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SEC standings ordered by Offensive EPA per play after Week 7: LSU lapping field

Georgia and Alabama remain atop the actual SEC standings, but what if we ordered them by the strength and efficiency of the offenses in the conference?

By Cody Williams

LSU v Missouri
LSU v Missouri / Michael Hickey/GettyImages
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Through seven weeks of the 2023 college football season, the SEC is starting to take a much clearer shape. In the East, it would be a shock to see any team other than the reigning back-to-back national champion Georgia Bulldogs to emerge from that division, even after the Brock Bowers injury. In the West, Alabama has moved to 4-0 in conference play, albeit not without some close calls. The LSU game looms large as the Tigers are just one game behind the Crimson Tide.

There are still five or six games left on the schedule for these SEC teams, though, meaning that a lot can change in the SEC standings over the next month and a half before the end of the regular season. Which two teams will meet up in Atlanta is still up for debate at this point.

Having said that, let's take a look at the SEC standings, not just in the traditional sense, but also ordering the teams in the conference by their offensive performance (more on how we'll do that in a bit).

SEC standings after Week 7

SEC East standings

  1. Georgia Bulldogs (4-0, 7-0)
  2. Florida Gators (3-1, 5-2)
  3. Missouri Tigers (2-1, 6-1)
  4. Tennessee Volunteers (2-1, 5-1)
  5. Kentucky Wildcats (2-2, 5-2)
  6. South Carolina Gamecocks (1-3, 2-4)
  7. Vanderbilt Commodores (0-4, 2-6)

SEC West standings

  1. Alabama Crimson Tide (4-0, 6-1)
  2. LSU Tigers (4-1, 5-2)
  3. Ole Miss Rebels (2-1, 5-1)
  4. Texas A&M Aggies (2-2, 4-3)
  5. Auburn Tigers (0-3, 3-3)
  6. Mississippi State Bulldogs (0-3, 3-3)
  7. Arkansas Razorbacks (0-4, 2-5)

That's what the conference and overall records shake out like after seven weeks and three or four conference games for every team (five for LSU). However, what if we ordered the standings, instead, by Offensive EPA per play?

For those unaware, EPA (Expected Points Added) is an advanced metric that measures the efficiency and productivity of an offense in relation to situation and the expectation for a given play, player or what have you. As such, EPA per play on offense measures, essentially, how successful a team is in giving itself scoring opportunities (and converting) on a per-play basis.

With that, let's take a look at how the SEC standings shake out when ordered by this metric, essentially enlightening fans on the best offenses in the conference. All stats are via CFB Graphs.

SEC East standings ordered by Offensive EPA per play after Week 7

  1. Missouri Tigers (0.218)
  2. Georgia Bulldogs (0.186)
  3. Tennessee Volunteers (0.145)
  4. South Carolina Gamecocks (0.143)
  5. Florida Gators (0.092)
  6. Kentucky Wildcats (0.074)
  7. Vanderbilt Commodores (-0.015)

Coming into the season, the belief was that Missouri would be bolstered by their defense if they were to have success. Instead, a Brady Cook breakout season has led to the Tigers being the best offense in the SEC East this season. Georgia, despite perceived issues, ranks second in the division in EPA per play -- though that's only good enough for 40th in the country.

Perhaps the biggest takeaway is the precipitous dropoff for Tennessee offensively as they've transitioned from Hendon Hooker, who led one of the best offenses in college football a year ago, to Joe Milton. The Vols are just 55th in the country in EPA per play offensively, far from a high bar.

Poor, poor Vanderbilt, though. There are only 31 of the 133 FBS teams who have a negative Offensive EPA per play -- the Commodores are, unfortunately, one of them.

SEC West standings ordered by Offensive EPA per play after Week 7

  1. LSU Tigers (0.437)
  2. Ole Miss Rebels (0.343)
  3. Texas A&M Aggies (0.115)
  4. Mississippi State Bulldogs (0.078)
  5. Arkansas Razorbacks (0.055)
  6. Auburn Tigers (0.055)
  7. Alabama Crimson Tide (0.016)

Seeing Alabama at the bottom of the SEC West standings is, frankly, unheard of. However, the efficiency metrics back up the concerns that we've seen about the Jalen Milroe led unit for the Crimson Tide. They're 95th in the country in EPA per rush, 86th in EPA per pass and 96th overall in the metric this season. Whether it's the QB, the poor offensive line play, or a combination of factors, it's been tough in Tuscaloosa.

Conversely, the Tide's biggest divisional rival outside of Auburn -- at least over the past couple of decades -- in LSU has been lights-out offensively with the fourth-best offense in college football according to EPA. The Tigers issue has been that their offense has almost wholly been offset by a defense that ranks as the third-worst in the country by EPA.

SEC standings ordered by Offensive EPA per play after Week 7

  1. LSU Tigers (0.437)
  2. Ole Miss Rebels (0.343)
  3. Missouri Tigers (0.218)
  4. Georgia Bulldogs (0.186)
  5. Tennessee Volunteers (0.145)
  6. South Carolina Gamecocks (0.143)
  7. Texas A&M Aggies (0.115)
  8. Florida Gators (0.092)
  9. Mississippi State Bulldogs (0.078)
  10. Kentucky Wildcats (0.074)
  11. Arkansas Razorbacks (0.055)
  12. Auburn Tigers (0.055)
  13. Alabama Crimson Tide (0.016)
  14. Vanderbilt Commodores (-0.015)

Alabama being in the cellar of the entire SEC standings just barely above Vanderbilt is truly a sight to behold. However, these numbers ultimately back up the eye test. There have not been many great offenses in the conference from what we've seen to this point, though the defenses have remained stout. One has to wonder, though, how that might affect the conference when it comes to bowl games and, specifically, the College Football Playoff.

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