Can Texas A&M unlock path to College Football Playoff with win over Missouri?

After dropping a close one at home in Week 1 to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, the Texas A&M Aggies have quietly rattled off four wins in a row. They have a new head coach in their former defensive coordinator from yesteryear Mike Elko taking over for his former boss Jimbo Fisher. While Marcel Reed continues to play with confidence at quarterback, the Aggies have a huge test this weekend.

They will be hosting their former Big 12 foe and fellow 2012 SEC entrant Missouri on Saturday. The Tigers are 4-0, but have not looked the part of a playoff team in their last two games vs. Boston College and definitely vs. Vanderbilt two weeks ago. Although they are also well-coached, I have serious concerns about the Tigers' ability to win shootouts and play from behind offensively.

Given that neither team has the hardest schedule imaginable, a loss potentially puts Mizzou's chances of making the College Football Playoff on life support. A second loss on the season this early pretty much throws dirt on the Aggies' chances of getting in. But with that said, would a home win over the Tigers be enough to clear a pathway for the Aggies to potentially crash the CFP party?

Let's unpack what would need to happen for Texas A&M to get a top-12 seed into the playoff now.

How Texas A&M can make the College Football Playoff after Missouri win

Well, let's make one thing clear. If Texas wins out, they will make the College Football Playoff, possibly as the No. 1 seed. At 11-1, and more importantly 8-0 in SEC play, they would get to Atlanta. Even with a defeat to someone like Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee or even Texas in a rematch, an 11-2 SEC runner-up is getting in no matter what. Unfortunately, I don't see Texas A&M doing better than 10-2.

Even though the reignited Lone Star Showdown will be in College Station this year, I have a hard time seeing A&M beating Texas. That was a loss I forecasted at the start of the season. Until something drastically changes between now and then, I am going to view that highly anticipated rivalry game the same way. Simply put, Texas A&M would have to win its remaining five games after a Missouri victory.

Assuming a Missouri, Texas A&M would need to win games over Mississippi State, LSU, South Carolina, New Mexico State and Auburn. If you did the math, assuming book-ended losses to Notre Dame and Texas, Texas A&M would need to rattle off 10 wins in a row during the heart of the regular season to have a serious shot at getting in. They really need to beat LSU to get another quality win.

Not to say that Texas A&M's playoff chances are non-existent, but the Aggies are more of a pretender than a contender right now. However, that all can change with a decisive home victory over Missouri. While the Tigers may not be able to overcome that loss, a win over Mizzou would help erase the consequences of the Week 1 non-conference loss to Notre Dame. A 10 or 11-win A&M team gets in.

The only other scenario A&M gets in is with only a loss to LSU or Missouri, but an upset over Texas.