Predicting which football programs Pac-12 should target next for conference expansion

The Pac is back! Well, almost. Thursday the current two-team conference announced it would be adding four Mountain West schools to its ranks by 2026 in an attempt to reinvent itself.

Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State and San Diego State all accepted invitations to join the Pac-12, which would raise the conference membership to six.

However, NCAA regulations stipulate any conference that wishes to be FBS eligible must have at least eight teams. The Pac-12 is currently in a two-year grace period after ten of its previous members jumped ship for the Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC in July.

So, in order for the new-look Pac-12 to be NCAA compliant, here are some additional schools it should target to bolster its ranks.

Who should the Pac-12 add after the 4 Mountain West schools?

Here's who the experts are picking

These programs are most commonly picked among experts, such as On3's Pete Nakos, to receive the pseudo-Power Conference invite. Some were also snubbed in the most recent realignment chaos.

Memphis has a strong football and basketball program that would lend legitimacy to the Pac-12's athletic renewal. It also has the cash to compete at a top level, securing a deal with FedEx that provides it with $25 million over the next five years in NIL funding.

Tulane would provide the Pac-12 with access to the Big Easy and the central time zone in tandem with American Athletic Conference-mate Memphis. Its football program has shown flashes of brilliance in recent seasons and could raise its ceiling with recruits if it joins the reborn conference.

Cal and Stanford both left the Pac-12 this year for the ACC in an odd matchmaking experiment. Now that the ACC is dealing with its own internal revolt (thanks to lawsuits from Clemson and Florida State) then perhaps they'll reconsider the cross-country travel that comes with their new membership. However, it would be interesting to see how the Pac-12 handles potential traitors crawling back home.

UTSA has a football program on the rise, notching three straight nine or more win seasons since 2021. However, if football is all it can offer, then perhaps the Pac-12 thinks twice given it has a proud history of college basketball prowess.

If the Pac-12 wants to truly be savage in this wild west age of college athletics, it should just go ahead and kill off the Mountain West Conference altogether. Air Force provides another crucial Rocky Mountain market to the equation in Colorado Springs and New Mexico was already featured heavily in previous members' schedules. Wyoming would round out a northern region of the country that seems to be dominated by FCS programs.

Additional options the Pac-12 should consider

Some of these schools aren't out of the question but the logistics behind their moves would cause plenty of headaches. The others probably have no hope of an invitation. But in a perfect world, a Pac-12 with them in it would really shake up the FBS.

UNLV: The Pac-12 is already based in Las Vegas after leaving San Francisco in 2023 and its relationship with the strip is even stronger. Previous football championship games and basketball tournaments have been hosted there and the prospect of more games at Allegiant Stadium would certainly help sell the issue to the Rebels.

Gonzaga: Maybe the Bulldogs are the answer to the UTSA question. Gonzaga would likely only be considered for basketball membership as it doesn't have an FBS football program. The Big 12 and Big East couldn't get anything done with Gonzaga in recent years so perhaps something newer and closer to home could be enticing.

Texas State: The natural rival to UTSA, the Bobcats have only seen a very recent resurgence in its football program and offer little in other sports. But given it has a history in the old Western Athletic Conference there could be some intrinsic value to exploring them as an addition at a later date.

North and South Dakota State: These perennial FCS national championship contenders should be on the Pac-12's radar at the very least. If James Madison could make the jump last year, these two programs could be enticed to make an even bigger leap. They would immediately compete against teams that already get paid hefty amounts to visit in the early weeks.

Montana State: Another top FCS program, Montana State would provide a natural regional rival to teams like Oregon State and Wyoming. Leaving the FCS to FBS logistical issues aside, it would just be plain fun to see the Bobcats reintroduce chaotic elements into the Pac-12.

Montana and Idaho: Bring back the Vandals and Grizzlies! Little did you know, Idaho and Montana were members of the Pac-12 during the early half of the 21st century. Idaho joined in 1922 and departed in 1959 while Montana joined in 1924 and left in 1950. Both schools' football and basketball programs need a lot of work but every conference has its basement dwellers, right?

Prediction time: Who's most likely to be invited?

Experts like Nakos are pretty spot-on with their analysis of teams like Memphis and Tulane. They have the name value and the athletics to deliver heavy competitive advantages. The Tigers and Green Wave would be the likeliest choices for the Pac-12 to consider inviting and round out the requisite eight for conference compliance.

However, when has a minimum number ever stopped a conference from adding as much as it wants? The Pac-12 would be wise to select UNLV as a ninth member and seriously court Gonzaga as a basketball-only participant.

Past 2026, if the conference doesn't experience any more obstacles, it would probably like to fulfill its name and get back to 12 full-time members. By that point, Cal and Stanford may have jumped from one sinking ship to another in the ACC and could return home. If not, there's always the remainder of the Mountain West to suck dry.