Regrading Shohei Ohtani's Dodgers contract if he never pitches again

Shohei Ohtani's free agency sweepstakes this past offseason was one of the most anticipated decisions (and contracts) in recent sports memory. It brought back flashbacks of Lebron James and Kevin Durant's free agency decisions that shocked the sports world.

And Ohtani's decision didn't disappoint. He signed a groundbreaking $700 million deal with the powerhouse Los Angeles Dodgers. $680 million of that contract would be in deferred money, meaning he would only make $2 million per season for the length of his 10 years with the Dodgers.

But for the level of player that Ohtani is, this isn't the craziest idea. With a healthy Ohtani, you get two players in one. Ohtani finished 2023 with a WAR of 10.1. That level of WAR is equal to the offensive production of Matt Olson (6.6 WAR) and the pitching production of Justin Verlander (3.5 WAR) wrapped up into one roster spot.

But Ohtani underwent elbow surgery, leaving him unable to pitch this season. Plus, a recent report indicated that Ohtani is open to the Dodgers' plan of putting aside pitching and becoming an everyday outfielder. How does this contract look if he doesn't have the special trait of being baseball's only two-way superstar?

Regrading Shohei Ohtani's $700 million contract if he never pitches again

Let's begin by making it clear that this is all hypothetical. This is IF Ohtani never pitches again. It does not mean there are any confirmations or decisions made that he won't pitch again. In all likelihood, he probably will. But the contract looks a lot different if he doesn't pitch again.

The first thing to note is that Ohtani is a better hitter than he is a pitcher. His offensive WAR was over two wins higher than his pitching WAR last season.

But there is no hitter in the history of baseball, besides maybe 2004 Barry Bonds, that is worth $700 million spread across ten years of production. No offensive production is worth that level of investment, especially considering Ohtani hasn't consistently played defense in his MLB career.

To put it into perspective, Aaron Judge makes $40 million a year, almost half of what Ohtani brings home. Ohtani's teammate Mookie Betts makes less than half of what Ohtani makes, and Betts has an even higher WAR in 2024 than Ohtani does.

Shohei Ohtani contract regrade: C+. This $700 million contract isn't the worst thing to ever happen to baseball if Ohtani continues to pitch. Getting two All-Stars in one is worth that price tag. But if Ohtani moves to an everyday outfielder, this contract probably grades out at a C+, due to the damage it's going to do to the Dodgers long after Ohtani has retired.