SEC College Football Playoff bubble watch, Week 4: Oklahoma falls, Mizzou close call

College Football Playoff bubble watch for the SEC

Week 4 of the college football season provided us with the same amount of answers as it did lingering questions. A few teams at the top have truly started to separate, while conference play has revealed a few teams to not be as good as we thought they were. In time, we will figure this out, but for now, we must only go on what we have seen through the first four weeks of the 2024 college season.

As far as the College Football Playoff picture is concerned, the SEC projects to have around five, maybe even six, teams getting in this year. The Big Ten is almost certainly getting in at least three. For now, only the ACC, Big 12 and Group of Five champions are slated to get in out of their leagues or levels. But if we take this back to the SEC, we have to start to wonder where the line of demarcation is.

So what I am going to do today is reveal my projected playoff field through four weeks, as well as divvy where each and every SEC team lies in the College Football Playoff conversation. Some teams feel like locks at this point, while others are firmly on the bubble. Although not every SEC team is really in the mix for a playoff berth this year, some are more fun than others to watch this season.

Let's start by unveiling who would be my 12 teams in the College Football Playoff field after Week 4.

Projected College Football Playoff field

1. Texas Longhorns (4-0) (SEC champion)
2. Ohio State Buckeyes (3-0) (Big Ten champion)
3. Miami Hurricanes (3-0) (ACC champion)
4. Utah Utes (Big 12 champion)
5. Georgia Bulldogs (SEC runner-up)
6. Ole Miss Rebels (SEC at-large)
7. Alabama Crimson Tide (SEC at-large)
8. Tennessee Volunteers (SEC at-large)
9. Penn State Nittany Lions (Big Ten runner-up)
10. Oregon Ducks (Big Ten at-large)
11. Missouri Tigers (SEC at-large)
12. UNLV Rebels (Mountain West champion/Group of Five champion)

Now, let's break down where every SEC team stands after Week 4 regarding the playoff picture.

SEC College Football Playoff bubble watch after Week 4

College Football Playoff locks

Texas Longhorns (4-0)

Texas was the No. 1 team in the country last week in the latest AP Top 25 Poll, and I envision that the Longhorns will stay atop the polls again this week. ULM was no match for Arch Manning and the boys, but even with how well Ohio State played vs. Marshall, Georgia did not play this week. As we thought all along, Texas is still every bit a national championship contender and are absolutely a playoff lock.

Georgia Bulldogs (3-0)

Georgia did not play this week, but everything we have seen out of the Dawgs up to this point leads us to believe that they are every bit the playoff lock. Despite the close scare on the road vs. Kentucky, Georgia has still not allowed a touchdown this season. This team got the bye at the perfect time. Even if they come up short on the road vs. Alabama, the Dawgs are not going to be docked too much for it.

Ole Miss Rebels (4-0)

No way around it, Ole Miss looks dominant. The Rebels have one of the most explosive offenses in the country, and a defense to back it up, too. While Ole Miss has not played the best competition, you can only play who is on your schedule. The Rebels passed their non-conference part of their season with flying colors. How they perform in conference play will determine if the Rebels can get to Atlanta.

Alabama Crimson Tide (3-0)

Ahead of their huge home game vs. Georgia, Alabama was also on its annual bye week. While Alabama looked much better all-around in its Week 3 game vs. Wiconsin at Camp Randall, they did play with their food a bit vs. a very feisty South Florida team. Alabama has not skipped a beat so far under Kalen DeBoer's watch, but they have not played a team like Georgia yet. It will be a great one!

Tennessee Volunteers (4-0)

Even in victory, I saw some concerns out of the Tennessee Volunteers. While I love their defense, I am afraid that Nico Iamaleava and the offense will get got vs. a more balanced and better overall team than Oklahoma. It was a sloppy game, chock full of ball security issues. Tennessee prevailed because they took advantage of OU's early mistakes. The Sooners got better after benching Jackson Arnold.

College Football Playoff bubble teams

Missouri Tigers (4-0)

Missouri might be 4-0 on the season, but I don't trust the Tigers. They were in my playoff field yet again, but I don't feel good about it. Being pushed around by Boston College and now Vanderbilt in back-to-back weeks is not sitting well with me. This team plays good defense, is well-coached and nows how to win tight games, but I have some major concerns about the team's offensive firepower.

