2 worthwhile pros, 2 jeopardizing cons to controversial Braves rotation decision

It's now or never for the 2024 Atlanta Braves. Their crucial last week of the regular season got off to a perfect start with a win over the New York Mets, a team that they're chasing in the NL Wild Card Race, and they had their two best pitchers, Chris Sale and Max Fried, lined up for the final two games.

Unfortunately, Mother Nature hates fun, and thanks to some poor planning, the final two games of their series against the Mets were postponed. They'll be made up in a doubleheader on Monday.

With that in mind, the Braves will enter their weekend series against the Kansas City Royals, sitting 1.0 game back of the third Wild Card spot with five games to go following the Arizona Diamondbacks win on Wednesday night.

The expectation was that the Braves were going to keep their rotation as-is, starting Sale and Fried for the first two games of the Royals series. That did not end up being the case. The Braves announced that Fried, not Sale, will begin the Royals series, and that the other two games do not have a probable starter yet.

This decision to start Fried and skip Sale is a controversial one, to say the least, and comes with pros and cons.

For more news and rumors, check out MLB Insider Robert Murray’s work on The Baseball Insiders podcast, subscribe to The Moonshot, our weekly MLB newsletter, and join the discord to get the inside scoop between now and the MLB offseason

Pro: The Braves will start Max Fried on his preferred day

According to Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Fried is a routine-oriented pitcher who does not like too much extra rest. Thanks to the postponements, he'll be pitching Friday on five days rest.

While bumping their best pitcher and arguably the best pitcher on the planet right now doesn't sound good, the numbers behind Fried starting on Friday in particular back this decision up.

On five days of rest this season, the southpaw has posted a 2.16 ERA in 15 starts and 96 innings of work. When he receives six or more days of rest this season, that ERA balloons to 9.30 in five starts and 20 innings of work. He goes from being an ace to an unusable pitcher just with one extra day of rest.

Sure, the sample is small, but Fried has always been better on exactly five days of rest. His career ERA on five days of rest is 2.77. That just to 3.24 on four days of rest, and 3.58 on six or more days of rest. For whatever reason, Fried is far better on exactly five days of rest, making Friday's game the optimal one for him.

The opposite can be said about Sale, who has a 2.80 ERA in 14 starts on five days of rest and a 2.27 ERA in eight starts on six or more days of rest. Sale is at an inning total he hasn't seen since the 2017 regular season, so getting him any sort of rest when they can is crucial, too.

Pro: Using Chris Sale when facing elimination gives the Braves the best chance to extend their season

As Toscano noted above, the Braves' plan is to go day by day and monitor not only their results, but how their competitors are doing. Every win of theirs is important, obviously, but losses from the Mets and Diamondbacks are almost just as important at this time of the season.

The Braves are making the decision to start Fried on Friday partially because of his routine, but also so that they can have the NL Cy Young frontrunner on standby for when they really need him. Obviously they'd benefit greatly by him taking the ball on Friday, but what if they could save him for when they're facing elimination? What if they need to win one or two of the games against the Mets to keep their season alive? Wouldn't they want their ace available and fully rested to dominate?

When Sale pitches, they win. The team has gone 22-7 when he has taken the mound this season, and has won each of his last eight starts. They've gone 12-2 the last 14 times he has started. Nothing is a sure thing, and the Braves did lose the only time Sale pitched against the Mets this season, but riding with their best at the most important time is a strategy that does make sense.

Con: The Braves risk not being able to use Chris Sale at all in the Wild Card Round

While the pros are very real, the con might outweigh the good from this decision. The Braves choosing to skip Sale's start on Friday could mean that he doesn't pitch at all.

If they chose to keep Sale on Friday, he'd be ready to start a potential Game 2 of the Wild Card Series. By choosing to start him on Saturday, which might still be the case, he'd be available for a potential Game 3 of the Wild Card Series. If he starts on Sunday or Monday with their regular season on the line, he might not be available at all in the Wild Card Series.

The Braves have as good of a starting rotation as any other team in the majors, but if Sale cannot start any of the Wild Card games with how their offense has looked all season, it's tough to predict that this team will advance to the NLDS. It's possible, but it'd be really hard to pick the Braves over another formidable team without their best player and pitcher.

By pushing Sale back, the Braves are running the risk of not being able to use him in the postseason if they can even get there. Getting there is more important than worrying about what the rotation will look like once you're there, but it's still an obvious con.

Con: The Braves are essentially asking to play on Monday when they might've been able to avoid it

The one thing that Mets and Braves fans can agree on is that neither fan base wants its team to play on Monday. Not only will both pitching staffs be exhausted thanks to a doubleheader with all hands on deck, but the travel situation is a nightmare. The Mets have to go from Milwaukee back to Atlanta for the doubleheader and then have to go from Atlanta to wherever their Wild Card Series is if they make it. The Braves will have a little less travel, but still have to go from Atlanta to another city nowhere near it right after a doubleheader to play a postseason game the next night.

This is a situation that both teams should want to avoid. The Mets are expected to use their ace, Sean Manaea, on Friday night against the Brewers, to try and clinch a spot as early as they can. They're making this decision when they're actually in the drivers seat with the best odds of the three teams competing for the final two spots.

The Braves are choosing to hold their best back for potential elimination, which has its pros, but they're giving themselves a lower chance of winning earlier, increasing the odds that Monday will be needed.

Had the Braves kept things as scheduled, they'd be giving themselves the best chance to win each of their next three games. You'd think, as the team on the outside looking in right now, that the Braves would want to start their ace on Friday to give themselves the best chance that they don't fall behind by 2.0 games with four to play.

Again, there are pros to consider, but there's every reason to believe that at a time when the Braves cannot afford to make a single mistake, that the cons outweigh them.