The Fifth Down: In the NFL, perception shapes illusion, not reality

In the NFL perception creates illusion, not reality

Perception is reality… or rather, it shapes reality.  

No matter the exact phrasing, the consensus is that a person’s perception does influence their reality. On a grander scale, the way a powerful group perceives the world can shape reality for everyone else. Every journalism student knows that through agenda-setting and gate-keeping, mass media professionals are tasked with prioritizing what’s important to the public while congruently deciding what should be important to the public. 

In the NFL, perception shapes illusions far more often than it shapes reality. Self-ascribed analysts with varying degrees of expertise and experience decide which players to anoint and which ones to cast out into the shadows. And while everyone would like to pretend that the NFL spotlight is meritocratic, the hard truth is that the lights shine brighter on highly-touted athletes in big markets.

Skewed perception is essential in myth-making — physical prowess is often too highly prized, whereas diligent practice and film study are qualities that are easy to ignore. The players who are truly great are the ones who can read, predict, anticipate, and execute consistently.

Sadly, the reason Fred Taylor still hasn’t been inducted into the NFL Hall of Fame has less to do with his performance and more to do with his former team, the Jacksonville Jaguars. Fourteen of the 16 players ranked ahead of Taylor on the NFL's all-time rushing list are already in the Hall of Fame, and the two who are not — Frank Gore (third all-time with 16,000 yards) and Adrian Peterson (fifth with 14,918) — are not yet eligible. There are only three players in NFL history who averaged 4.6 yards or better with at least 2,500 carries: Fred Taylor, Adrian Peterson and Barry Sanders. 

Taylor fell short in terms of team accolades, but there’s only so much a running back can do. Despite the team around him, Taylor’s ability to find gaps and cut on a dime caused nightmares for defenders. Ray Lewis called Taylor an elite player when discussing Taylor's Hall of Fame candidacy in 2018. In 2007, Troy Polamalu said Taylor was probably the best back he had ever seen in the NFL. Yet, Taylor was only selected for one Pro Bowl. 

Not far from Jacksonville, another small market stifles great players. Lavonte David was selected by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the second round of the 2012 NFL Draft. David’s draft class included linebackers Luke Kuechly and Bobby Wagner, both of whom found early recognition on successful teams with exciting quarterbacks. Meanwhile, David remained overlooked.

David finally got the national recognition he deserved after he shut down tight end Travis Kelce (also known as Travis Swift) in Super Bowl LV, a feat few defenders have managed to accomplish. But stellar pass coverage was nothing new for David. According to PFF, David was the best linebacker in coverage from 2017 to 2019 — ahead of Kuechly and Wagner.

Comparing David and Wagner statistically illustrates just how similar the two linebackers have been, except David has a clear penchant for forcing fumbles. His 27 forced fumbles far outnumbers Wagner, who has just six forced fumbles in his career.

Mike Evans, David’s teammate, has suffered the same injustices.

Regardless of organizational instability and erratic quarterback play, Evans has been the model of consistency. He has nine consecutive 1000-yard seasons to begin his career — most in NFL history. Now, he’s aiming to break Jerry Rice’s record of 11 consecutive 1000-yard seasons. After three games, Evans has already compiled 17 catches for 297 yards and three touchdowns.

Still, Mike Evans is often overlooked in any discussion regarding the league’s top wide receivers.

Reaching for imaginary "ceilings" in NFL analysis

In the media, perception amplifies mediocre players who make flashy plays and ignores transformational athletes who quietly do their jobs. Look no further than the 2021 NFL Draft to find textbook examples of such malpractice.

The 2021 quarterback class was one of imaginary “ceilings.” The media decided how good a quarterback could become by looking at which quarterbacks could run and captivate audiences with magical throws.

Leading up to the draft, nobody had BYU quarterback Zach Wilson pegged as a top prospect. That is, until, Wilson caught everyone’s eye with a dazzling throw at his pro day. Television analysts went into a frenzy and dubbed Wilson as the next Patrick Mahomes. The New York Jets fell for the hype and selected Wilson second overall, becoming the first team in the Common Draft Era to select two quarterbacks in the top three overall picks in a four-year span.

