Rocket Mortgage Classic picks 2024: Expert picks, best bets for Detroit Golf Club

After a grueling three weeks of Signature Event-US Open-Signature Event, we are now back to regularly scheduled PGA Tour programming, namely making the annual stop at Detroit Golf Club for the 2024 Rocket Mortgage Classic. Of course, on the heels of that elevated stretch of tournaments, that also means many of the world's top players are simply taking the week off.

Case in point, Tom Kim, who was 50/1 at Travelers last week, is now the favorite to win the Rocket Mortgage Classic this week at 12/1. Yes, that's influenced by him just getting nipped for a win by Scottie Scheffler in a playoff (much to my chagrin after having Kim as my outright pick), but it speaks to the fact that there are no Top 20 players in this field.

But that opens up some opportunities, especially at a place like Detroit Golf Club that has pretty clearly defined what it rewards -- namely driving distance, great wedge play and the hope for a hot putter. We saw Rickie Fowler complete a comeback with a win here last year but which player will make a name for themselves next at the Rocket Mortgage Classic?

Let's figure that out as we dive fully into our 2024 Rocket Mortgage Classic picks and best bets for this week on the PGA Tour.

Note: All odds are courtesy of BetMGM unless otherwise noted. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. For more betting picks and advice, check out BetSided.

Golf betting record in 2024 through Travelers: 21-142-0, -38.53 Units (1-62 on outrights and longshots | +0.1 units at US Open) | One and Done Total for 2024: $13,726,527 (Tom Kim at Travelers, $2.2 million)

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Rocket Mortgage Classic picks for Winner, Top 10, One and Done

Top 10 pick for the Rocket Mortgage Classic: Michael Thorbjornsen (+500)

Just graduating immediately to the PGA Tour from the PGA Tour U program, Michael Thorbjornsen is kind of a great unknown right now, at least to some degree. We saw him at the Travelers last week and he finished T39 with a pretty up-and-down performance from round to round. Here's the thing, though. When you think of Detroit Golf Club, it's a place that should suit him ideally. Thorbjornsen is elite off the tee with his length and should be in highly advantageous position at this place because of that. Moreover, this is the type of field when it's anyone's game. This is a guy who popped as an amateur with a T17 at John Deere last year and T11 at the Dubai Desert Classic earlier this year. He has the game and this could well be a coming out party.

Winner pick for the Rocket Mortgage Classic (0.5 Units): Davis Thompson (+3300)

It just seems like young Davis Thompson is on the verge of his breakout win on the PGA Tour. Just over the past few months, the 25-year-old has finished T9 at the US Open, T2 at the Myrtle Beach Classic and has been in the Top 30 in six of his last eight tournaments. Thompson's ball-striking has been stellar, ranking fifth in this field over the last 20 rounds in SG: Tee-to-Green. He's long off the tee but relatively accurate too and his approach play has been 15th-best in this field over the last 20 rounds. After gaining with the short game at the US Open too, it's hard not to be high on what he's capable of.

One and Done pick for the Rocket Mortgage Classic: Davis Thompson

Again, I'm looking at the trends and the game of Davis Thompson and seeing a player who is heading toward something big. Even if that's not a win, though I'm obviously hoping that's the case based on the outright wager, there's still a firm belief that Thompson will put forth a high-quality finish this week.

Rocket Mortgage Classic picks: More best bets for Detroit Golf Club

Kevin Yu to finish Top 20 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic (+300)

This is quite literally just a bet on if Kevin Yu can find anything on the greens this week or not. The 25-year-old's ball-striking remains phenomenal, gaining at least 3.1 strokes ball striking in his last five measured events, including more than 7.0 the last time we saw him at the RBC Canadian Open. But he also lost 6.8 strokes putting that week and lost more than 4.0 strokes putting at the Charles Schwab in his previous start. That's why this is a flier but I can absolutely sleep at night betting on the player who is fourth in this field in SG: Tee-to-Green over the last 20 rounds to find even an average putter for the week, which would surely vault him into the Top 20, especially in this field.

Jake Knapp to finish Top 10 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic (+700)

Make no mistake, it's not been petty for Jake Knapp over the past few months. He comes into the Rocket Mortgage off of three missed cuts and then a T48 at Travelers. He's gained strokes in any of the four major categories just once in his last three starts. And he's losing strokes across the board over the last 20 rounds in every category but SG: Putting, where he's gaining a marginal 0.011 strokes per round. And yet, I'm going big with him this week. His length off the tee is a weapon and Rocket Mortgage could very well set up like Mexico, where he won. If he can find a hot putter, which we've seen already this year, I'm willing to take these long odds for him to come up big this week.

Ryan Fox to finish Top 20 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic (+200)

Ryan Fox is a bit erratic at times but he has two weapons working tremendously for him right now: The driver and the putter. Over the last 20 rounds, the New Zealander is 12th in this field in SG: Off-the-Tee and 11th in SG: Putting. What stands out quite a bit though is that his approach numbers, while overall not good, have peaked in the 75-150 yard ranges, which is what we'll see a lot of from him in Detroit. He ranks Top 21 in strokes gained from 75-100, 100-125, and 125-150 yards on approach. Oh, and he's also third in the field over the last 20 rounds in Par 5 scoring. It's an ideal fit for his game and, with the hot putter, a Top 20 feels almost like a floor in this field.

Longshot pick to win the Rocket Mortgage Classic (0.1 Units): Chandler Phillips (+10000)

Chandler Phillips doesn't necessarily fit the bomber mold I've looked at for most of my other picks this week but he's not a short-short hitter off the tee and his approach play has been stellar. He is in the Top 11 for each of the approach yardage metrics I mentioned with Fox from 75-150 yards over the last 20 rounds and has gained at least 3.4 strokes putting in his last two starts, which were a T12 at Charles Schwab and T10 in Canada. As a longshot in a wide-open field, he has the game to make some noise this week, especially in his current form.