Former Phillies GM casts doubts on any Luis Robert Jr. trade talks
The Philadelphia Phillies' trade deadline has been both loud and quiet. Dave Dombrowski has made a couple noteworthy moves, adding Austin Hays from the Baltimore Orioles and Carlos Estevez from the Los Angeles Angels. The former should help as a potent right-handed bat in left field. The latter is one of the hottest closers in baseball.
And yet, fans are not satisfied. The Phillies are in the middle of a prolonged slump: 3-6 since the All-Star break and playing .500 baseball, 20-20, since the London Series in early June. At 65-40, there's no doubting the Phillies' capacity for winning, and winning big. This is a battle-tested postseason team with an MVP frontrunner in Bryce Harper and the MLB's best pitching rotation.
The issues are marginal, but the margins often come back to haunt teams in the playoffs. We've seen this story with the Phillies' arch rivals to the south, the Atlanta Braves. A minor weakness on the mound, or not quite enough depth at an injured position, can leave the most dominant regular season team woefully vulnerable under the bright October lights.
On the surface, the Hays trade addresses a key need — a platoon for the left-handed specialist Brandon Marsh in left field. And yet, that leaves Johan Rojas, easily the Phillies' weakest all-around hitter, planted in center field. Rob Thomson plans on platooning Marsh and Rojas in center, but Rojas' .403 OPS against lefties is hardly worthy of that status. The Phillies still need one more reliable power bat in the outfield to really lock this thing down.
A popular target in the realm of theory has been Chicago White Sox slugging machine Luis Robert Jr., but former Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. is skeptical such a deal transpires.
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Former GM Ruben Amaro Jr. throws cold water on Luis Robert Jr.-Phillies concept
Dave Dombrowski has already said outright that he's comfortable with the Phillies' roster as is. That doesn't mean he won't pursue more upgrades — his reputation for aggressive maneuvering is well-earned — but many of the Phillies' blockbuster additions have occurred through free agency, not trades. Plus, it's worth noting that Philadelphia coughed up two top-10 prospects for Estevez, in addition to a couple young rotation pieces for Hays. The Phils need to go all-in, but there is a point at which aggression bleeds into shortsightedness.
Robert is a unique potential target — 25 years old with an All-Star on his resumé and a clean positional fit. He would plug easily into center field, allowing Hays and Marsh to split reps in left field and leaving the Phillies' lineup as close to bulletproof as any in baseball. He has a few years of team control left, too, so he wouldn't be a rental. He'd have the chance to stick in Philadelphia for a while.
The question posed by Amaro is valid, though. Aidan Miller and Justin Crawford are Philadelphia's No. 2 and No. 3 prospects, respectively. Their No. 1 prospect, right-handed pitcher Andrew Painter, is recovering from Tommy John surgery and thus uninvolved in trade rumors. The Phils giving up either of their best position prospects, especially a potential long-term outfield solution in Crawford, would qualify as a huge risk. And it's the sort of package Chicago will be looking for, as Robert should draw plenty of suitors.
It has been a bumpy season for Robert individually, made worse by the collective incompetence of this White Sox team. He's batting .210 with a .722 OPS, knocking 12 home runs and stealing 13 bases in 53 games (200 ABs). It's easy to pin the struggles on an early-season hip injury, but Robert has always been strikeout-prone, which is a trait the Phillies are all too familiar with between Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos.
It's fair to have reservations about Robert. Factor in the steep cost and Dombrowski's public stance, and we can probably cross out Philadelphia from the list of realistic Robert landing spots. But... never say never.