Which surprise NBA contender is for real?

Are the Philadelphia 76ers championship contenders?

The Philadelphia 76ers were supposed to take a step back in 2023-24. They brought in Nick Nurse as their head coach, enjoyed a disgruntled James Harden through training camp, and then traded the 2022-23 assists-per-game leader to the Clippers for a pu pu platter of role players. The thought, early in the season, was that for the Sixers to become contenders again, they were going to need time to swing a massive trade for another star. 

However, the Sixers, whether by design or pure luck, already had another star lying in wait — Tyrese Maxey. Maxey’s rapid ascent has been paramount to the Sixers’ first-half excellence. He’s averaging 25.8 points, 6.7 assists, and only 1.6 turnovers on a 52.8 percent effective field goal percentage, and his Offensive Box Plus-Minus of 4.5 ranks 18th in the league. His leap from an intriguing young player to a legitimate All-Star should have him in the lead for the Most Improved Player award. 

Maxey rising to the challenge and mostly replicating Harden’s 2022-23 offensive impact has allowed the Sixers to maximize Joel Embiid’s historic 2023-24 season. Embiid is the reigning MVP but has gone up another level this season. He’s averaging 36.1 points, 11.6 rebounds, and 5.9 assists and playing by far the best basketball of his storied career. He’s the first name in the MVP conversation, and the only impediment to him making it two straight is he has already missed 10 games this season. 

The combination of Embiid’s utter dominance and Maxey’s lightning-quick offense has led the Sixers to the league’s second-best net rating (plus-8.3), fifth-ranked offense (120.6), and fifth-ranked defense (112.3). The Sixers and the Celtics are the only teams in the top five in offensive and defensive rating, and they have the contracts and assets to improve their roster. 

From a purely statistical standpoint, the Sixers are a stone-cold contender. They have elite underlying metrics on both sides of the ball, an MVP playing at the peak of his powers, an All-Star side-kick, depth, and a proven head coach in Nick Nurse. The only nits to pick from their early season production is they have fattened up their net rating against the dregs of the league. 

The Sixers have an average point differential of plus-8.3 points per game, but without their three 40-plus point wins, that figure drops to plus-5.3. Great teams blow bad teams out, and every team’s net rating drops when you remove their most impressive wins. Still, the Sixers’ net rating is slightly inflated by their ability to absolutely destroy the Wizards, Pistons, and Hornets. 

For as great as the Sixers have been, the looming question is if Joel Embiid can actually perform up to his standard in the postseason. Since 2017-18, the Sixers and Embiid have made the playoffs each season. During those regular seasons, Embiid has averaged 32.3 minutes, 27.8 points, 11.5 rebounds, and 3.5 assists on an effective field goal percentage of 53.4 percent. In the playoffs, the only stat that hasn’t dropped is minutes played, with Embiid averaging 34.6 minutes, 24.0 points, 10.9 rebounds, and 2.8 assists per game on 49.1 percent effective field goal percentage. 

The Sixers are contenders. Outside of marginal depth additions, there is nothing they don’t have. Your confidence in them winning the title comes down to your belief in Joel Embiid finally showing up in the playoffs. 

Verdict: Inner-circle contenders