Stats tell a simple story behind Blue Jays cellar-dwelling start

As the young Major League Baseball season continues to unfold, the Toronto Blue Jays find themselves in a familiar position: underperforming with their bats. The reason for their disappointing start can be traced back to a series of underwhelming performances, including being no-hit and one-hit against the Houston Astros early last week.

At the heart of Toronto's woes is a team batting average of just .193, which ranks 29th in the majors. They also struggle dearly, hitting with runners in scoring position (RISP), with an average of .197 (28th). This inability to capitalize on scoring opportunities has had a direct impact on their offensive output, with the team managing to score only 3.6 runs per game, the 23rd lowest in the league. These numbers are far from what is expected from a lineup that has shown potential to be among the league's most formidable.

The pitching staff, known as the backbone of this team and which has carried the offense at times, has similarly struggled. The team's ERA is 5.46, which ranks them 27th in the MLB. The starting rotation, in particular, has been a significant concern, posting a combined ERA of 6.40, the 28th-worst mark in the league. This is extraordinarily worrisome as this star-studded rotation was figured to be one of the best in baseball. 

Based on these numbers, the fact that they've won four games is quite remarkable. As we all know, in baseball, success is often built on the foundation of consistent hitting and strong pitching, two areas where the Blue Jays have faltered. While the season is still young, and there is time for the team to turn things around, these early struggles highlight significant areas of concern.

Why are the Blue Jays struggling so badly to start 2024?

On the hitting side of things, this could be happening for a number of reasons. Firstly, the Blue Jays did not really improve upon their lineup from last year, which struggled with the exact same issues.

After being linked to Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, Jorge Soler, and Cody Bellinger, The front office replaced Matt Chapman and Brandon Belt with Justin Turner and Isiah Kiner Falefa, two players who unfortunately do not have the power to change a team's fortune (although Turner has been off to quite an alright start, by the Jays’ standards). The second reason may be due to a lack of the hitter's discipline at the plate; they have been chasing pitches, trying to force hits, which is when their star players Vladimir Guerrero Jr and Bo Bichette always hit their worst. 

The reason their pitching, particularly their starters, has been so poor is less clear. Going into the season, this time had a question mark at their number five rotation spot and have gotten little out of their guy Bowden Francis (12.96 ERA in 8.1 innings). Maybe this could change with the return of Alek Manoah on the horizon, but who really knows, as he has had his fair share of struggles during his (never-ending) rehab.

The team's four elite starters, Bassitt, Gausman, Kikuchi, and Berrios, just simply haven't given this team the quality of innings that the fans have grown accustomed to – Jose Berrios has been the only consistent one through his first two starts, posting a 2.25 ERA in 12 innings pitched. The bullpen has been dealing with injuries, as Jordan Romano and Erik Swanson are still on the 10-day IL and are yet to make their season debuts. 

As the Blue Jays look to reverse their fortunes, the team's management, coaches, and players must address these glaring issues head-on. With the talent on the roster, a turnaround is within reach, but it will take a collective and truly valiant effort from the top of this organization to the bottom in order to achieve what baseball fans know this team is capable of.