Ranking 5 dark horse candidates for American League MVP

When we think of the race for American League MVP, our minds immediately think: Aaron Judge, case closed… Next! Judge is without a doubt, the best hitter in baseball. When he is, well, fans are treated to a spectacle of baseballs flying places they rarely see at astronomical rates as well as leaping grabs robbing others of home runs. Judge does all this with a high batting average.

Currently slashing .318/.449/.698 with 40 HR, Judge leads the majors in home runs, RBI, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, and wRC+. With numbers indicative of a baseball juggernaut, the crown may land on the head of the 2022 MVP once more. While he is certainly the favorite, he might want to look over his shoulder. As sideview mirrors suggest, “objects in mirror are closer than they appear.”

Let’s take a look at some non-Judge candidates that are on a trajectory worthy of the 2024 AL MVP award.

5. Vladimir Guerrero Jr

It might be a head-scratcher, however, don’t underestimate this surging slugger. Toronto Blue Jays’ first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr got off to a bit of a slow start, but has since kicked it into high gear. Currently slashing .314/.386/.529 with 21 HR, Guerrero now has the eighth-highest OPS in the AL.

But it’s not this season’s numbers that make his case. Prior to the game on August 2, Vladdy was slashing .464/.523/1.018 with eight home runs in the prior 15 games. If you zoom in closer, he hit .538 in the past seven games. If Guerrero continues on this torrid stretch, his MVP candidacy might leap from hard pass to rivaling Judge. But can he keep this up?

To start, no one can keep a .538 batting average for half a year. Nevertheless, this takes us back to 2021 when Guerrero hit for a .311 average with 48 home runs. When we get to the point, we’ve seen Guerrero do great things and yes, he is proving he can still post astronomical numbers. But can he beat Judge?

Let’s say he posts similar numbers to Judge. Guerrero maintains a -14.2 defensive WAR compared to Judge’s -7.7. According to FanGraphs’ defensive WAR metric, neither of them are great defenders this season. Still, Judge is much better in the field. If he is going to compete against Judge for the MVP title, Guerrero has a lot of work to do both offensively and defensively.

4. Emmanuel Clase

Only four times in baseball history has a relief pitcher been named MVP, the last being Dennis Eckersley in 1992. The fact that they pitch few innings over the course of the season has been off-putting in the minds of the voters. But those select few have been recognized for their repetitive excellence that has helped their teams nail down victories.

Cleveland Guardians’ closer Emmanuel Clase leads all relievers (all pitchers for that fact) with an 0.72 ERA and 33 saves (T-1st) in 50.1 innings pitched while holding opponents to a .150 AVG and just six walks. His 43Ks aren’t his greatest feat, but no one can argue with his results. Still, we need to ask: is this MVP worthy? Let’s compare Clase’s stats to Dennis Eckersley’s MVP/Cy Young stats.

In 1992, Eckersley threw 80 innings to the tune of a 1.91 ERA, not nearly as good as Clase’s. In that time, Eckersley accrued 51 saves, 93 strikeouts, 11 walks, and held opponents to a .211 average. Right now, Clase’s case is looking even better. But Eckersley finished 1990 with better numbers than Clase posting a 0.61 with 48 saves through 73.1 innings and didn’t win an MVP or Cy Young. So, Clase’s case is by no margin bulletproof.

3. Corbin Burnes

Corbin Burnes has spent the season cementing himself as the Baltimore Orioles ace and vying for the top arm in the AL since landing in Baltimore over the offseason. His 2.47 ERA is the lowest in the majors. In 138.2 innings, Burnes has accumulated 128 Ks and held opponents to a .215 average. But is it enough to win an MVP?

The last pitcher to win an MVP was Clayton Kershaw in 2014. That year, Kershaw pitched 198.1 innings with an ERA of 1.77, topping Giancarlo Stanton for the MVP also winning the CY Young while at it. Can Burnes do the same?

Kershaw’s performance that year was phenomenal, but aiding his chances was the fact that no NL hitter had overwhelming numbers that season. If Burnes is going to win the MVP, he will need to do a lot better than he already is.

2. Juan Soto

Juan Soto is having a career year in pinstripes. Slashing .310/.436/.595 with 27 home runs through 393 at-bats, Soto lags only his teammate Aaron Judge in OBP. While anyone can admire his batting average and power, his key to MVP-type success is his ability to draw walks. Soto has drawn 89 BBs compared to 75 Ks. This gives him a 1.187 walk-to-strikeout ratio (BB/K), the best in the majors. Thus far, Soto is the only player in the MLB with more walks than strikeouts.

Still, seemingly at his best, he does not top Judge. But one thing in favor of Soto has, strangely, been his defense. Soto has a positive defensive WAR of 0.2. It’s hard to imagine Soto being a better defender than Judge, but this might be because WAR isn’t the best metric (we’ve only used defensive WAR so far). Anthony Volpe, who has 11 errors on the season, has a spectacular 13.5 defensive WAR (2nd best in the majors). But defense aside, if he is going to win the MVP, Soto has a lot of work ahead of him.

1. Bobby Witt Jr

Now to Judge’s top competitor. Kansas City Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr has been on a tear recently, bringing his slash line up to a formidable .348/.396/.600 with 20 home runs. But it doesn’t stop there. Witt is also a threat on the bases swiping 25 in 35 attempts. And when it comes to defense, Witt’s 15.7 defensive WAR is the best in the MLB. This defensive mark pushes Witt ahead of Judge in overall WAR to take the top spot in the MLB (Witt: 7.8 WAR, Judge: 7.3 WAR). Witt is a five-tool player that can do it all. But can he pry the 2024 MVP award away from Judge?

Let’s make a comparison to the 2017 AL MVP race:

In 2017, Jose Altuve’s higher average and speed was enough to sway the voters by a 27-2 margin (one first place vote went to Jose Ramirez). But this time, Judge is hitting for an average higher than .300.

If Witt is going to win, he will need to do better than Altuve.