SEC College Football Playoff bubble watch, Week 5: Georgia and Ole Miss both stumble

College Football Playoff bubble watch for the SEC

Win or lose, weekends like the one we just saw are why college football is the best sport on the planet. While the rest of the Power Four mostly held serve, the SEC was bonkers on Saturday. To set the tone for the day ahead, No. 6 Ole Miss fell at home to unranked Kentucky during Homecoming. To finish the day, No. 2 Georgia lost at No. 4 Alabama in one of the craziest games you will ever see.

Naturally, Ole Miss and Georgia's first losses of the season will impact where the Rebels and Dawgs stand in the College Football Playoff picture out of the SEC. Ole Miss may have only lost by a field goal, but that was at home to an unranked opponent. Georgia lost by a touchdown on the road, but that was to the Dawgs' perpetual menace in a game they nearly pulled off an astonishing comeback.

So what I am going to do today is take a look at all 16 SEC teams and figure out where they fall in the race to qualify for the expanded College Football Playoff. While more than half the conference is definitely still in the mix, keep this in mind: The SEC will be getting in at least four of the 12 teams. However, the league is now way more likely to get five teams in, as opposed to half of them at six.

Let's start by unveiling who would be my 12 teams in the College Football Playoff field after Week 5.

Projected College Football Playoff field

1. Alabama Crimson Tide (4-0) (SEC champion)
2. Ohio State Buckeyes (4-0) Big Ten champion)
3. Miami Hurricanes (5-0) (ACC champion)
4. Iowa State Cyclones (4-0) (Big 12 champion)
5. Texas Longhorns (5-0) (SEC runner-up)
6. Tennessee Volunteers (4-0) (SEC at-large)
7. Georgia Bulldogs (3-1) (SEC at-large)
8. Penn State Nittany Lions (4-0) (Big Ten runner-up)
9. Oregon Ducks (4-0) (Big Ten at-large)
10. Missouri Tigers (4-0) (SEC at-large)
11. Michigan Wolverines (4-1) (Big Ten at-large)
12. Boise State Broncos (3-1) (Mountain West champion/Group of Five champion)

Now, let's break down where every SEC team stands after Week 5 regarding the playoff picture.

SEC College Football Playoff bubble watch after Week 5

College Football Playoff locks

Alabama Crimson Tide (4-0)

Yes, Alabama should move up from No. 4 to No. 1 by beating the brakes off Georgia in the first half, blowing a massive lead late, only to reclaim it in the final minutes. Alabama has only played a third of its schedule, but it is hard for me to see this team missing out on the playoff in any capacity. The Crimson Tide are getting in at 10-2, no questions asked. At 9-3, they have that big win over Georgia.

Texas Longhorns (5-0)

Texas may be a perfect 5-0, but I still really want to see the Longhorns go up against a worthy adversary in SEC play. Beating the snot out of Mississippi State does nothing for me, other than showing that Arch Manning can now win conference games. This team is elite, one that is going to win at least 10 games. Regardless, they are a national title contender and an absolute playoff lock, too.

Tennessee Volunteers (4-0)

Tennessee continues to impress me. While the Volunteers were on a bye this week, the Oklahoma win looks more impressive after seeing the Sooners get past Auburn. The North Carolina State win's prestige may fade with time, but this team plays complementary football. Factor in the Volunteers having a fairly navigable schedule, they should win somewhere between 10 and 12 games to get in.

Georgia Bulldogs (3-1)

This loss stings for both the Georgia program and me personally. Regardless, Georgia was never actually going to run the gauntlet of one of the hardest schedules in the country. If they win out, they obviously get in. At 10-2, they are a lock as well. And even at 9-3, Georgia just needs to take one of three between Ole Miss, Tennessee and Texas to be in a semi-realistic position of making the playoff.

College Football Playoff bubble teams

Missouri Tigers (4-0)

Missouri was on a bye this week. That still doesn't change the fact that I don't trust the Tigers. Mizzou is well-coached, but somewhat limited offensively. The schedule is at-best middle of the pack, but may be in the bottom half of the league. At 10-2, they probably get in, but I can tell you that everybody is going to want to see someone else get in over them, all things equal, if that is the case.

