Does C.J. Baxter’s injury lower the Texas Longhorns’ ceiling in 2024?

Football injuries are the worst, especially during training camp. With NFL preseason underway this week and college football returning in all of its glory at the end of the month, Texas will need to find a new answer at running back. C.J. Baxter suffered a season-ending knee injury in practice on Tuesday. He was slated to be the team's RB1 after having played in 13 games last season as a true freshman.

Last fall saw Baxter split carries with Jonathon Brooks in the team's first year without Bijan Robinson. With Brooks now playing for the Carolina Panthers, the expectation was that Baxter would be splitting carries with Jaydon Blue this season. Quintrevion Wisner also played a bunch last year and Jerrick Gibson is expected to make some sort of impact as a true freshman. Still, this is a big loss for the Longhorns.

So what I want to do today is to unpack how much of an impact will be felt by Baxter's extended absence this college football season. Texas was one of the four most likely teams to win the expanded College Football Playoff this season, but is that still the case? Texas has a Heisman Trophy candidate at quarterback in Quinn Ewers, as well as an outstanding head coach in Steve Sarkisian.

Let's first take a look at Texas' running back depth chart to get a better sense of the situation here.

C.J. Baxter out for season: Texas Longhorns running back depth chart

Here is what the Texas running back depth chart looked like heading into camp before Baxter's injury.

• C.J. Baxter
• Jaydon Blue
• Quintrevion Wisner
• Jerrick Gibson
• Christian Clark

Baxter being out of the equation certainly puts a much greater emphasis on Blue to carry this rushing attack. Wisner goes from being a rotational guy to being a focal point of the attack. Freshman like Gibson and Christian Clark will now have greater opportunities to make an impact on this team. To me, I think the injury to Baxter can be overcome, but it may hurt Texas' ceiling to go win a national title.

As it was the case with Notre Dame losing offensive tackle Charles Jagusah for the season, the injury to Baxter does knock Texas down a peg in terms of overall championship viability. Because Ewers himself is injury-prone, as well as Texas going from the Big 12 to the SEC this season, the Longhorns go from a playoff lock to a tier below that. To me, they are right there with Ole Miss and Penn State.

As of last night, I firmly had Texas as a playoff lock and the SEC runner-up to Georgia. Now, I am not so sure. They were a team that I thought had a 12-0 to 10-2 range like a Georgia, an Ohio State or an Oregon, but they might be one more win shifted back. Texas is probably closer to a 9-3 to 11-1 team than they were a week ago. They play a brutal first schedule in SEC play. That league is unforgiving...

Texas is now my fourth most likely team to win it all, firmly behind Georgia, Ohio State and Oregon.