Picking Drake Maye inside the top five will get someone fired, one NFL analyst says

Drake Maye is not for everyone. Although he is a first-round lock, a up-and-down final season playing for the North Carolina Tar Heels could result in him being the fourth quarterback taken this spring. He was essentially a guarantee to be No. 2 overall pick behind only USC's Caleb Williams ... until he was not... I am not the biggest fan of Maye, but even I can see some issues in Merril Hoge's assessment.

The NFL analyst spoke to Henry Lake on WCCO late last week, essentially ripping the poor kid to shreds. Not to beat around the bush, Hoge said on the program that taking Maye inside the top five picks in the 2024 NFL Draft will get a general manager fired. To me, that is incredibly harsh, but I will admit that Maye has the highest variance of any quarterback that could go in the first round this year.

While the downside with Maye is certainly there, he has a very high ceiling if he goes to the right team.

“Drake Maye is the kind of player that will get you fired. Especially if you draft him in the top five or top three, he's going to get you fired."

Hoge then compared Maye to former Liberty star Malik Willis, who plays for the Tennessee Titans.

“Willis might be the only guy that I can think of that is as erratic as Maye. I studied him for two years ... I watched every one of his games last year ... His last game against [North Carolina State] was probably the most embarrassing display I’ve seen from a guy who is supposed to be an elite franchise quarterback ... He’s erratic. He’s everywhere.”

Finally, Hoge suggested that like Willis, Maye's athleticism is overrated and won't help him in the NFL.

“People think his athleticism will translate but people want him to run and they will bust him up. He is not athletic enough. If he doesn’t get down and learn how to do that, he won’t last until Week 10.”

There is a lot to unpack, but I will do my best to see where Hoge is coming from and will go from there.

Merril Hoge thinks North Carolina QB Drake Maye may be a massive bust

Where things stand now, I would take Maye No. 3 overall if I were calling the shots in the New England Patriots' war room. Williams is going first to the Chicago Bears, and I would take LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels second overall if I were leading the Washington Commanders' operation. You could say it was a matter of preference, but I like Daniels' upside and higher floor way more than I do Maye's.

Could Maye be a total bust? It wouldn't shock me honestly, as it matters more for him than any other potential first-round prospect as to where he lands. I question if he has that necessary dog inside him, to be a leader of alpha males. The talent is off the charts, but the NFL is a what have you done for me lately league. I don't know if he is my least favorite quarterback draft prospect, but he is not No. 1.

Now that I have gotten that out of the way, I cannot really get behind Hoge's notion that whoever drafts Maye inside the top five will get fired. This has more to do with understanding how the draft board works. It is hard for me to visualize a scenario where Williams, Daniels, Maye and Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy make it out of the top six, much less the top 10. They are all going high.

In recent years, we have seen plenty of first-round quarterbacks bomb. While some of the general managers who drafted those players no longer work for that team either, whiffing in a first-round pick is not a death sentence. John Lynch has made a career of that with the San Francisco 49ers. Outside of the Zach Wilson debacle, I would say that Joe Douglas has done a fine job with the New York Jets.

Ultimately, you will have to live with the consequences that come with taking Maye that high. He could be the next Aaron Rodgers, or he could be a cruddier version of Andrew Luck... His physical traits lead me to believe that with the right coaching he could be a lesser variation of the next Josh Allen. I think offensive coaches like Alex Van Pelt, Kevin O'Connell and Kliff Kingsbury can set him up for success.

I don't know if I would trade up for the guy, but I do not have a problem taking Maye inside the top five.