Ranking the NL Playoff field based on their record against confident Phillies
The Philadelphia Phillies clinched the AL East crown on Monday night with a 6-2 victory over the Chicago Cubs in Citizens Bank Park. It was a real moment of reflection and celebration for the team, including one heck of a postgame party in the clubhouse.
There isn't a better vibes team in MLB, which can be scary for those destined to face Philadelphia this upcoming October. Philadelphia is currently the No. 2 seed in the NL, a half-game behind the Shohei Ohtani-led Dodgers. That race could go either way, but if it's any solace to those unhappy with Philadelphia's success, a high seed does not always guarantee success in October. Some folks, perhaps from the southeast, might even say it harms one's chances of going the distance.
It is documented fact that the No. 1 seed comes with a first-round bye, which has ironically been a challenge for the home team to overcome in recent years. Philadelphia has been on the other side of that series, knocking off top-ranked Atlanta a couple times, but the Phillies have never been the team shaking off rust with home-field advantage.
The Phils will gun for that No. 1 seed, though, and the competition will be stiff. Either way it shakes out, Philadelphia should probably be the prohibitive 'favorites' to come out of the NL Playoffs, if only because of their recent success in the postseason. We shan't underestimate Shohei and the historic heater he is on, but Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and that Dodgers team just does not tend to show up when it counts.
All that said, let's see how the rest of the NL postseason field has fared against Philadelphia this season.
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National League Postseason contenders ranked by record against Phillies
RANK | TEAM | RECORD VS. PHILLIES |
---|---|---|
1 | 4-3 | |
2 | 6-7 | |
3 | 2-4 | |
4 | 1-5 | |
5 | 1-5 |
Simultaneously the most and least surprising order possible.
Of course the Dodgers are dead last. It just feels right. Los Angeles and Philadelphia is practically written in the stars as the NLCS matchup, which means we probably won't get it. If it does reach that point, however, Philadelphia has had the Dodgers' number all season.
Six games is hardly enough evidence by scientific standards, but LA's pitching staff is dangerously flimsy these days. Betts and Freeman are both World Series champs, so the 'they don't perform in the playoffs' bit probably doesn't hold up, but... last October was a rather putrid display from the Dodgers. Over $1 billion worth of new talent changes the equation, but it's fair to wonder if Los Angeles can string together the consistent excellence needed to go the distance.
it's telling (and perhaps concerning for the broader National League apparatus) that Philadelphia has a winning record against all but one projected postseason team. By that same token, the Phils can't feel great about the whole Diamondbacks thing. Arizona knocked Philly out of the NLCS a year ago and still put the Phillies in the hurt locker multiple times this season. If, by chance, we are treated to Phillies-Diamondbacks early in October, which is a distinct possibility, we can't feel great about Philadelphia's chances.
The Phillies have earned favorite status is just about any series that comes their way, but the MLB Playoffs tend to achieve maximize shock value and excitement precisely because nothing that happened in the regular season really matters. A well-timed hot streak is all is takes to become immortalized in baseball history.
For as dominant as Philadelphia has been this season, it will take borderline flawless execution and a true collective effort to get through the National League gauntlet and, eventually, the AL opponent waiting on the other side.