Next up, the San Francisco 49ers selected Trey Lance, who had barely played any meaningful snaps of football in his career. Then, the Chicago Bears selected Justin Fields, who had glaring flaws in his processing and decision-making abilities. Both quarterbacks had athletic ability, however, and that meant they had a high ceiling.

Alabama’s Mac Jones had one of the best quarterbacking seasons in college football history, but that didn’t matter because he lacked mobility, and that meant he had a low ceiling. It’s almost as if everyone forgot that Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and Drew Brees spent the last two decades dissecting defenses without using their legs.

Mac Jones had a successful rookie season and guided his team to the postseason. Despite his sophomore slump, is there any doubt that the Jets, 49ers, or Bears would have been better off with Jones at the helm?

If you read Steve Young’s wisdom on quarterbacking in last week’s column, it should come as no surprise that Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, and Justin Fields have been massive disappointments.

Perhaps even more disappointing, however, is the media’s perception of these quarterbacks. Some observers perceived Fields’ struggles as a result of poor coaching, poor blocking, and poor catching. Basically, it was everyone’s fault except his own.

“Pundits, including myself, took to blame the rest of the cast and not the beloved [Bears’] QB1,” NBC’s Ryan Taylor wrote last week. 

Heading into the 2023 season, many television analysts were overly optimistic about Justin Fields. During the offseason, the Bears upgraded their entire offense — from play-caller to offensive line and running backs — and traded for a legitimate receiving threat in D.J. Moore. Fields now has everything that supposedly held him back in prior seasons. 

ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky even predicted Fields would have an MVP-caliber season. Still, Orlovsky refuses to pin the blame on Fields following Chicago’s blowout loss in Week 3. Instead, Orlovsky deferred blame onto the play-calling, the offensive line, and three dropped passes.

Perhaps some analysts don’t want to admit they were wrong, but how many offensive linemen must be dragged through the proverbial mud before everyone accepts that Fields is getting sacked because he can’t process coverages and holds onto the ball too long?

Make no mistake about it: sacks are a quarterback statistic.

A lot of people credit Tom Brady’s success to his great offensive lines, but the truth is that Brady made his offensive linemen look better than they might have been. If you doubt that statement, just look at how Brady’s teams fared with him and without him.

Fields has been sacked 104 times in his NFL career. He’s taken 79 sacks with at least four seconds to throw, 16 more than any other player since 2021. That means over three-quarters of Fields’ sacks have come with ample time in the pocket.

Sure, there are times that offensive linemen miss blocks or receivers drop passes, but they are far outnumbered by the number of times Fields has been responsible for a negative play or a missed read.

National narratives have excused poor outings by great quarterbacks as well. The 2020 Kansas City Chiefs had a massive meltdown in Super Bowl LV. It seemed inexplicable for phenom Patrick Mahomes to have such a bad game, and it was all too easy to pin the blame on an injured offensive line. Mahomes was never held responsible for his own shortcomings in that game.

While his offensive line didn’t play well, neither did Mahomes. On several occasions, he abandoned a clean pocket and generated his own pressure. He chose to scramble out of the pocket and search for a deep shot instead of stepping up in the pocket and making a throw on time and in rhythm. Hall of Fame quarterback Kurt Warner broke down many of these errors, but it was largely ignored by the national media.

“[Mahomes] moved unnecessarily," NFL Films producer and analyst Greg Cosell said on the Ross Tucker Podcast. “I thought that he was anticipating and perceiving pressure even when it was not there, and he missed about three or four passes, including what would have been a touchdown to Tyreek Hill, because he moved when he did not have to.”

Patrick Mahomes had a bad game. Admitting that doesn’t condemn him to being a bad quarterback. Viewing the game from an unbiased and honest perspective is the only way to truly understand what we see every Sunday.

Perception isn’t reality, but it does shape how we see reality, and that is powerful enough to make some NFL careers and break others. 

