The American Express 2024 picks and best bets for PGA Tour golf this week

We are really getting back into the full swing of things in golf with the 2024 PGA Tour season heading to its next stop, this time heading back to the mainland, PGA West in La Quinta, CA to be specific, for this year's edition of The American Express.

Grayson Murray, fresh off his big playoff win at the Sony Open, will be back in the field this week at The American Express, but the defending champion, Jon Rahm, obviously will not be. Having said that, PGA West will have one of its best fields in years this week with Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, Sungjae Im, Tom Kim, Justin Thomas and several other major stars teeing it up.

So where do we go this week with our PGA Tour expert picks and best bets? This is a tough week given that the players will play three courses from Thursday to Saturday before concluding at the Stadium Course on Sunday. We also have three different courses with two birdie-fest type of tracks and then an approach-accentuating Stadium Course.

Last week was filled with a number of close calls and one win with our best bets. We're still trying to get our footing but let's find it this week with our PGA Tour expert picks and best bets for The American Express 2024.

Note: All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook unless otherwise noted. Odds will be updated when made available. For more betting picks and advice, check out BetSided.

Golf betting record in 2024 through Sony Open: 3-9-0, -2.48 Units (0-4 on outrights and longshots | -2.38 Units at Sony Open) | One and Done Total for 2024: $991,375 (J.T. Poston at the Sony, $300,875)

PGA Tour expert picks for The American Express: Winner, Top 10 and One and Done

Top 10 pick for The American Express: J.T. Poston (+320)

I picked J.T. Poston to win outrigh last week and, though he fell short of that, he surged into contention with a career-low 61 on Sunday and finished solo sixth. He now has three Top 6 finishes in his last four starts while gaining more than 0.5 strokes on approach and 1.11 strokes putting. The way he's hitting greens right now and rolling rocks is a perfect blend to attack PGA West's three courses and I love these odds for him to finish Top 10 after finishing T6 in this event a year ago.

Outright Winner pick for The American Express 2024 (0.5 Units): Sungjae Im (+2000)

There are three reasons for hitching my wagon to Sungjae Im as the outright pick at PGA West this week. For one, he has a phenomenal history at this event with five straight Top 20s and four of those at T12 or better. Secondly, he's playing well right now, gaining 0.76 strokes on approach and 0.84 strokes putting over his last two tournaments, which is what I'm looking for at this tournament. But finally, this is a big year for Sungjae with a lot to prove and a real need to fully break out. Winning at a place where he's enjoyed great success would fit that narrative to a tee.

One and Done pick for The American Express: Sungjae Im

This might seem like a relatively aggressive play for Im, but there aren't many places looking ahead where I'm already super-keen on using him for a One and Done pick. So this is once again a situation that simply means I'm confident enough to pick him to win outrigh, then I'm also confident enough to have him on the board in One and Done.

The American Express picks: More best bets for PGA Tour

Taylor Montgomery to finish Top 20 at The American Express (+210)

After a hot start last season, Taylor Montgomery kind of fell off of the map in the second half of the year. But we've seen him bouncing back lately, including three Top 20 finishes in his last four starts. He's gaining 0.69 strokes on approach over his last 20 rounds and, as one of the best putters on Tour, is also gaining 1.05 strokes on the greens in that span. After finishing T13 last week, he now comes to a spot where he recorded a Top 5 last year. I like for him to show up nicely again.

Patton Kizzire to finish Top 30 at The American Express (+260, DraftKings)

Really taking a pretty longshot dart on Patton Kizzire here, but I like a good bit of what I'm seeing. He's gaining more than 1.50 strokes tee-to-green over his last 16 rounds, a stretch that includes two Top 20 finishes and no finish worse than T44. On top of that, he's played extremely well in The American Express in recent years with a T11 and T22 finish in his last two starts here. If he can even be average as a putter, a Top 30 at these odds is incredibly juicy.

Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele and Sungjae Im to finish Top 20 Parlay (+402)

Yes, I'm aware that the Top 20 parlays have not exactly been profitable for these best bets. But this feels like one that makes a ton of a sense and is a good way to get some of the best players in the field on the card. Over the collective last 10 starts at The American Express between this trio, only one has not resulted in a Top 20. More importantly, the form is shaping up for these players at the start of 2024 with their approach play and solid putting. They could all very well contend, so putting them together for a Top 20 each makes a lot of sense in my eyes.

Longshot bet to win the Sony Open (0.1 Units): Tom Hoge (+12000)

Tom Hoge is always a bit of a risky proposition when it comes to playing him, but I love him as a longshot play this week. His approach play is spiking, gaining 0.91 strokes over his last 16 rounds, but his putting has been just barely below average over that span too. He's finished second and T6 at The American Express in his last four starts here, so at these odds, he's worthy of a sprinkle.