Saints vs. Eagles: Odds, picks, stats and betting trends for Week 3

After a gutting loss, the Philadelphia Eagles’ record fell to 1-1. Week 2 was a game where their defense was exposed. It was a game against a physically impaired Kirk Cousins, and the defensive line wasn’t able to breathe on him but just one time. 

The Saints are in an entirely different boat with their 2-0 record and NFL-leading point differential of plus-62 points. Their offensive success is seemingly all due to new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, who has unlocked just about every playmaker.

Saints vs. Eagles preview

There are two ways this game can go for the Eagles: They can win this game and save the season, or they can lose and continue a spiral that was started in 2023. If they win, that means they beat an electric offense which would do a whole lot in making everybody feel better about the defense. If they lose, it will mean they have lost eight of their last ten games and panic buttons are going to be smashed until everyone’s palms are bloody and broken.

What to expect from offenses

(All of the numbers, stats, and whatnot being used here are from NFLPro and Next Gen Stats)

For the Eagles, the biggest thing going into this game offensively is that it seems very very likely that A.J. Brown will be inactive with his ongoing hamstring injury. Even though the Eagles' offense functioned pretty well without him in Week 2, his absence was felt big time in explosive passing plays; the Eagles had none.

You can chalk that up to a few things: Passing is down in the NFL, the two best players on the Falcons’ defense are their safeties, and the Eagles didn’t have a full week to build a game plan for an A.J.-less offense. Whatever that reason is, it needs to change quick, fast, and in a hurry.

Another big thing about the Eagles’ offense is that Jalen’s legs look really really good. He wasn’t necessarily beating guys around the outside, but when he got north and south... Woo buddy.

You could throw two or three guys in front of him to try to get him down, but he has the power and speed to either make them miss or lower his shoulder and send them into The Upside Down. It was awesome to see that he’s healthy.

That kind of rushing potential is going to make Saquon’s life easier. Whenever the defense has to defend against two running threats, it’s going to slow them down and put an uptick in the offense’s efficiency. That’s exaggerated even more when the offensive line is playing as well as the Eagles’ is right now. 

The passing game will hopefully look a little more fleshed out. DeVonta Smith didn’t have a target in Week 2 until there was 1:17 left in the first quarter. At that point, Jahan Dotson, Britain Covey, Johnny Wilson, and Dallas Goedert all had a target, while Grant Calcaterra had two. That’s not an incredibly effective usage of playmakers. 

There’s also something to be said about Britain Covey’s target share over Goederts’. Covey caught all six of the balls thrown his way while Goedert caught three of four. Based on those numbers alone, it’s clear that Covey is a reliable receiver. The thing is, five of Covey's catches were either short out-routes or bubble screens (the other one he showed really good awareness on a third down scramble drill and moved the chains).

This is to say, Dallas Goedert does phenomenally when he catches the ball on those out routes. His bread and butter are getting yards after the catch when all he has to do is break a tackle from a cornerback. It’d be cool (and probably super helpful) if some of those out routes were run by Goedert rather than Covey.

The Eagles are on a short week after the Week 2 Monday night game, but at least now they know A.J. Brown won’t be part of the game plan. When he was with the Cowboys, Kellen Moore’s offense used tight ends a whole lot, so it shouldn’t be hard for him to incorporate a tight end into the passing game. Hopefully, that’s the case in Week 3. 

Now for the New Orleans offense… They’re just really really good right now. They’re at the top of pretty much every offensive metric. They have the best offensive DVOA, the most points, the most yards per play, the highest EPA per play, and the lowest number of QB pressures. 

Their quarterback Derek Carr has the highest passer rating in the NFL, the most yards per attempt, the second-highest completion percentage, the highest completion percentage over expected, and the second-highest EPA per dropback.

Their running back Alvin Kamara is averaging 99 rushing yards per game, 5.7 yards per carry, and 3.3 rushing yards after contact. He’s also had four rushing touchdowns and one receiving touchdown. 

Their wide receivers Rasheed Shaheed are great too. Shaheed is an explosion waiting to happen and Olave has all the makings of a top-10 wide receiver in the NFL if he gets the opportunity to show it. Their offense is truly firing on all cylinders. 

The miracles Klint Kubiak has done are up there with curing leprosy. In the past, Derek Carr has been a pile of mud and Kamara has been just a dump off target. This offense is just clicking right now, but there’s a huge caveat: they’ve played two bad teams. 

In Week 1, they walked all over the Carolina Panthers and put up 47 points. In Week 2, they thrashed a Cowboys defense for 44 points. 