With that in mind, let’s explore how perceptions and storylines shaped Week 4 power rankings.

NFL Power Rankings: Week 4

Preseason Record Prediction: 12-5

The Giants tested quarterback Brock Purdy by sending pressure early and often. On a short week and without receiver Brandon Aiyuk, Purdy looked a bit rattled by the pressure. As the game wore on, Purdy settled in and made several big-time throws.

The Niners have kept Purdy fairly protected, ranking right in the middle of the pack in sacks allowed per dropback (6.1 percent), despite facing the highest blitz percentage (43.4 percent) in the league. Teams are likely to continue trying to heat up Purdy with the blitz, despite his success against it. But whenever Purdy struggles, Nick Bosa and Fred Warner are there to make sure the opposing quarterback does as well.

Three of the next five games are at home before a perfectly-placed Week 9 bye. Everything seems to be golden in San Francisco.

Preseason Record Prediction: 9-8

After opening the season with two wins on the road, the Dolphins treated their fans to a show in their home opener. Their 70 points were the most in an NFL game since 1966. Their 726 yards were the most in an NFL game since 1951. And the Dolphins accomplished all that without Jaylen Waddle.

The Dolphins are now responsible for the five fastest individual speeds recorded on a given play this season, according to Next Gen Stats. On top of that, Mike McDaniel has been putting defenses in a pretzel with motions, gap scheme runs, zone runs, bootlegs, and everything in between. Tua Tagovailoa was only pressured on 7.7 percent of his dropbacks. Keeping him upright could be the key to Miami’s success this season.

The Dolphins won’t score like this every week. After all, they were just held to 24 points in Week 2, which now seems like a heroic performance by the New England Patriots. Still, if they consistently manage to score half as many points as they did on Sunday, this team could be lifting a Lombardi Trophy in February.

Ultimately, does this game say more about the Dolphins or the Broncos?

Preseason Record Prediction: 12-5

If you panicked when the Chiefs lost to the Lions in Week 1, then You Need To Calm Down. Maybe there was some rust, but since then, they’ve seemed to Shake It Off. Mahomes is becoming the Anti-Hero for fans of other AFC teams — he’s fun to watch, but they’d prefer if he didn’t succeed. This was the type of game Kansas City needed — a clearly inferior opponent they could just beat up on and let the Sparks Fly. It must have been tough for Bears fans to watch their offense fail to even score Fifteen points, especially considering the Bears had a chance to draft Mahomes. You could almost hear their fans singing “You Belong With Me.” It’ll be another Cruel Summer for every other NFL team if the Chiefs get on a roll again.

Preseason Record Prediction: 11-6

After the Week 1 debacle, the Bills have done well in all three phases. They didn’t face the toughest challenge in their Week 3 game against the Commanders, but the Bills' offensive and defensive lines both dominated their matchups. More importantly, Josh Allen took care of the football and slid when he scrambled. When they play clean football, the Bills are hard to beat.

Preseason Record Prediction: 11-6

Defenses have been defending the Eagles offense by dropping everyone back into coverage and forcing Jalen Hurts to drive down the field methodically. It’s an issue the Chiefs offense had to deal with after their explosive seasons as well, and Philadelphia will have to figure out how to adjust and get their talented skill position players open. Hurts has been pretty efficient, but this offense is a far cry from the juggernaut it was last year.

On the other hand, the defensive line is as ferocious as ever, and Philadelphia now holds the lead for the division title. The Eagles are on their way to being the first NFC East team to win the division in consecutive seasons since 2004.

Preseason Record Prediction: 11-6

Last week, I asked if Dallas could look as dominant against a competitive opponent, but they didn’t even need a competitive opponent to prove that consistency is still an issue.

Losing Trevon Diggs for the season hurts, and the breakdowns in the first half may be a result of that. This secondary will have to build up chemistry with their remaining pieces and find a scheme that works for them.

