The Whiteboard: Scottie Barnes' jumpshot changed everything for the Raptors

The Toronto Raptors came up short against the Bulls Thursday night but received another sterling effort from Scottie Barnes — 31 points, 7 rebounds, 6 assists. As the rest of the roster is remade around it's becoming increasingly clear that Barnes will be the centerpiece for the next iteration of this team, and he appears up for the challenge.

After a slightly down second season, Barnes has absolutely expanded this year — averaging 20.4 points, 8.4 rebounds, 5.6 assists, 1.4 steals and 1.5 blocks per game, with new career highs in both usage rate and assist percentage. But the most important development has been his suddenly reliable jumper. (I touched on this earlier in the season but the development has held.)

Making jumpers has changed everything for Scottie Barnes

Barnes' length, versatility, handle and vision gave him enormous offensive upside but he really struggled to score away from the basket. Last season, he shot 28.1 percent on 3-pointers and just 33 percent on 2-pointers outside of 10 feet. This year, those numbers have climbed to 37.2 percent and 41 percent, respectively.

Check out the difference in his true shooting charts (normal shot charts but also including free throws from fouls drawn by location), courtesy of Positive Residual.

These charts really illustrate what a dramatic change there's been in his jump-shooting and the hot spots are each meaningful in their own right. It's weird that his corner 3-point accuracy has flipped directionality but he's also been better from the corner this season helping with general spacing when someone else is initiating. That hot spot on the left baseline is primarily shooting over smaller players in the post.

The 3-point zone beyond the arc and right of center is especially important because, as a right-handed player he's usually moving that direction into a screen. Shooting well from that area is a mix of spot-ups but also leveraging scenarios where his defender is hung up on a screen or going under. The hotter he is from there, the more aggressively the defense needs to play him and the more options he has for attacking off the dribble or finding open teammates.

And finally, the hot spot around the elbows is an ideal mix of shooting over the top in face-up scenarios, drilling jumpers in pick-and-pop situations when he's screening and shooting over the top of drop coverage in the pick-and-roll when he's handling the ball. And, it's worth highlighting that being a better jump shooter has also helped him be more efficient around the rim, in part because defenses have to play him differently.

All that explains the ramifications of his new jumper but the simple fact that he's done it as all is incredible. The graph below shows all players this season who have attempted at least 200 shots from beyond 10 feet, by total attempts and effective field goal percentage. I've also included Barnes' marks from last season just to illustrate his absurd growth.

Last season, Scottie Barnes was the least efficient jumpshooter in the league on even moderate volume. This season, on increased volume, he's in the middle of the pack with an effective field percentage on shots of 10 or more feet that's better than Jayson Tatum, DeMar DeRozan, Anthony Edwards, Brandon Ingram, Damian Lillard, Devin Booker, LeBron James, Max Strus, Austin Reaves, Zach LaVine, RJ Barrett, Chris Paul, Franz Wagner, Anthony Davis, Kristaps Porzingis and dozens of others.

Barnes has a ton of special tools but without a functional jumper, they just don't work in the same way. Without a consistent outside shot, his future was probably as a role player, a Kyle Anderson or Thad Young. With a jumper like this, he's a star.

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The Big Three: Kevin Reyes on the Pelicans, Pacers and MVP performances

Kevin Reyes is one of the newer additions to our FanSided NBA team and he's quickly made his mark with deep and thoughtful analysis, like his piece yesterday on how first-round draft picks have become overvalued in trade discussions.

Kevin joins us today to answer three big questions on the Pelicans, Pacers and the MVP matchup between Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid. You can read more of his work here and follow him on Twitter.

1. Over the past three years, the Pelicans are  in high and very-high leverage situations with Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson on the floor. What does this pairing need to figure out in the clutch?

At this point, I think there should be serious questions about the viability of this duo in close games and the playoffs. Because, at no point have they had success together in these situations — they have a 54-69 record in clutch games in the past four seasons. Even last year, where they had a top-10 offense and defense in the clutch and a plus-10 net rating (tied for fifth) in these types of games, they still found themselves 17-20 in clutch games. This year, it's particularly bad, as they're bottom six in both offensive and defensive ratings in close games. Safe to say that the 2022-23 season is an outlier and they're vulnerable.

In short, I would suggest that they give the ball more to Zion. In the past four seasons, Ingram has taken the load of the attempts in the clutch, and that's led to mixed results. This season, Ingram has had 34 attempts in the clutch, shooting 44 percent on them, while Zion is at 52 percent on just 17. The lone season in this sample they've had success in the clutch of that sample, it was Williamson that led them in attempts per game in the clutch with 2.9 attempts. Of course, his free throw shooting has to improve (this year he's 4-10 on free throws in the clutch, and getting intentionally fouled and missing against Dallas isn't the best look) for him to be a bigger threat, but giving the ball to the big fella has shown it can get them better results.