This is all due to the offense putting Carr in a good position. Their offense loves a zone run, which is exactly how the Falcons’ offense just racked up 6.9 yards per carry on the Eagles' defense in Week 2. Off of that, they’ll run play action, and then they’ll run play action after that. After that play action, they’ll run play action again. That’s because the Saints run play-action 45.2 percent of the time, which is ludicrously high.

Historically, Carr is bad when he gets pressured and this year, he’s only been pressured on eight of his 39 passing attempts (20.5 percent). That low number of ‘39’ is important because it means he hasn’t really been forced to throw the ball.

The only starting quarterback to throw fewer passes than Derek Carr is Jordan Love and Love only played one game. There is a very good reason to believe that if Carr gets tested, he’ll turn back into the pumpkin that we know and love.

The Saints' offense will burn out at some point during the season, but given what the Eagles’ defense has done, it won’t be this week. This will be a spot where the offense will need to win the game.

What to expect from defenses

The Eagles defense is bad. They’re allowing the third-most yards per game, the second-most yards per play, the most rushing yards per play, The most rushing yards over expected, and the sixth-most rushing yards before contact.

All of that starts with the defensive line. So, until further notice, the Eagles defensive line is dead. They don’t exist and they’ll do nothing to affect the game. Your cousin’s kid who got held back in the third grade and is a little bit bigger than all of his classmates should try to Invincible his way onto the Eagles’ defensive line.

They’re bad against the run and they’re bad at pass rushing. Ideally, they would be good at both. Preferably, they would be good at either. Realistically, they’re abysmal all around. That’s reality, and life is going to be better if we just accept it. We won’t accept it nor should we, but it seems responsible to just make a PSA like that.

Jalen Carter isn’t showing the pop we thought he would. Jordan Davis has been just okay against the run. Milton Williams got the only sack the defensive line has had. Josh Sweat is a better run defender than he is a pass rusher (but that’s not a hard bar to clear). Bryce Huff is showing very little effort and should be inactive. Brandon Graham is 36 years old and should be on a pitch count, but the team can’t afford to do that because he’s shown the most juice out of anyone.  

The linebackers definitely took a step back from Week 1 to Week 2, but some of that was due to the Falcons' ability to effortlessly make it to the second level and take out Zack Baun. They’re going to need to be absolute stonewalls to put up a fight against the Saints’ lethal ground game. 

The defensive backs have been really good. Aside from a few costly reps in Week 2, they’ve been really solid. Quinyon Mitchell has been a force to be reckoned with but made a rookie mistake when he let Darnell Mooney get outside of him on the Falcons' final drive. Slay has been good except for when he got burned by a really good route run by Drake London to score the go-ahead touchdown.

As far as the safeties go, they’re doing their jobs. Reed Blankenship has been playing tight coverage and making tackles everywhere on the field, and C.J. Gardner-Johnson has been a wild card. He is very physical when he’s playing downhill, but he’s missed some tackles. It will be a revenge game for him though, so that’ll be fun to watch. Everyone loves a good revenge game.

That being said, it’s a tough matchup for the secondary with Shaheed and Olave being incredibly dangerous while Carr has all the time and comfort he wants while he’s in the pocket. They’ll have to work for their money in Week 3. 

The Saints' heavy play action paired with their strong running game is going to move the Eagles' linebackers and open up throws underneath with the potential for some big yards after the catch.

Tackling is going to be incredibly important, because, duh. Unfortunately, that’s not exactly a sure thing for this Eagles defense. Missed tackles have been an issue and it’s not necessarily an easy one to fix.

The whole thing here is that the defensive line isn’t doing its job. If they got pressure, the linebackers would be able to play free and the secondary wouldn’t have to defend against more-or-less perfect passes. It all starts in the trenches, and they’re a liability that hurts the entire team. 

The Saints' defense is pretty straightforward and effective, but it’s tough to assess what’s really going on. They’ve jumped out to these huge leads and that makes opposing offenses incredibly predictable and single-faceted. Not to mention, the Panthers' offense looks like a bunch of blacked-out kittens. 

The success that the Saints have had defensively could be a charade because their offense is so dominant. Think about the Eagles' defense in 2022: they had a thousand sacks because the offense forced the defense into a negative game script. That’s where the Saints are, but it’s also been against offenses that offer nothing. 

The Saints play aggressive man coverage and they’ll bring up a safety. If A.J. Brown was in this game, it’d be killer. The pressure is going to be on the Eagles’ pass catchers to win and for Jalen to throw the ball where his receivers are the only ones who can get it. 

