Ranking 5 dark horse candidates for NL MVP

Two-way phenom Shohei Ohtani already has two MVP awards in his collection. This year, he is halfway to a third.

But there is one important caveat. Ohtani’s MVP awards came when he was pitching and hitting at an elite level. This season, due to injury, Ohtani is only a DH, and there are some that hold reservations about DHs winning MVP awards.

Nonetheless, he is dominating the hitters in the NL. This season, Ohtani is slashing .308/.398/.630 with 33 HR. In addition, Ohtani stole 28 bases in 32 attempts. He leads the league in HR, AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS, wRC+ and WAR despite not playing a field position. With his stolen bases and stellar numbers, Ohtani has a leg up over everyone else, but he has been slowing down since June ended. Could we see a new favorite arise? Not likely, but let’s give a few others a look just in case.

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5. Marcell Ozuna

Marcell Ozuna has been the bright spot in an otherwise dismal Atlanta Braves offense this season. Slashing .300/.375/.578 with 31 HR, The Big Bear is the only hitter that rivals Ohtani. His HR total, wRC+, and SLG percentage are second to Ohtani’s and his RBI total is higher (Ozuna’s 85 RBIs lead the NL, but Ohtani comes in at a close second with 79). However, Ozuna doesn’t steal bases. Advantage: Ohtani.

But don’t count Ozuna out. In the month of April, Ozuna hit for a .355 AVG with 8 HR. If he goes on another one of his hot streaks like he did in April, he can pass Ohtani in several major metrics. However, like Ohtani, Ozuna is a DH as well. If defense comes into play, those that have soured on Ohtani will sour on Ozuna as well. On the other hand, the odds for a DH MVP have never been higher.

4. Jurickson Profar

Jurickson Profar has truly broken out and is having the best season of his long career. The San Diego Padres’ first-time all-star outfielder has blown expectations away slashing .301/.394/.486 with 18 HR. While this might be overshadowed by the stats posted by Ohtani and Ozuna, Profar is third in the NL in wRC+ (again overshadowed by Ohtani and Ozuna, but Profar fields a position).

The traditionalist MVP voters that are put off by voting for a DH may find Profar to be a worthy candidate. With both Mookie Betts and Christian Yelich injured, the odds that players like Jurickson Profar could seize the MVP award have increased. But, as it seems the tides have been shifting away from disregarding designated hitters, Profar’s odds are still remote.

3. Chris Sale

One of the biggest surprises of the season has been the resurgence of Chris Sale. The leading NL Cy Young candidate has been hampered by injuries for the past several years and pitched to a 4.30 ERA last season through 102.2 innings. But this season is a vastly different story.

So far, Sale has pitched 123 innings posting a 2.71 ERA, the lowest ERA in the NL. His 155 K’s tie him for second in the NL behind Dylan Cease who has thrown more games. In addition, he has only allowed 8 HR and 28 walks while holding batters to a .200 AVG. He may be the favorite for the Cy Young, but can he win the MVP honors?

In 2011, Justin Verlander nabbed the AL MVP and Cy Young awards with a 2.40 ERA, not a far cry from where Sale is currently. However, Verlander threw a whopping 251 innings with four complete games, two being full-game shutouts, one being a no-hitter. Sale, on the other hand, hasn’t thrown a complete game this season and, with his injury history, probably shouldn’t.

Kershaw was the last pitcher to win the MVP having done it in 2014 with a 1.77 ERA through 198.1 innings. While there is a possibility Sale could win the NL MVP, unless he lowers his ERA dramatically, the chances aren’t in his favor.

2. Bryce Harper

This year, Harper has been bit by the injury bug, hampering his MVP candidacy. In a post All-Star break poll, Harper garnered five first place votes putting him in second behind Ohtani (35 first place votes) and ahead of Elly De La Cruz (one first place vote). However, Harper, who hit .374 with 7 HR in June before falling on the IL, has only hit .149 with 4 HR through the month of July since returning for the Philadelphia Phillies.

While an injury may be the cause of his prolonged slump, his once decent MVP chances have been hurt, but not fatally. Harper is now slashing .271/.366/.534 with 24 HR. His season numbers are still very good, but his chances at winning the MVP honors this year will depend on when he breaks from his slump and how well he performs afterwards.

1. Ketel Marte

Ketel Marte is having another great season in Arizona. The Diamondbacks’ second baseman is slashing .303/.369/.554 with 26 HR. Marte slumped in the month of May posting a .216 AVG but has since caught fire and posted great numbers for the past two months. Marte’s 5.1 WAR figure is now second in the NL behind Ohtani’s 5.7 (all advanced stats using FanGraphs).

Should he pass Shohei Ohtani in a few key metrics, Marte’s plus defense at second base might give him the edge in the MVP race. But the problem is catching Shohei Ohtani. A slight advantage in batting average won’t make a big difference if Ohtani keeps slugging homeruns. But to get an idea of their trajectories, let’s give their stats from the past few months a look.

If Ketel keeps his scorching pace, he just might challenge Ohtani for the NL crown, but his chances are still unfavorable.