There are questions to be had with the long-term viability of the Ingram/Williamson duo, and those are fair. Nevertheless, they've shown potential of being able to close out games. In that regard, the spacing has improved, and it gives Williamson space to attack the rim, he's also shown his efficiency doesn't fall drastically in these situations. That might be their solution.

2. With Siakam and a healthy Tyrese Haliburton, the Pacers have the ___th best roster in the East?

I'm very high on the Pacers post-Siakam trade. They're not as top-heavy as other teams in the East are, with superstars that have dominated for multiple seasons, but come as close to that as possible with a 23-year-old phenom, a proven All-Star caliber player added and depth that few teams in the entire league can match. Seriously, Indiana could go 11 deep with a rotation of proven lead guards (Haliburton, Andrew Nembhard, TJ McConnell), efficient shooting (Buddy Hield, Bennedict Mathurin, Aaron Nesmith, Obi Toppin), and dependable bigs (Myles Turner, Jalen Smith, Isaiah Jackson). They added a little bit of everything with Siakam, including an at-worst above-average defender that can boost their bottom-five defense.

I still wouldn't project them to finish top four in the East. But, in terms of roster, they have a good one for now, and for the future (presumably, anyway).

I would say that the Pacers have, as presently constructed, are the third-best roster in the East. Boston is the class of the conference with the best starting lineup in the league and a top-eight that is really good. I would also say the Miami Heat are up there, as their starting unit (when healthy) is great on both ends, can also go 11 deep (just look at what they do with all their injuries), have the best coach in the NBA, and have a proven track record of stepping up when it matters most.

The Pacers slot in right below. In terms of being top-heavy, I would still pick the Knicks starters over them, and the Bucks and 76ers top three, but all those teams lack the depth that I'm looking at when assessing this answer. Granted, this doesn't mean I would pick Indiana to beat any of these teams in a playoff series. But, with the addition of Siakam, they aren't far from that level.

3. How much do head-to-head matchups, like this week's between Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokic, matter in your personal MVP calculus?

They shouldn't be the main factor considered, but they should be in the equation. Most of the discussions should focus on their individual numbers, how much of their team's success depends on them and their overall success (place in the standings). Of course, it's all subjective, there isn't a straight equation to decide these things, and these discussions shouldn't be centered on belittling players, but rather finding things that make a candidate stand out among the rest. One of those things, for me, is these head-to-head matchups.

I call them as "MVP Performances", which are games where candidates either face off against each other, face another elite team or play in a marquee matchup. While I will not criticize superstars for performing like superstars against bad teams (I'm looking at you, person who makes a fuss every time Embiid dominates against a bad team), these performances in particular should be bookmarked for the discussion. Though, at the same time, they're only a discussion for maybe a day at best, and then we move along to the next thing. But it's still fun to talk about, and I'm sure serves as extra motivation for the players in these scenarios to go at another elite player and show they're better. They can't tell me otherwise.

Recommended Reading:

1. When there's no No. 1 pick, everyone is a No. 1 pick: "ESPN recently polled 20 NBA executives on who will be the top pick. Perth's Alex Sarr received the most votes with 12, followed by G League Ignite's Ron Holland (2), USC's Isaiah Collier (1), and Red Star's Nikola Topic (1). Four executives simply refused to answer, which is the perfect summation of how nonsensical the question even is right now. There is no clear-cut choice. In addition to those on the ESPN poll, JL Bourg's Zaccharie Risacher, Colorado's Cody Williams, and G League Ignite's Matas Buzelis all merit special attention when it comes to potential No. 1 picks. So much of the draft landscape won't become clear until individual workouts start and teams begin to develop more concrete opinions, often with a heavy flavor of recency bias." 2024 NBA Mock Draft: Pistons face difficult decision in No. 1 spot

2. Pascal Siakam is 1-of-1: "Yet, it’s an intrinsic style that still feels strange and unorthodox to the defense and the viewer, a break from the on-court habitus of either a true wing or a true big. It’s uncanny and, frankly, a bit weird—like if Pinocchio were stretched to 6-foot-8 and taught himself how to play like Kobe without ever knowing what he looked like, instead internalizing Mamba folklore verbally passed down to him by Geppetto." Pascal Siakam Made Himself a Star. Can He Make the Pacers a Contender?

3. Age is more than just a number: "This is where I think it’s helpful to differentiate between the age of a team’s stars, and the age of its supporting cast. Because while Brooklyn and Dallas have the exact same minutes-weighted overall (26.5), the players Dallas has surrounding Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are far younger (26.4) than the ones Brooklyn has surrounding Mikal Bridges (29.3)." How old is your favorite team's supporting cast?