Predicting when Miami’s luck will run out after squeaking out back-to-back nail-biters

Miami likes to live dangerously. After surviving a close scare at home vs. rival Virginia Tech last week, the Hurricanes nearly fell on the road to a feisty California Golden Bears team. It was a one-point victory over Cal at Berkeley, one that was not without controversy. I don't know if the ACC officials are in bed with their league's best shot at winning a national title, but Miami is going to get exposed soon.

Truth be told, I had the Hurricanes going 11-1 this season, but I projected their lone loss on the year would be at Cal. This was every bit the trap game, as the Canes nearly fell into the bear pit. Did the Channel 4 News Team save them? I am no Veronica Corningstone, but Baxters don't grow on trees. This Miami team is not going to remain this lucky for the rest of the year. They will lose a game, or two.

Here is what Miami's remaining regular season schedule looks like. What games could they drop?

Of the six left on the slate, let's cross of home vs. Florida State and home vs. Wake Forest. Miami is winning both of those games. I would be utterly shocked if the Seminoles or the Demon Deacons got the best of them. As for the other four games, I think there is a chance that either Louisville, Duke, Georgia Tech or Syracuse could upend Miami. It wouldn't shock me if two of them got the Canes...

Let's unpack the likelihood of those four potential losses to see when Miami is going to lose first.

When could Miami Hurricanes suffer their first loss of the college season?

Of the four potential losses on the horizon, I see the Louisville game being the least likely. Miami will be on a bye this week. Louisville has dropped a pair of games to Notre Dame and Virginia in back-to-back weeks. While there is a chance of Miami looking ahead to Florida State, I would think the Cardinals would have had a better shot of beating the Hurricanes next Saturday, as opposed to two.

The third likeliest spot for Miami's first loss would be at Syracuse to end the season. Miami has a bye heading into that road game. While Syracuse looks the part through six weeks, a lot can change between now and the end of the season. Not saying Syracuse is going to fall off precipitously, but the Orange were a borderline bowl team entering the season anyway. Plus, I think Miami falls before them.

For my money, I think you can honestly flip a coin between the Hurricanes' first two games of November as their first likely loss: Home vs. Duke and at Georgia Tech. With Duke, it comes after the Florida State game, meaning we could potentially see the Hurricanes let down a bit. Factor in this being a revenge game for former Miami head coach Manny Diaz, and Miami is on upset alert here.

Should Miami get to 9-0, I think there is a chance they lose on the road to Georgia Tech in Atlnata immediately after the Duke game. Georgia Tech is at a talent disadvantage, but the Yellow Jackets are well coached. They may play a tough schedule, but the Jackets were able to get to a bowl game last year because of Mario Cristobal's meathead-ed stupidity. His refusal to take a knee cost The U dearly.

If I had to pick when Miami's first loss is coming, I would say the home date vs. Duke feels ominous.