Pete Alonso's free agency is more complicated than Mets fans think

Pete Alonso has struggled in the final year of his contract, casting more doubt upon his upcoming free agency. What once felt like a rather simple decision — to pay or not to pay, to sign or not to sign — has transformed into a convoluted mess of uncertainty. The New York Mets have far more to consider than whether or not Alonso deserves a monster contract.

It has been a rocky campaign at the plate for Alonso, especially lately. He's slashing .212/.297/.445 on the season and is riding a particularly gnarly 3-for-35 slump. His 2-for-5 evening in Tuesday's win over St. Louis is a positive sign, but Alonso is laying bare his weaknesses ahead of a critical offseason for the Mets.

As Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic points out, Alonso's free agency goes well beyond contract negotiations and finding a price point the Mets are comfortable with. There's a chance that outside circumstances drive Alonso away, with his agent — Scott Boras — holding more cards than your typical advisor. In fact, if Boras decides to prioritize other clients, it could spell the end for Alonso's tenure in the Big Apple.

Scott Boras holds more cards than he should in Pete Alonso-Mets free agency decision

Generally, Scott Boras favors testing the open waters and landing the heftiest contract possible for his clients. That has worked in the past, but his hardball approach also led to short-term, prove-it deals for Blake Snell, Matt Chapman, Jordan Montgomery, and Cody Bellinger. All in the same offseason. When the front offices call his bluff, Boras doesn't necessarily have a counter.

His biggest trump card is the volume of quality players under his management umbrella. In addition to Alonso, two of the biggest free agents of the 2025 class — Juan Soto and Corbin Burnes — are Boras clients.

What Rosenthal proposes is rather simple: Boras could prioritize pushing Soto and Burnes to the Mets, with Steve Cohen expected to open up his checkbook after an atypically conservative 2024 winter. If New York throws major guaranteed money at Soto and Burnes, that is great for Boras. It's not great for Alonso.

The value of first basemen is waning in today's MLB. It's a position of limited defensive importance and Alonso doesn't have chops at any other position. He isn't exactly great at the corner, either. Alonso is also heavily reliant on power offensively, with a hard-hit rate (30.2 percent) that currently lands in MLB's 13th percentile. If that number doesn't improve as the season progresses, New York will have a hard time investing in a 30-year-old defensive liability with poor contact numbers and negative long-term indicators.

On the surface, Alonso is a beloved fan favorite in New York and a three-time All-Star. It's cut and dry. Pay the man, he has earned it with years of excellent service. As the Mets look to improve the roster, however, Boras has a chance to direct better, more lucrative clients to New York, in turn squeezing Alonso out of the picture.

This is a tangled web — one that won't be unfolded until the offseason. A team is going to throw money at Alonso. He's too explosive at his peak to not land a hearty contract. But, the Mets could turn their focus elsewhere, as could his agent. That leaves Alonso in a tricky spot, especially if his current slump continues.

The Mets are 18-18, with enough juice to compete for a postseason spot if the cards break right. The future looms large, however, and we really don't know what Alonso's 2025 season will look like, or where it will be played.