More importantly, the Cowboys need to play smarter. Every year, sloppy football ends up spelling demise for Dallas. They seemed to be doing better this season after only having 11 penalties in their first two games combined. In the 28-16 loss to the Cardinals, the Cowboys logged 13 enforced penalties for a total of 107 yards.

Preseason Record Prediction: 11-6

The good news is that the entire AFC North is a mess right now. The bad news? The Ravens are dealing with their same old problems. Injuries are thinning the depth chart, and Lamar Jackson has almost as many rushing yards (193) as all of Baltimore’s running backs combined (249).

The Ravens had plenty of opportunities to beat the Colts, most notably the two overtime possessions that began near midfield. If they can stay healthy and clean up their mental errors, the division is there for the taking.

Preseason Record Prediction: 9-8

The Lions' offense has now scored 20 or more points in 12 consecutive games dating back to last season. The passing game continues to thrive, but the ground attack needs to improve. The Lions are averaging just 3.6 yards per rush attempt (25th in the NFL). On defense, rookie safety Brian Branch looks like he could be a star in the making.

Preseason Record Prediction: 10-7

Kenneth Walker is proving he’s still an explosive back despite his injury last season, and Seattle’s fans are proving they can still get loud enough to induce countless false start penalties. The defensive injuries are getting a bit concerning, especially with Tariq Woolen, Jamal Adams, and Tre Brown. Fortunately, the Seahawks will have a chance to rest and get healthy with their Week 5 bye week.

Preseason Record Prediction: 8-9

Brett Favre never had a 17-point fourth quarter comeback in Green Bay. After three weeks of being a starter, Jordan Love already has one. The Packers had significant injuries this week, but they trailed 17-0 in the fourth quarter largely due to a lot of sloppy offensive football. Regardless, they overcame dropped passes and offensive penalties with timely defensive stops and scoring drives in crunch time.

Preseason Record Prediction: 12-5

From 1990 through 2022, just 31 of 270 teams to start 0-2 reached the playoffs (11.5 percent). Only 16 of those teams won a division title (5.9 percent). Since 1990, just four of 158 (2.5 percent) that started 0-3 ultimately reached the playoffs, and none won a Super Bowl. 

The 2023 Cincinnati Bengals finally took the first step to righting the ship with a must-win game in Week 3. Still, 1-2 isn’t a great place to be, especially when the franchise quarterback is dealing with a calf injury that is clearly affecting the offense. Cincinnati’s defense stepped up and applied pressure on Matthew Stafford. They’ll have to do that more often, and against better teams, until Joe Burrow and the offense can hit their stride.

Preseason Record Prediction: 9-8

Deshaun Watson looked like the old Watson. He completed 82 percent of his passes in what marked his best performance as a Cleveland Brown. Doing that against Tennessee is one thing, but doing it against the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers is another. The next two games will reveal a lot about who the 2023 Browns really are.

Preseason Record Prediction: 9-8

Leading by four points late in the game, Brandon Staley chose to go for it on fourth-and-1 near his own end zone. The Chargers didn’t convert, but the defense saved the team from three consecutive losses. They may have even saved Brandon Staley's job. Still, the pass defense was awful, and the dismal rushing attack is proving just how valuable Austin Ekeler is to this offense. Losing Mike Williams for the season will undoubtedly hurt the Chargers, but it’s good to see that Keenan Allen is still capable of dominant performances.

Preseason Record Prediction: 11-6

Jacksonville is converting just 29.7 percent of its third down attempts through three games. The Jaguars were only five-for-13 on third down against Houston, with three of those conversions coming with the game already out of hand. That mark actually raised their third-down average for the season. The Jaguars have to be better, especially considering all of the weapons they’ve stockpiled on offense.

Preseason Record Prediction: 10-7

The Patriots have won 15 consecutive games against the Jets, which ties the Kansas City Chiefs for the longest active win streak against a single opponent. That will be the only easy game in New England’s unrelenting opening month. They’ll be tested once again in a Week 4 matchup against the Cowboys. The Patriots offense has a long way to go, but their defense is a lot better than it looks right now. In fact, it could be one of the best in the league — after all, they are the only team to hold Miami under 30 points so far. At least the offensive line finally managed to keep Mac Jones clean and sack-free.

