Predicting when Florida Gators will fire their head coach Billy Napier

After what we saw last week in The Swamp, I have a hard time seeing Florida Gators head coach Billy Napier making it through the 2024 college football season. This was a team I projected to go 4-8. It was not going to be entirely his fault, as Florida entered the year with the hardest schedule in the Power Four. However, the brutal home loss to in-state rival Miami has sounded a five-alarm fire.

We may only be entering Week 2 of the season, but nobody's seat is hotter in the Power Four than Napier's right now. I don't like to put a coach on blast and have him out of a job before the end of the season, but we may have reached the critical point of no return when it comes to Napier. The fanbase has just about had it with him and we have to wonder if Scott Stricklin will be safe if Napier were to go.

Here is Florida's remaining schedule after falling to Miami in Week 1. It is as brutal as you think it is...

There are a few games on here where I think it could be Napier's last game leading Florida. The Ain't No Sunshine Showdown at Florida State feels like an obvious one, but there is a chance he may be gone before we even get to that point. I have six more where I think it could be a possibility: After Mississippi State, UCF, Kentucky, Georgia, LSU and Ole Miss. Which of those makes the most sense?

Let's unpack those seven games in question to come to the right conclusion of when it may happen.

Florida football: When could Billy Napier be coaching his last game?

I would say after Florida State is pretty likely. There is a chance Stricklin and the administration may want Napier to keep taking all those L's while the find his eventual replacement. For the sake of this exercise, let's just say it is the second-most likely, as that may be too late in the season. It is an easy point of separation, but again, we may be reaching a point of critical mass where change must come.

I would say after UCF is the least likely of the seven. This is a game Florida needs to win to have any chance of getting to a bowl game. UCF is only entering its second season at the Power Four level. We know that Gus Malzahn can really coach. He might be a suitable replacement for Napier at season's end. It could be a total referendum on the Florida program if they were to UCF, but don't count on it.

The next most likely is at Mississippi State. Assuming a win over Samford followed by a loss to Texas A&M, and then another defeat in Starkville would have Florida sitting at a desperate 1-3 overall and 0-2 in SEC play. Keep in mind that this is not only Jeff Lebby's first year at the Bulldogs head coach, but Stricklin used to work and go to school at Mississippi State. I can see he and Napier gone with a loss.

After that, I would say it could be LSU. This former cross-divisional rivalry game is sandwiched between the Texas date and the Ole Miss one. The timing is not great, but it could be an intriguing time for the administration to rip the band-aid off. Florida may already be eliminated from bowl eligibility considerations. This would be a way to get out ahead of the offseason coaching carousel.

Next up would be after a loss to Kentucky. Florida used to own UK in football, but it has become more and more of a rivalry game ever since Mark Stoops took over in Lexington. Prior to him getting to UK, the Wildcats were as bad as they have been under Napier. This SEC game would occur right before Florida's annual bye before the Cocktail Party down in Jacksonville. The timing makes some sense.

The last two, besides the Florida State game, of course, are about equally likely. Napier could be out after Florida's final SEC game vs. Ole Miss just as easily as he could be after losing to arch rival Georgia in Jacksonville. These are playoff-caliber teams situated in the back-half of Florida's schedule. While I would not be shocked if it is after Georgia, the timing feels better after Ole Miss.

So in order of most likely to least likely, I would go with after Ole Miss, Florida State, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State and UCF. The Texas A&M game is too early and the Texas date is too soon after the Cocktail Party. No matter what you think about when Napier could be let go, the Gators got slaughtered in one of their most winnable games of the season. This team might be going 2-10...

If it is not the end of the season, it is after "Cupcake" Week or it will be after the trip to Jacksonville.