Phillies early dominance comes with a huge roach in the cheesesteak
The Philadelphia Phillies are on a roll with the best record in baseball. They've been dominant along the way, boasting a +80 differential, the second-best margin in MLB.
So why are there still some serious questions about whether they're truly contenders?
It has a lot to do with the schedule they've been dominant against.
Phillies have played just one team with a winning record
As Bob Nightengale pointed out, Philadelphia has only faced one team above .500 (the Braves) and they won't face a team that holds a winning record (as of May 19) until June when they take on the Brewers.
Series against the Rangers, Rockies, Giants and Cardinals need to be played before then. Since Texas lost to the Angels on Sunday, they will open against the Phillies at 24-24. They'd need to win the series to claim a winning record. And that wouldn't help improve Philadelphia's current 1-2 record against those teams.
Colorado is locked into a losing record but the Giants have a chance of being a winning team after sweeping the Rockies. If they come out of their road trip against the Pirates and Mets +3 wins they'll be above .500. The Cardinals would need to win seven of their nine games against the Orioles, Cubs and Reds to make it there as well.
So yeah, it's pretty plausible that series with the Brewers is indeed the first one for the Phillies against a team above .500 since March.
As it stands, Philadelphia is at the bottom of MLB in strength of schedule rating.
But is that a reason to discount the Phillies?
The Dodgers rank 27th in strength of schedule. The Yankees aren't far behind in 26th. However, both of those teams are more proven against the kinds of teams they're likely to face in the playoffs. New York is a league-best 15-7 against teams above .500. Los Angeles is 6-3.
The Phillies? They're 1-2, a sample size far too small to determine much of anything.
The issue isn't that the Phillies can't beat good teams. It's that they haven't played enough good teams for us to know one way or another.
That will eventually change. June brings a series against the Orioles. July features back-to-back-to-back series against the Cubs, Braves and Dodgers.
We'll know a lot more about the Phillies by the trade deadline.