Tennessee must avoid falling into Sam Pittman’s BBQ pit vs. those feisty Razorbacks
By John Buhler
You smell that? No, I am not talking about the barbecue, but I would be lying to you if I didn't say it smelled good. I am talking about the epitome of a trap game. The Tennessee Volunteers enter Week 6 with a perfect 4-0 record coming off a bye and a great showing vs. Oklahoma in Norman before that. While Tennessee looks every bit the part of a College Football Playoff, the Vols had better watch out!
Yessir! The Vols are playing a night game at Arkansas on Saturday night. While there is no signature game of the week in the primetime window, this one will have to do, pig. Arkansas may be 3-2 on the season, but the Hogs' two losses to Oklahoma State and rival Texas A&M were by the slimmest of margins. This Arkansas team is flawed, but they can score a ton of points in Bobby Petrino's offense.
While I don't think Arkansas has any business of being a College Football Playoff team this year, they are much better than I thought they were. Given the nature of the expanded SEC conference, I would venture to guess that Arkansas will upset somebody significant en route to being bowl-eligible. Tennesee is coming off a bye week, and perpetual SEC nemesis Florida awaits them in two weeks.
A loss to Arkansas would not wreck Tennessee's season, but would put them behind the eight ball.
Tennessee may not be able to afford a road loss to Arkansas this weekend
Ask yourself this: How many teams in the SEC could finish the year at 9-3 and still make the playoff? How sure are you that Tennessee is one of them? Right now, I would say that Alabama, Georgia and Texas could have the combination of schedule and resume to get in at 9-3 as one of the last two at-large teams. If Tennessee loses to Arkansas, then the Vols have to beat either Alabama or Georgia.
At the start of the year, I projected Tennessee would go 11-1 with a win over Alabama, but a loss to Georgia. That mark would firmly have them in the playoff, possibly as a contender to come out of the SEC. However, 10-2 could be more likely, given how strong Alabama looks under new head coach Kalen DeBoer. Georgia may not be that good, but I view all three teams in question as playoff-caliber.
Should Tennessee lose to Arkansas, will the Vols have an opportunity to make up for it? While the North Carolina State and Oklahoma wins look impressive now, that could change in a few weeks. Outside of Alabama and Georgia, the Vols' hardest game post-Arkansas is home vs. either Florida or Kentucky. You have to win both of those and split the Alabama and Georgia games to get in at 10-2.
One thing that has become very clear in the SEC this year is not all schedules are created equal. Georgia's is brutal. Alabama's is quite difficult. Texas' is comparable to Tennessee's in all honesty. Should it come down to who's 10-2 is better between Tennessee and Texas, I am afraid that the Longhorns would get the nod over the Volunteers because of Texas' blowout win over Michigan.
Arkansas is the third-most losable game on Tennessee's schedule, but they cannot afford to drop it.