Paul Skenes could be on wrong end of a surprising NL Rookie of the Year upset

Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes has lived up to the billing of being a generational pitching prospect through the early stages of his rookie campaign. 

Not only is Skenes undoubtedly one of (if not the best) young hurlers in baseball, but he's among the best in the MLB. Perhaps nothing is more reflective of how incredible he's been than being named the National League All-Star starter as a first-year player. 

Skenes has been remarkably dominant thus far in his inaugural season in the majors. He's 6-2 with a 2.25 ERA, 0.957 WHIP and 115 strikeouts across 92 innings pitched. His tremendous efforts have put him firmly in the driver's seat to win NL Rookie of the Year, or so the betting odds suggest.

While Skenes has understandably captured much of the attention, there's another newcomer in the NL deserving of similar praise and recognition: Center fielder Jackson Merrill.

Merrill has been sensational for the San Diego Padres and could give Skenes a run for his money in the Rookie of the Year race.

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Jackson Merrill could swipe NL Rookie of the Year from Paul Skenes

Like Skenes, Merrill earned All-Star honors as a rookie. The Padres outfielder is batting an impressive .294/.326/.488 with 17 home runs, 64 RBIs and 13 stolen bases across 432 plate appearances. But his case goes beyond the numbers.

As extraordinary as Skenes has been, he made his big league debut on May 11. By then, Merrill already had 39 games with the Padres. The latter should have the edge, considering Rookie of the Year and other league distinctions get decided from a season-long perspective. 

Moreover, Skenes is a pitcher who takes the mound once every five or so days. Conversely, Merrill is an everyday player for the Padres and has been vital to their success. 

San Diego's place in the standings compared to Pittsburgh should strengthen the argument for Merrill to win Rookie of the Year over Skenes.

Per Baseball Reference, the Padres have a 94.5 percent chance of reaching the playoffs. Sitting at 66-52, Merrill has been at the forefront of it all for San Diego. Meanwhile, the Pirates are 56-61 with minimal chance of reaching the postseason.

Presumably, Skenes will become the 2024 NL Rookie of the Year, barring any unforeseen circumstances. Nonetheless, Merrill merits consideration performance for the prestigious accolade.