The Saint’s linebackers and defensive line can be exposed by the Eagles' offensive line and dominant run game. They have good players in Demario Davis, Pete Werner, and Cam Jordan who can all be mega-disruptive, but they haven’t had to fight an offensive line like the Eagles’.

If the Eagles are going to win this game, it’s going to be on the defensive backfield and a consistent offense. Remember how the Eagles lost that game to Washington in 2022? Washington had inferior talent all around but dominated the time of possession and didn’t let the Eagles get hardly any explosive plays. 

This is different but kind of the same. The Eagles' defense won’t regularly limit explosive plays because they can’t affect Derek Carr, but the offense is incredibly talented and they’ve shown that they can play that same kind of time-sucking bully ball. 

In Week 2, they had three drives that were 10 or more plays and each of those drives drained at least five minutes off the clock. The Eagles could easily try to make explosive plays to keep up with the Saints, but without A.J., that’ll be a tall task to do consistently. The best bet is to choke them out with a dominant offensive line and ground game. Then cross your fingers that the defense can throw some pennies on the railroad track to derail the high-speed train that is the Saints’ offense.

How to watch Saints vs. Eagles live 

• Date: Sunday, September 22, 2024
• Time: 1 p.m. Eastern
• Site: Caesars Superdome
• City: New Orleans, LA
• TV/Streaming: Fox

Latest game odds for Saints vs. Eagles in Week 3

The latest odds as of Thursday morning via DraftKings:

• Moneyline: Saints -148, Eagles +124
• Spread: Eagles +2.5
• Total: 49.5

Saints vs. Eagles team stats and betting trends

Derek Carr is in his 11th year in the NFL. He hasn’t played against a Vic Fangio defense with the New Orleans Saints, but in his time in Oakland and Las Vegas, his teams played Fangio’s defense seven times. 

• Derek Carr is 4-3 SU against Vic Fangio’s defense.
• He’s 6-1 ATS when playing a Fangio defense.
• The Saints are 8-10-1 ATS in the Carr-era.
• In that time, they are 4-5 ATS at home.
• They’re also 5-8-1 as a favorite.
• They’re 4-4 as a home favorite.

Jalen Hurts has a pretty important history with Dennis Allen and the Saints. Back in 2020, he started his first game at home against New Orleans and the Eagles won 24-21… so that’s pretty neat.

• Jalen Hurts is 2-0 SU against the Saints.
• He’s also 2-0 ATS against them.
• In the Jalen Hurts-era, the Eagles have only been underdogs 13 times.
• They are 4-9 ATS in those games.
• As road dogs, the Eagles are 3-5 ATS.
• Kellen Moore’s offense is 1-1 SU and ATS against Dennis Allen’s defense.
• Moore scored 12 points in 2019 and 27 points in 2021.
• Both of those games went under their totals.

Player news and injuries

These are the injury reports as of Wednesday. They’ll probably definitely change, and the Eagles had a walk-through rather than a full-blown practice, so take it with a grain of salt.

A.J. Brown and Johnny Wilson were both listed as “Did Not Practice” with hamstring injuries. Things don’t look good for A.J. Brown’s immediate future, but we’ve already covered that. A good guess is that he’s probably out until Week 6, after the bye week. 

The Johnny Wilson thing kind of stinks. He was a DNP before the Week 2 game, but he still played. He’ll be one to keep an eye on going into the weekend. He’s only been targeted a couple of times, but he’s a big body and that can be useful in the red zone. So far he’s been more effective as a blocker (except for that holding call where he was white-knuckling the defenders’ jersey).

The Saints’ injury report is more extensive and interesting. Taysom Hill (DNP, chest), Marshawn Lattimore (Limited, hamstring), Tyrann Matthieu (Limited, heel), and Taliese Fuaga (Limited, back) are the four big names of the eight players who were either limited or DNP on the report.

Taysom Hill is a wild card on offense that can line up anywhere and do anything on the field. If he’s not playing or not 100%, it’s a plus for the Eagles. Marshawn Lattimore is a pretty good cornerback and he missed the Saints Week 2 game. Tyrann Mathieu is a veteran safety who has played over 98 percent of the snaps last year and 72 percent of the defensive snaps this year. Taliese Fuaga was the Saints first-round pick of the 2024 draft and he’s their starting left tackle. They’re a team without tremendous depth on the offensive line, so if there is any semblance of hope for the pass rush to win somewhere, a good spot would be there.