Scottie Barnes contract details, grade: Raptors star breaks bank and franchise history

Scottie Barnes and the Toronto Raptors have agreed to a five-year maximum rookie extension that could be worth up to $270 million, according to Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN. The contract, when signed, will be the largest in Raptors' history. However, the deal cannot be finalized until July 6 when free agency officially begins. Until then, Pascal Siakam will continue to hold the title for the largest contract in the Raptors' history.

Will Scottie Barnes reach the supermax?

The exact details of the extension are unknown, but a rookie scale max extension provides a player 25 percent of the cap in the first year of the contract and can see up to 8 percent raises each season. There is also a chance that Barnes will have a fifth-year player option. Based on the language of the reporting, Barnes will have to hit certain milestones to make up to $270 million over the deal's life.

A good example of how variable Barnes' contract could be is Ja Morant's deal with the Grizzlies. When Morant signed his rookie scale extension it contained supermax language. The baseline for the deal was five-years, $194 million, but if he made an All-NBA team following the 2022-23 season, he would have seen his compensation jump to $233 million. Morant missed out on making All-NBA, largely due to suspension, and cost himself close to $40 million in the process.

Scottie Barnes extension grade

The Raptors handing Scottie Barnes a rookie scale max extension was a foregone conclusion. After winning the 2022 Rookie of the Year, the Raptors spent the past year shedding veteran talent to thrust more responsibility onto Barnes. Without Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam, and OG Anunoby, Barnes was given the keys to the car and had an exceptional season. He produced career highs in points, rebounds, assists, blocks, and steals per game while having the most efficient shooting season of his young career and earned an All-Star nod for his work.

His season averages of 19.9 points, 8.2 rebounds, 6.1 assists, 1.5 blocks, and 1.3 steals per game made him a uniquely productive player. The only other player to average over 19/8/6/1/1 was Giannis Antetokounmpo. However, Barnes' third season was by far the best of his career, and he only sported a usage rate of 24.8 percent. He was the clear number-one option for the Raptors, but it remains to be seen if he can be a true first option for a playoff team.

My projection system called for him to land an extension that pays him 22.1 percent of the salary cap on average, but the component that just looked at third-year offensive production tagged him for 27 percent. Handing him an extension that starts at 25 percent is a completely reasonable deal, and if it exceeds that, it means his game will have gone to another level.

If the Raptors were able to negotiate a deal without a player option, the grade for the extension would be a B. However, if Barnes landed a contract with supermax language and a player option, then the grade drops to a C. Scottie Barnes is an excellent young player, but he's about to get much more expensive. With the deal likely containing supermax language, the Raptors don't have much upside from a surplus value standpoint unless Barnes develops into a top-10 player. They locked up their franchise cornerstone on a market-rate deal which is what teams should do. However, the upside appears to be limited.

Grade: B