Projecting Texas' remaining schedule results if Arch Manning was forced to play

This is Quinn Ewers' team, so long as he is healthy. Unfortunately, I can't trust the Texas starting quarterback to be healthy. He may have Justin Herbert or Matthew Stafford's talent, but he may be the next Sam Bradford. Now in his third year as the Texas quarterback, Ewers has missed games in each season due to injury since transferring back to his home state's flagship university in 2022.

The good news for Texas is Arch Manning looks to be a more than capable backup as the Longhorns' starter for now. He looked great vs. UTSA when he was thrust into action after Ewers' latest injury. While he was up-and-down to start in his first career start at Texas last week, the Longhorns wiped the floor with the ULM Warhawks. Manning is good, but what if he has to start the rest of the way?

Here is a look at what Texas' remaining regular-season schedule looks like. Are there any slip-ups?

Assuming Manning has to start the rest of the season in this extreme hypothetical, I see four potentially losable games on the horizon for the Longhorns. The Georgia home date after Red River feels pretty ominous. Besides that one, games vs. Oklahoma in Dallas and road dates at Arkansas and at Texas A&M could be very challenging. I think Manning drops one of those games as well.

At 10-2 with projected losses to Georgia, and I think Arkansas, will it be enough to make the playoff?

What Texas' season may look like if Arch Manning has to start each game

The reason I picked Arkansas as the other loss besides Georgia is that it is a road game vs. a bitter rival. The SEC may try to make Arkansas and Missouri hate each other. In time, that may work but Missouri hates Kansas and Arkansas hates Texas. The Hogs are playing quite well thus far under Sam Pittman. If not for a slip-up in overtime vs. Oklahoma State, the Razorbacks would still be undefeated.

If the 10-2 (6-2) projection I laid out with Manning as the starting quarterback plays out accordingly, the 'Horns are going to be pretty borderline getting into the playoff. Their three best wins would be over Michigan, Oklahoma and Texas A&M. Right now, they all have losses on the season. Maybe two of them will be serious playoff contenders at the end of the season, but there is a chance none are.

In my way-too-early estimations, I think the SEC gets five teams into the College Football Playoff. The Big Ten gets in at least three teams, possibly four. The ACC gets either one or two teams in. As for the Big 12 and the Group of Five, they will only get one team in apiece. So we need to ask ourselves this: Is a 10-2 (6-2) Texas team making the 12-team College Football Playoff as one of four at-large teams?

Right this instant, I would take Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss and Tennessee in over Texas, in no particular order, in the event that Texas starts Manning the rest of the way and they go 10-2 (6-2). I think Texas' biggest competition in the SEC for the last spot in would be Missouri. While they don't play head-to-head, they have the slightly tougher schedule and better resume if both went 10-2.

So in this extreme hypothetical, you would be looking at Texas being somewhere in the No. 9 to No. 11-seed range. They would have to play a first-round game on the road vs. presumably an SEC or Big Ten at-large team. To me, it all depends on matchups. The Longhorns would win in Eugene and State College, but may come up short in Athens, Knoxville, Oxford and Tuscaloosa in the first-round game.

With Manning under center, Texas can go 10-2, make the playoff and maybe get to the quarterfinals.