Phillies magic number: Counting down possible playoff berth [Updated Sept. 7]

The Philadelphia Phillies have been rather dominant for all of 2024. Their roster was loaded with All-Stars, placing more pitchers on the NL All-Star team than we have ever seen.

They're led by Bryce Harper, their superstar first baseman, as well as Trea Turner, Zack Wheeler and so many others.

This talented roster has led to them jumping out to a six-game division lead with just about a month left in the 2024 regular season. As we enter September, many around baseball will begin talking about "magic numbers."

Here is all you need to know about magic numbers and what this means for Philadelphia.

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What is a Magic Number?

Here's how MLB.com defines a magic number:

"In baseball, the phrase 'magic number' is used to determine how close a team is to making the playoffs or winning the division. It becomes prominent every year in September as teams begin closing in on clinching."

Basically, this number is used to identify how close a team is, mathematically, to clinching a playoff berth or winning a division title. Each team begins the year with the same magic number, but it only becomes important to track as the season comes close to concluding.

How a Magic Number is calculated

The easiest way to explain this is to express that it's the number of outcomes that need to happen in favor of the Phillies in order to secure the playoff spot or NL East title.

Any time the Phillies win or the second-place team (the Atlanta Braves) lose, the magic number will improve for the division title. With enough Phillies wins or Braves losses, the number will reach zero, meaning the Phillies have won the NL East.

Current Magic Number for Phillies

It's quite simple to calculate this incredibly important number for the Phillies. We need to take the number of games in the regular season, 162, and then subtract the Phillies wins and the Braves losses.

The current Phillies magic number for the NL East is 14

As for their playoff berth magic number, it can be calculated in the same way, but using the seventh ranked team (New York Mets) instead of the Braves. This is because the seventh-ranked team is the team they would need to finish above to get the sixth spot in the National League.

There you have it. The Phillies magic number is 13 for a playoff berth and 14 for their first division title in over a decade.

Historical Context

The Phillies haven't come out on top of the NL East since 2011, so the magic number in the NL East typically hasn't been one they were chasing to zero.

Philadelphia landed in the playoffs each of the last two seasons, falling short of the division title both times. In their history, they've made the postseason 16 different times, winning their division 13 times.

Key Games to Watch

The most important games in a postseason or division race are those games against the teams you're competing for the spot against (duh). This gives the team full control over their outcome as well as the ability to drop their magic number by two games with each time they beat the team right behind them.

So, obviously the key games to watch for the Phillies will be the remaining three games against division rival Atlanta and the remaining seven games against the Mets.

Following a game one win over the Braves, the Phillies have the chance to sweep Atlanta this week, dropping their NL East magic number all the way down to 16 by the end of the weekend.