Red Flags: 5 college football teams to put on upset alert in Week 5

You're on upset alert, and you're on upset alert! Fact: Only one team could conceivably go undefeated this college football season. This because an undefeated conference champion is going to make the expanded College Football Playoff, one way or another.

Once we get that 12-team tournament sorted out, there will only be one true champion. Whether it be 15 or probably 16 games, this will be a doozy.

So as we enter the final week of September, more and more teams are going to be suffering their first losses of the season. In two of the biggest games of the weekend between Alabama and Georgia in the SEC and Illinois and Penn State in the Big Ten, two of them will remain unblemished, while the other two will be tasting defeat for the first time this season. This is just what happens in football...

As I fill in for my boss, my FanSided.com colleague and my False Start co-host Cody Williams, I am going to do my best to be the greatest gambler in the world. Admittedly, I don't really dip into this sphere quite like he does. However, I am going to put five favored teams on upset notice this week. I don't know if any of them are going down, but these five Power Four teams have been warned by me!

I am not a gambler by any means, as I am merely having fun looking at a few points spreads of note.

Note: All lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. All bets are 1 unit unless otherwise noted. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

2024 Upset Picks Record: 0-0

5. No. 9 Penn State Nittany Lions (3-0)

Opponent: vs. No. 19 Illinois Fighting Illini (4-0)
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET (NBC)
Spread: Penn State -19

This seems like too big of a spread for me. Penn State is probably going to win and get to 4-0, while Illinois likely suffers its first defeat of the season on Saturday night. However, I don't think Bret Bielema's team fears the pomp and circumstance of a whiteout game in Happy Valley. Bielema had no idea this was a thing until this week. That man has Big Ten West Energy coursing through his veins.

For as much as I like the high-end talent of Penn State, this is a new coaching staff backing up James Franklin. Drew Allar may be a better version of J.J. McCarthy, but we know Penn State's proclivity for being a driving school under Franklin. The Nittany Lions will keep their hands at 10 and 2, so they can go 10-2. Could this be a loss on the horizon for Penn State? I am not counting on it, but it may occur.

Besides Bielema being in his bag already with notable wins over Kansas and Nebraska thus far, I have really liked seen Luke Altmyer grow as a quarterback in this offensive system. His elevated play suggests to me that Illinois is capable of winning in multiple ways. The Illini can win ugly, but I think they can win in a shootout, too. All the pressure is on Penn State in this one. Will they be ready for it?

While I am not taking the Illini to win this game, I think they will lose by closer to 10 than by 20 points.

4. No. 23 Kansas State Wildcats (3-1)

Opponent: vs. No. 20 Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-1)
Time: 12:00 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Spread: Kansas State -4.5

When it comes to the AP Top 25 Poll, this is not an upset. However, the oddsmakers don't really care about what the Associated Press thinks about the best teams in college football, only about getting equal money on both sides of a gambling line. After looking lackluster offensively vs. the BYU Cougars last week, I would not be shocked if the Kansas State Wildcats lost to Oklahoma State.

The Pokes may have gotten lucky vs. a halfway decent Arkansas team a few weeks back, but they came up short vs. a Utah team that simply isn't the same offensively without Cam Rising at quarterback. Isaac Wilson is getting better with each passing game, but the Big 12 might only get its conference champion into the College Football Playoff this year. This feels like an elimination game.

At some point, Ollie Gordon II will start to play like Ollie Gordon II for Oklahoma State. At times, Alan Bowman has looked like a seasoned college quarterback, mostly because he is as a seventh-year senior. Avery Johnson may be infinitely more talented than him, but experience matters. That is why I am taking the Pokes to pull off the road upset over K-State to improve to 4-1 on the college season.

I have seen enough out of Kansas State so far that I am fading them on making the playoff so hard.

3. No. 24 Texas A&M Aggies (3-1)

Opponent: vs. Arkansas Razorbacks (3-1) (Arlington, TX)
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Spread: Texas A&M -3.5

It don't know what we will learn from this year's rendition of the Southwest Classic, but we will learn something, alright. Entering this SEC rivalry game, the Arkansas Razorbacks and the Texas A&M Aggies are both 3-1 with a loss to a ranked team. Arkansas fell a few weeks ago to the Oklahoma State Cowboys in overtime. Texas A&M has rattled off three straight wins since falling to Notre Dame.

For as much as I live Marcel Reed at quarterback, the Conner Weigman of it all makes it incredibly had to trust the Aggies each and every week. While Mike Elko seems to be the necessary stabilizing forced this team needs, I wonder if Collin Klein's offense can go toe-for-toe with what Bobby Petrino is cooking up on his hog with Sam Pittman's Hogs. Yessir! This one is about to be a barn burner, bruh!

Texas A&M enters play as a slight favorite on a neutral site, probably as the Aggies should be. Truth be told, I think these teams a high-quality, middle-of-the-pack SEC teams. One, maybe even both of them, could finish the season ranked. For now, I like the Hogs' offense just enough to pull off the slight upset and hand the Aggies their second loss of the season. Maybe Arkansas goes 8-4 on the year?

Neither of these teams are making the College Football Playoff, but they are fun teams to watch play.

2. No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs (3-0)

Opponent: at No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide (3-0)
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN+)
Spread: Georgia -2

I don't know how to feel about this one... Georgia has lost two games over the last three-plus seasons, and both times it came to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. While the Dawgs get the win past the Crimson Tide in Indianapolis during the 2021-22 College Football Playoff, I am never confident going into Alabama week. It is No. 2 at No. 4, but I don't like the Dawgs laying two points on the road.

Of course, I am still going to pick Georgia because, one, I have to and two, the Dawgs are my pick to win the national championship. While I don't know if I would take the Crimson Tide getting points at home either, as this is very much a stay-away game for me, I do think Alabama could upset Georgia. To be fair, it is not really all that much of an upset, but the point spread says that it would be one.

Although Georgia has struggled on third down on both sides of the ball, the Dawgs have yet to give up a touchdown defensively. While they mushed Clemson in Atlanta, they got then they could handle vs. Kentucky. Conversely, Alabama was tested back in Week 2 vs. South Florida. Keep in mind that Wisconsin was dead in the water the second that Tyler Van Dyke tore his ACL on their first drive.

Just because Nick Saban is no longer coaching the Tide does not mean I am crossing Alabama off.

1. No. 16 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (3-1)

Opponent: vs. No. 15 Louisville Cardinals (3-0)
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET (Peacock)
Spread: Notre Dame -6.5

I woke up feeling dangerous, apparently. I am all about the upsets this week. My favorite pick would have to be undefeated Louisville going into one-loss Notre Dame. These appear to be two evenly-matched teams heading into Week 5, but Notre Dame laying almost a touchdown seems a tad disrespectful to those delightful Birds With Teeth. This is all about coaching, and Louisville will win.

My biggest takeaway from the first third of the regular season is coaching matters! Those with great coaches win more games. Those that have talent deficiencies keep it close. Teams that have poor coaches let lesser teams into games. Even worse, they end up losing dumb ones. Marcus Freeman has already lost a dumb one because Riley Leonard and Mike Denbrock are mixing like oil and water.

As for Louisville, have you seen what has happened to Purdue since Jeff Brohm left West Lafayette? The Boilermakers are among the worst teams in the Power Four. As for the Cardinals, they played in the ACC Championship Game a year ago in a season where nobody expected them to. Louisville just might be good. With this potential win, we might have to look at them as Miami's biggest challenger.

Look for Tyler Shough to be the better transfer quarterback in this one when compared to Leonard.