Rams vs. Bears: Odds, predictions, stats and betting trends for Week 4

Former Atlanta Falcons coach Jerry Glanville once said that the NFL stands for "Not For Long." Just because it's hilarious doesn't make it untrue, and the Chicago Bears are finding that out the hard way.

This entire offseason has felt like the Bears-themed birthday party I always wished my parents would give me. Oooh, we traded for Keenan Allen. Wow, we drafted Caleb Williams. Being on 'Hard Knocks' is amazing! I was even thrilled when we drafted Tory Taylor, and he's a punter!

Most of the goodwill that the Bears engendered in their fanbase this offseason has evaporated, as the team has scuffled its way through three unsightly games in three weeks. A really good team would be 3-0 right now, but the Bears sit at 1-2 and in the all-too-familiar confines of last place in the NFC North for a variety of reasons: poor offensive line play, indefensible coaching decisions and a suspect run defense among them.

Rams vs. Bears: What you need to know

Can the Bears put together a complete game on both sides of the ball to help fans restart the bandwagon? The Rams will have something to say about that, and they're riding high after pulling off a shocking comeback over the 49ers last week. Is Sean McVay's team primed for a letdown, or ready to go on a run?

These two teams have met 96 times before, but not since 2021. Few players remain from that game on either side. Aaron Donald is retired, though Matthew Stafford, whom the Bears used to face twice a year when he was a Lion, is still kicking and performing at a high level. Stafford made his Rams debut against the Bears in that 2021 Week 1 game, but the only Bears of note that still remain are Jaylon Johnson, Cole Kmet and Cairo Santos.

The NFC playoff race is bound to be a tight one, and both teams could sorely use a win here to move to 2-2 and stay in contention. One thing working in Chicago's favor is that the game is in, well, Chicago. The Bears are 1-0 at home, while the Rams are 0-2 on the road.

How to watch Rams vs. Bears live

• Date: Sunday, Sept. 29
• Time: 1:00 pm Eastern
• Site: Soldier Field
• City: Chicago, IL
• TV/Streaming: FOX, NFL Sunday Ticket on YouTube TV, NFL+

Latest game odds for Rams vs. Bears in Week 4

The latest odds as of Friday, Sept. 27 via FanDuel:

• Money line: Rams (+130), Bears (-154)
• Spread: Rams +3 (-115), Bears -3 (-105)
• Total: Over 40.5 (-118), Under 40.5 (-104)

Rams vs. Bears team stats and betting trends

• The Rams are 1-2 against the spread this season, while the Bears are 2-1.
• The Rams have hit the over in two out of three games, including last week against the 49ers. The Bears have gone under in all three games.
• Favorites are 30-19 straight up and 22-24-3 against the spread this season.
• The under has hit in 29 out of 49 games so far this season.
• The Rams had been 0-28 when facing a 14-point deficit under Sean McVay before their win last week.
• Since Sean McVay became the Rams head coach in 2017, the Rams are 3-1 against the Bears.
• The home team is 7-1 in the last eight matchups between these two teams.
• Matthew Stafford is 12-9 in his career against the Bears and 1-0 as a Ram.
• Both teams have double-digit comeback wins this season, with the Rams coming back from 14 down against the 49ers last week and the Bears erasing a 17-0 deficit against the Titans in Week 1.
• There are currently nine quarterbacks in the NFL that were drafted No. 1 overall. This is the first of five that Caleb Williams could face this season (Stafford, Bryce Young, Trevor Lawrence, Kyler Murray and Jared Goff twice). Four of those matchups will occur in the next five weeks.

Player news and injuries

Neither team enters this game anywhere close to full strength. The Rams are missing their top two receivers, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. Kupp missed last week with an ankle sprain he suffered in Week 2, while Nacua is on IR until at least Week 7 after spraining his PCL in Week 1. Otherwise, the team is healthy, with only two other players appearing at all on the injury report.

The Bears receiving corps is also less than 100 percent. Keenan Allen has missed the last two games with a heel injury, though his return to practice in a limited fashion this week means he's trending in the right direction. Meanwhile, Rome Odunze was downgraded from a full practice participant on Wednesday to a limited one on Thursday due to a hip injury. He seemed unbothered by his Week 1 MCL sprain last week, as he set career highs with six receptions for 110 yards and a touchdown.

Elsewhere on the Bears offense, Darnell Wright was upgraded from out on Wednesday to a limited participant on Thursday as he deals with a back injury. Braxton Jones was limited both days with a knee injury that forced him out against the Colts. Nate Davis went from limited on Wednesday to a full participant on Thursday, which is a good sign for his availability this weekend. Khari Blasingame hasn't played in two weeks, but the fact that he got in two limited sessions this week means he could be back to help the Bears' underwhelming running game.

The Bears have health issues on the defensive side of the ball as well. Zacch Pickens, Terell Smith and Darrell Taylor haven't practiced this week, and will probably need to get on the field by the end of the week if they hope to play on Sunday. Pickens has only logged seven snaps all season, while Smith sustained a hip injury against the Colts and didn't return.

Montez Sweat was limited Wednesday with an elbow injury but should be good to go after returning as a full participant on Thursday. Concerningly though, starting safety Kevin Byard missed Thursday's practice after sustaining a back injury, while Andrew Billings, who has been one of the best unsung defensive tackles in football, was downgraded from limited on Wednesday to out on Thursday.

Game prediction

Other than a 41-10 bushwhacking by the Cardinals in Week 2, every game these teams have played in this young season has been close. The Rams lost to the Lions in overtime in Week 1 and beat the Niners by three last week, while the Bears have played a one-possession game all three weeks.

In the absence of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, the Rams will lean heavily on Kyren Williams to carry the load. Jonathan Taylor showed last week that the Bears are vulnerable on the ground, racking up 110 yards on 23 carries. If Andrew Billings is out, that could spell disaster for the Matt Eberflus' run defense.

There's rain and wind in the forecast for this game. Traditionally, that would favor the Bears, but this Bears team has shown no ability to run the ball. D'Andre Swift has been the most ineffective running back in the league, and though Roschon Johnson showed some promising things last week, the coaching staff hasn't committed to making him the featured back as of yet.

Compounding that is the offensive line issues. The Bears have had trouble clearing lanes up front, and the injuries to Braxton Jones, Darnell Wright, and Nate Davis won't help. Even if all three play, they won't all be at full strength. We saw last week that the Bears couldn't take advantage of an abysmal Colts run defense. The Rams are the second-worst team against the run, giving up 177 yards per game. Aaron Donald is no longer around to wreak havoc, but this is a matchup that the Bears just don't have the manpower to exploit.

I expect Caleb Williams to make some plays after taking a big step forward last week, but the conditions just aren't right for him to single-handedly destroy a soft Rams defense. The Rams can key on the passing game since they know the Bears can't run on anybody, and though L.A. will struggle to move the ball themselves, I expect the coaching edge they enjoy with Sean McVay over Matt Eberflus to make the difference. Rams in an ugly one, 18-16.