Ole Miss Rebels (4-1)

While Georgia's loss to Alabama stings, Ole Miss' home defeat to Kentucky was absolutely devastating to their playoff dreams. Ole Miss may need to win out to guarantee a spot into the tournament. Even at 10-2, that loss has to come to either Georgia or LSU. In short, the Rebels have to win at least one of those games. Even in that event, a Kentucky loss magnifies their weak schedule.

LSU Tigers (4-1)

LSU will not go away. After losing a heartbreaker during Labor Day Weekend to USC, the Tigers have rattled off four wins in a row. I don't know if the Bayou Bengals have what it takes to get inside the top 12 and stay there, but I have a feeling they will stay in the playoff mix through Thanksgiving. I think that Week 1 loss to the Trojans was a blessing in disguise to take pressure off Brian Kelly's program.

Texas A&M Aggies (4-1)

The same sort of principle applies to Texas A&M. Losing at home Week 1 to Notre Dame did put the Aggies behind the eight ball. With Marcel Reed at quarterback, the Aggies are playing complementary football. As with Ole Miss, LSU and somewhat Missouri, there is not much margin for error to make the playoff should the Aggies sustain another loss. At 10-2, they will be on the fence.

Oklahoma Sooners (4-1)

Beating Auburn down on The Plains was a huge positive step for Oklahoma in joining the SEC. This team is competitive as hell, but flawed in construction. They can hang with anyone, but I question of OU has enough firepower to win multiple big games to make the playoff with something like a 10-2 record. The offense is way better with Michael Hawkins Jr. playing quarterback over Jackson Arnold.

Fun, but not College Football Playoff caliber

Arkansas Razorbacks (3-2)

Somebody had to lose the Southwest Classic between Arkansas and Texas A&M. For as much as the Razorbacks have improved this season, losing to a non-playoff team in Oklahoma State and coming up short vs. a fringe contender in Texas A&M makes it almost impossible for Arkansas to make the playoff now. The Hogs need an upset in the worst way possible. This is a bowl team, but that is it.

South Carolina Gamecocks (3-1)

To be fair, South Carolina may be a bubble team right now. The blowout win over Kentucky looks better by the day. Falling at home to LSU is not looking like a terrible loss either. However, a small sample size on the season and such an arduous climb to get back into the national college football conversation is a bit too much of an ask for the Gamecocks. This team is feisty, but not a contender.

Kentucky Wildcats (3-2)

Fact: Nobody wants to play Kentucky going forward. After the brutal loss to South Carolina in Week 2, the Wildcats have taken Georgia to the brink, blown out Ohio U and upset Ole Miss in Oxford. This team is incredibly limited offensively, but they know how to run the football, play great defense and use special teams to their advantage. This team is back on track to go 7-5, possibly better than that.

Not College Football Playoff teams in 2024

Vanderbilt Commodores (2-2)

Vanderbilt being on a bye afforded me a little more time to assess what I have seen out of the 'Dores through five weeks. Clark Lea is building this team the right way. Diego Pavia gives Vandy a chance to be competitive every week at quarterback. The problem with Vanderbilt is the Commodores play in the SEC. For as much as I want them to get to a bowl game, they still need to win four more games.

Florida Gators (2-2)

Florida should be thanking its lucky stars that the Gators got the Week 4 win over Mississippi State before their first bye week. That took some much-needed pressure off head coach Billy Napier. While I would take pretty much everybody else they go up against in SEC play over them, there is a chance Florida does get to a bowl game this season. It is a slim one, but this team is not keeling over just yet.

Auburn Tigers (2-3)

It has gone to hell in a hand basket for Hugh Freeze at Auburn faster than you can say Bryan Harsin. Going back to Payton Thorne at quarterback gave the Tigers a puncher's chance to upset Oklahoma at home. Now that Auburn has three losses on the year to Cal, Arkansas and Oklahoma, I am doubting this team's chances of going bowling. Keep in mind that they still have to play Alabama and Georgia...

Mississippi State Bulldogs (1-4)

Through five weeks, the worst team in the SEC has been clearly identified. The Mississippi State Bulldogs have lost four games in a row and are already 0-2 in conference play. To make matters worse for Jeff Lebby's team, the Bulldogs had one of the easiest schedules in the SEC at the start of the season. This team has no juice. I don't know if this team is going to even win four games this season.

Week 5 gave the people what they wanted, but we can only wait to see what Week 6 will have in store.