Scottish Open picks 2024: Expert picks, best bets for The Renaissance Club

Even with many of golf's biggest stars taking a break over the past few weeks, we've been treated to some phenomenal outings on the PGA Tour. Now, it's time for the heavy-hitters to enter the fray once again as we head across the Atlantic Ocean to the DP World Tour stop at The Renaissance Club for the 2024 Genesis Scottish Open before heading to Royal Troon next week for The Open Championship.

The one notable omission from this week's field is World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler. He'll return next week but that leaves defending Scottish Open champion Rory McIlroy as the favorite this week. One of the things that makes this co-sanctioned PGA Tour-DP World Tour event so much fun -- beyond general enjoyment of links-style golf -- is the mix of the top players from both tours.

But what does that mean for our Scottish Open picks and best bets this week? It means more darts to throw at the board (not blindly, to be sure). So after a strong week up over 6.0 units last week at the John Deere, our attention is now on The Renaissance Club and our picks this week, starting with Top 10, winner and One and Done picks.

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Golf betting record in 2024 through John Deere: 24-151-0, -36.98 Units (1-66 on outrights and longshots | +6.15 units at John Deere) | One and Done Total for 2024: $14,595,327 (Eric Cole at John Deere Classic, $252,400)

Scottish Open picks for Winner, Top 10, One and Done

Top 10 pick for the Scottish Open: Tom Kim (+225)

If there's one reason to be afraid of Tom Kim this week, it'd be the missed cut at the Rocket Mortgage two weeks ago. However, he'd played more than two months straight coming into that and probably shouldn't have even teed it up. And once you believe that, there's no reason not to love him this week. He has two starts at the Scottish Open, which have resulted in a T6 and a solo third finish. He was also T4 at the RBC Canadian Open at Hamilton Golf & Country Club, a leaderboard strongly correlated to last year's at The Renaissance club. With him also having gained 4.35 strokes or more on approach and 2.38 strokes or more driving in three of his previous four starts before Detroit, I'm all in now on him being in the mix on the first page of the leaderboard.

Pick to win the Scottish Open (0.5 Units): Ludvig Åberg (+1600)

This is the first time I've ever bet on Ludvig Åberg, right? In all honesty, I'm fully aware that I have a soft spot for the young Swede that is dangerous -- but the numbers are so good that it feels like he ultimately has to win, even if by mistake, soon. Over the last 12 rounds, he's sixth in SG: Off-the-Tee, 14th in SG: Tee-to-Green, 10th in SG: Par 4s 450-500 yards and gaining with the putter. The slowest greens of the year should also help a sometimes erratic short game as well. Furthermore, when Ludvig has played in Europe as a pro over the past year, his finishes have been elite. I think he's an ideal fit with his tee-to-green prowess and a short game that should be mitigated.

One and Done pick for the Scottish Open: Tommy Fleetwood

Tommy Fleetwood is off of US soil in a non-major, so that means you have to give him a look. In all seriousness, there are a lot of reasons to like the Englishman this week, which we'll unpack momentarily -- and the best bet he's a part of will make it obvious why he's a One and Done pick after having already burned Åberg this year.

Be sure to check out more best bets and analysis from myself and SI Betting's Iain Macmillan on Green on the Greens below.

Scottish Open picks: More best bets for The Renaissance Club

Tommy Fleetwood to finish Top 5 at the Scottish Open (+350)

In the same vein as Tom Kim, this is partially a form play and partially a horse-for-course play. Fleetwood has a longer history at the Scottish Open but has a T6 in 2023, a T4 in 2022, a T26 in 2021 and a runner-up finish in 2020 on his ledger. You'll take that every day of the week. What's more, he appears to be trending toward a big pop week. He gained 7.2 strokes ball striking at the Travelers and has gained at least 2.3 strokes ball striking in his last five starts. He hasn't peaked with his finishes necessarily but the floor since the start of May has been only a T26. That's great stuff and should lead to a big spike at a place where he's enjoyed tremendous success.

Sebastian Söderberg to finish Top 20 at the Scottish Open (+320)

Now we get into the real value of our Scottish Open picks, the DP World Tour-centric players who have been dominant. Sebastian Söderberg made headlines with a choke job at the Scandanavian Mixed event where he missed shot after shot to blow a lead and finish T2. Having said that, outside of a WD in his last start -- a slight concern -- he has one finish worse than T3 in his last five starts, which was a T68 but made cut at the US Open. He's been doing it largely with his approach play and a solid though unspectacular putter based on the limited data available but the finishes indicate a player being undervalued this week.

Jordan Smith to finish Top 20 at the Scottish Open (+375)

And yet another European and DP World Tour stalwart, Jordan Smith has my attention. He has not had the consistency of Söderberg this year but the peaks have been quite impressive. Most recently, he finished T2 at the BMW International Open. The big key there was gaining with the short game. It was 5.83 strokes putting last week but, at the same time, even a less positive week with the way he's been striking the ball could play well this week as he's gained at least 5.6 strokes ball striking in three of his last five events. It's a bit of a longshot for a Top 20 but the upside and value are too enticing for me to punt on.

Longshot pick to win the Scottish Open (0.1 Units): Sebastian Söderberg (+10000)

We wrap up with a little sprinkle on Söderberg at 100/1 odds. Look, I'm scared of his choking earlier in the year as well. At the same time, he's been in contention and in the mix so many times this year with tremendous form that I'm not going to take advantage of a potential opportunity for him to break through this week.