Predicting when Bo Nix will make first start for Denver Broncos

The Denver Broncos reached to select Bo Nix with the No. 12 pick in the NFL Draft. Maybe it all works out, of course. The draft is inherently a crapshoot and QB is the most valuable position. If Nix can turn into the Broncos' everyday starter for the next decade, this will go down as one of Sean Payton's brightest ideas.

That said, the lukewarm reaction in Denver and across the NFL community is telling. Nix was a superstar in his final season at Oregon, but it's hard not to point to the notoriously bad Pac-12 defenses that Nix played against, as well as the extremely QB-friendly system he occupied for the Ducks.

Oregon relied heavily on screen passes and short-range dimes, allowing Nix to set up explosive WRs to create yards after the catch. Nix has mobility outside the pocket and a ton of high-level experience to draw on, but he lacks the top-tier arm strength we typically see in highly touted QB prospects. Maybe accuracy and know-how are enough to get by. Sean Payton is a great quarterbacks coach, generally. But, it's certainly a pick for which the merits are up for debate.

Nix is expected to begin the season as QB2 behind Broncos returnee Jarrett Stidham, who took over for Russell Wilson down the stretch of last season. Stidham completed 60.6 percent of his passes for 496 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception in three appearances (two starts). The 27-year-old, who made previous stops in Las Vegas and New England, is entering his fifth NFL season.

Predicting when Bo Nix will take over Broncos starting QB job

There are a few factors to consider here, but the odds are stacked in Nix's favor.

First off — he's old. The dude started five seasons in college, three at Auburn and two at Oregon. It took a while for Nix to deliver on the NFL Draft hype, but once he did, it was truly remarkable. He threw for 45 touchdowns compared to only three interceptions as a senior, completing a whopping 77.4 percent of his passes. The polish Nix has compared to his rookie peers could expedite his path to QB1 duties.

We also have to consider that Jarrett Stidham is exclusively a bridge quarterback. There isn't a soul in the Broncos organization that views Stidham as more than a long-term backup. He earned Sean Payton's trust late in the season and benefitted from Russell Wilson's strange exodus, but Stidham is only going to stay on the field if the Broncos are winning games. Even if the Broncos are competitive, it's not like Stidham is married into the QB1 slot. Denver doesn't take Nix at No. 12 if there isn't belief in his ability to rapidly climb the ladder as a 24-year-old rookie.

Thirdly, and perhaps most importantly, Nix is Sean Payton's favorite human being on the planet. Fine, that is a slight hyperbole. But Payton was clearly the driving force behind the Nix pick, in large part due to how impressed he was with the Oregon product's interview. Pro tip to future NFL prospects: stuff a backpack full of athletic tape and coaches will fall head over heels in love.

Payton reportedly feels as strongly about Nix as he did about Patrick Mahomes in 2017, when Payton fell one pick short of selecting the modern era's greatest QB. That is patently absurd, but good lord does it prove that Nix has the confidence of his new coaching staff.

That means we should expect Nix to take over the starting gig sooner than later. Stidham is utterly okay. A career backup moonlighting as the Broncos' so-called starter. If Nix doesn't win the job outright in training camp, it won't take long for the winds of change to come a-blowin' in the Rocky Mountains. We know Zach Wilson won't get the job. It is Nix's to lose, or at least it should be.

Official prediction: Nix will start in Week 1. He is the Broncos' dude, for better or worse. It's time for Sean Payton to put his money where his draft pick is.