Ranking the top 7 AL Rookie of the Year candidates

With Paul Skenes getting a ton of attention, many other quality rookies are seemingly overlooked. While it appears Skenes is a lock for the NL ROY, the AL is wide open. There are even a few relievers we should pay attention to. But, can a reliever be good enough to win this year’s AL ROY? Let’s explore the top seven candidates and their qualifications thus far.

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7. Ceddanne Rafaela, Boston Red Sox  

Ceddanne Rafaela made his highly anticipated debut last year. The Red Sox super-utility man (mainly CF and SS) was touted for his great speed. In 2023, he finished the year going 20-83 with two home runs.

This year, Rafaela is slashing .257/.286/.419 with 13 HR. He leads all rookies in RBI with 57. While the batting average and home run total seem good, his low on-base number can be attributed to his 105 Ks (Rafaela has 100 hits) and only 12 BBs (not including 1 IBB). As far as his speed, Rafaela has a 16-6 stolen base record. But if he’s going to get the opportunity to be a renowned threat on the bases, he’s going to need to get on base at a higher rate.

However, for the Red Sox, he was certainly a keeper. At the beginning of the season, they inked him to an eight-year, $50 million deal with a club option for 2032.

6. Nolan Schanuel, Los Angeles Angels

At the beginning of the year, Nolan Schanuel was the Angels’ top prospect and their only prospect on the MLB’s Top 100 Prospects list. He made his debut last year going 30 for 109 with one home run. He is currently slashing .251/.344/.374 with 11 HR. His slugging percentage may be low, but his on-base percentage is very good. The 47 walks he has drawn this season lead all qualified rookies this year.

He got off to a slow start like many young players do but started catching fire just last month. In the month of July, Schanuel hit for a .316 AVG. At a time when everything is going wrong for the Angels, he is proving to be an important piece that may help pull them from their misery in the coming years.

5. Mason Miller, Oakland Athletics

This list wouldn’t be complete without Mason Miller. Miller came up last year as a starter before falling injured, something that has hindered his career in the past. With his injury history a clear obstacle, the A’s decided to move him to the bullpen.

Miller’s 2.21 ERA isn’t the lowest among rookie relievers this season, but they have not achieved the elite status that Miller earned in several ways — 70 Ks, .146 opponent average, consistently throwing over 100 MPH.

Unfortunately, Miller hit the IL after breaking his pinky punching a padded training table. It was his non-pitching hand, so there is hope he will be back soon, but this still hurts his ROY chances. Miller has thrown 40.2 innings on the year.

4. Hunter Gaddis, Cleveland Guardians

One name that gets overlooked is Hunter Gaddis, a relief pitcher for the Cleveland Guardians. He doesn’t throw a 103 MPH four-seamer like Mason Miller, but his 1.38 ERA tops Miller’s 2.21.

Gaddis made his debut in 2022 but is still classified as a rookie this season. He is a part of the formidable Guardians bullpen (himself, Cade Smith 1.82 ERA *also a rookie*, Tim Herrin 1.83 ERA, Emmanuel Clase 0.70 ERA, etc). Gaddis’ excellent ERA comes over the course of 52 IP. He has logged 48 Ks and allowed 11 BBs which may not strike anyone as stellar, but his .156 opponent AVG is very impressive.

As a lesser-known reliever, he may not get the attention he deserves when the voting begins, but he shouldn’t be disregarded.

3. Colton Cowser, Baltimore Orioles

Outfielder Colton Cowser made his Orioles debut last season going 7-of-61, not his best showing. But this season, he has impressed with a .253/.335/.459 slash line and 16 HR. He leads all rookies in HR this year. So far, his season has been very mixed. In his good months, he has hit .297+. In his bad months, he hit below .200, much more eventful than his .253 average looks on the surface.

Cowser has played all three outfield positions this year and is one of the top defenders in the AL. With his great numbers and defense, he has a genuine shot at the 2024 AL ROY.

2. Wilyer Abreu, Boston Red Sox  

Wilyer Abreu came up last year and made a great impression with the Red Sox going 24-of-75 with two home runs. This season, the Boston outfielder is slashing .278/.339/.521 with 12 HR. What makes his home run total better is that he’s only seen 263 ABs. The other position players on this list have over 300 each.

Abreu leads all qualified rookies in doubles, SLG, and OPS. He leads all qualified AL rookies in AVG. If he continues strong, he may be the next AL ROY.

1. Luis Gil, New York Yankees

Luis Gil was once the best pitcher in baseball for a brief time. That’s when he and the whole Yankee pitching staff started to crumble. But it seems that Gil is now finding his groove again, at least to an extent.

Gil made his Yankee debut in 2021 and had one start in 2022. He missed most of the 2023 minor league season. On June 4, Gil had a 1.82 ERA. Shortly after he reached the pinnacle of a great run, he imploded. Now, he has an ERA of 3.20 through 112.2 IP. While still great, he hasn’t been what he was. In that time, Gil has notched 132 Ks and held opponents to a .177 average. If Gil can fully regain his form, he will be a lock for AL Rookie of the Year. But for now, it’s a close race.