Oklahoma Sooners (4-0)

Give Brent Venables for making a tough decision in the middle of a game that was getting away from his team. Jackson Arnold did not look ready for the big moment. He was so beyond careless with the football. Once Michael Hawkins Jr. replaced him at quarterback, Oklahoma played better shortly thereafter. I am not saying they would have beaten Tennessee, but they did put a real scare in them.

LSU Tigers (3-1)

Has rattled off three wins in a row since falling to USC over Labor Day Weekend. After being pushed to the brink by South Carolina last week, the Bayou Bengals won fairly easily over what might be the worst team in the Big Ten in UCLA. LSU needed to build up confidence in the non-conference heading into SEC. I'm not sure the UCLA will offer them a lot of that, but I'm not crossing LSU off yet.

Texas A&M Aggies (3-1)

Bowling Green may be 1-2, but the Falcons pushed the Penn State Nittany Lions to the brink back in Week 2 as well. Texas A&M has now won three games in a row since losing at home to Notre Dame back in Week 1. It is not perfect, but the Aggies may have something in Marcel Reed at quarterback. More importantly, this team is figuring out how to win under its new head coach in Mike Elko already.

Fun, but not College Football Playoff caliber

South Carolina Gamecocks (3-1)

The reason I do not have South Carolina as a College Football Playoff-caliber team this season is I don't trust the inherent volatility that emanates from Shane Beamer on the sidelines. While wiping the floor with Akron could help South Carolina develop some confidence heading into the bulk of SEC play. This is firmly a bowl team, in my estimation, but they have a ways to go to be even a playoff team.

Arkansas Razorbacks (3-1)

Arkansas has already matched my projected win total for the Hogs this season. Apparently, hiring Bobby Petrino to coordinate their offense was a good thing. If not for a stumble in overtime vs. Oklahoma State, Arkansas would be undefeated. I think they are going to upset someone of significance in SEC play, but I question if they have enough upside to be any better than an 8-4 team.

Not a College Football Playoff team in 2024

Vanderbilt Commodores (2-2)

Vanderbilt nearly did it, but close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades. Through the first third of the season, I can safely say that Vanderbilt is not going to be an easy out for anyone. But unlike Arkansas and South Carolina, I don't think they have enough firepower offensively to truly win in multiple ways. They will upset someone, but this may only be a .500 team under Clark Lea for now.

Kentucky Wildcats (2-2)

Kentucky got back in the win column by handing Ohio U in the non-conference. Had the Wildcats proven victorious over Georgia two weeks ago, they might be in the playoff bubble. For now, we still are not entirely sure if the Wildcats will be anything more than a .500 team this season. Unlike with Vanderbilt, that may not be good enough for the athletic department. Mark Stoops must win more.

Florida Gators (2-2)

Florida staved off Billy Napier's elimination for at least another week or so by beating Mississippi State in Starkville. This was a win the Gators had to have. Otherwise, I wasn't entirely they would have another on the schedule. Napier is still feeling a ton of heat, but the Gators took advantage of a Mississippi State that is not only rebuilding, but completely lacks an identity under Jeff Lebby.

Auburn Tigers (2-2)

This has been such a disappointing season for Auburn football already. Not only did they get upset at home by Cal two weeks ago, but the Tigers could not go toe-for-toe with the Arkansas Razorbacks on Saturday. Hugh Freeze will eventually get this thing right down on The Plains, but it is not going to be this year. Auburn may turn a corner in the second half or some point later on, but not right now.

Mississippi State Bulldogs (1-3)

Mississippi State is by far and away the worst team in the SEC through the first month of the season. Jeff Lebby may be a first-time head coach, but he inherited a tough situation in Starkville. We know he is an offensive guru of sorts, but adjusting to being a head at a Power Four program is not coming easy. What frustrates me the most is Mississippi State has a softer schedule than most SEC teams.

All I know is we may have a better sense of who is and isn't a playoff team out of the SEC next week.