Projecting Jordan Love’s next contract extension with the Packers

Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love effectively bet on himself last offseason by bypassing the fifth-year option on his rookie deal that would have secured him $20 million for the 2024 NFL campaign, instead signing an incentive-laden one-year contract with nearly half the guaranteed money, proving his worth as the long-term signal-caller this past season.

Now, Love is extension-eligible yet again, only this time the Packers are at his mercy in negotiations after he guided the youngest roster the league has seen in six years to a 9-8 record and NFC Divisional Round playoff appearance. So, what will it cost Green Bay to ensure their 2020 first-round pick signs a new long-term pact after looking the part of a franchise quarterback in his first year as the full-time starter?

Projecting Jordan Love’s next contract extension with the Packers

We live in a world where the New York Giants agreed to pay quarterback Daniel Jones, who has more career turnovers (64) than touchdown passes (62), $40 million annually over multiple seasons. So, we can imagine that is where the conversation begins for Love and his agent, David Mulugheta of Athletes First. We have also seen Justin Herbert (Los Angeles Chargers) and Joe Burrow (Cincinnati Bengals) boasting salaries north of $50 million thanks to the contract extensions they signed last offseason. While it feels unlikely he will match or exceed those players, he could come close.

Love displayed his elite arm talent this past season after being one of only four quarterbacks to record at least 4,000 passing yards (4,159) and 30 touchdown passes (32), adding 50 carries for 247 yards and four scores through the ground. Turning 26 in November, he is only beginning to hit the prime of his career -- only scratching the surface of his capabilities, which is why the Packers will likely give in to his demands rather than risk upsetting him to a point where he decides to play out the 2024 campaign under his current deal. 

Spotrac co-founder Michael Ginnitti projected Love and the Packers to come to terms on a four-year, $200 million extension, including $150 in guaranteed money back in February. Based on the recent contracts given to quarterbacks like Jones, Herbert, and Burrow, a $50 AAV (average annual salary) seems like a proper price tag. However, he likely will not see that amount of cash in assurances, especially considering what the Chargers and Bengals ensured their respective gunslingers in that department ($133 million and $146 million, respectively).

Jordan Love's next contract: four years, 200 million, including $110 million in guaranteed money.