is a decent chance of this monumental accomplishment for the US sprinting team, the first Olympic men's sweep since 2012. For those interested in following the action, the men's 200 starts at 1:55 p.m. EST on Monday, August 5.