Swapping out Jakobi Meyers for JuJu Smith-Schuster is looking like it was a mistake, but rookies like Christian Gonzalez and Keion White inspire confidence in a brighter future. Expect Bill Belichick to get the Patriots marching in the right direction.

Preseason Record Prediction: 10-7

The Saints offensive line has been a strength of the team for such a long time that it’s almost hard to believe they’re struggling. The Saints have allowed 12 sacks already, although not all of those are the fault of the linemen. Much like any other team with offensive line woes, it’s hard to accomplish anything on offense when the quarterback is in constant danger of getting hurt. That’s exactly what happened to the Saints, and Jameis Winston doesn’t have a great track record of making good decisions under duress.

Preseason Record Prediction: 10-7

After the Week 1 disaster, Pittsburgh seems to be turning things around. Najee Harris finally got the ground game moving as he churned out 65 of the Steelers’ 105 rushing yards. That allowed the play-action pass to work more effectively and let Kenny Pickett get in a rhythm. Now the Steelers just have to keep it going.

Preseason Record Prediction: 7-10

The Rams looked impressive in their first two games, but the Bengals knocked them back down. After taking just one sack in the first two games, Matthew Stafford was sacked six times and hit 10 times. The unstoppable connection between Stafford and rookie receiver Puka Nacua finally came to a halt as the Rams failed to get into the end zone until the final two minutes of the game.

Preseason Record Prediction: 5-12

The magical start to Tampa Bay’s season is over. Mike Evans, despite his continued consistency and dominance, let a would-be touchdown bounce off his hands. Baker Mayfield ended his streak of pass attempts without a touchdown. The offensive line looked much like the line from last year that couldn’t protect Tom Brady. The defense is still stout — the front seven can stonewall opponents in short yardage situations, and the secondary still has playmakers that can pluck the ball away. This team could really use a stronger running game. Then again, who couldn’t?

Preseason Record Prediction: 7-10

Atlanta's offense has struggled to find consistency and rhythm. The Falcons have just two first-half touchdowns in their three games. Remarkably, they’ve won two of those games, but it’s not a sustainable way to play, especially for a team that’s built to run the ball.

Preseason Record Prediction: 9-8

After two games of the offense turning the ball over, the defense took its turn to be the reason for a loss. The Vikings allowed 41 completions out of 48 pass attempts. Of the seven incompletions, the Vikings defensive backs batted away only three. Last year was magical for the Vikings, but this division will belong to someone else this season.

Preseason Record Prediction: 5-12

The Colts are showing the same impressive grit they showed two years ago when Jonathan Taylor took the league by storm. Now, it’s looking like the Colts barely miss Taylor at all. Rookie QB Anthony Richardson has been impressive so far, as the Colts have been competitive in all three of their games. Now, with back-to-back road wins, the Colts are building back the confidence they lost last year. 

Preseason Record Prediction: 6-11

The Giants offense couldn’t get anything going without left tackle Andrew Thomas and running back Saquon Barkley. No surprises there — except for maybe the Giants, who overpaid for Daniel Jones this offseason.

Preseason Record Prediction: 4-13

Head coach DeMeco Ryans has turned this team around in an impressive fashion. C.J. Stroud looks like the best rookie quarterback of this draft class, and he’s showing incremental improvements every week. The Texans picked up their first win with a true team effort — Stroud and Tank Dell connected on offense, the defense forced timely turnovers, and the special teams scored a touchdown on a blocked field goal. Houston still has a mountain to climb, but this team is finally ascending.

Preseason Record Prediction: 9-8

Remember when the Jets had Sam Darnold? Or Geno Smith? Or even Mike White, who was down in Miami throwing a touchdown on Sunday? The Jets would love to have any of those guys back right now, because Zach Wilson does not belong on the field. He may not even belong on an NFL roster. His incompetence is wasting a talented roster full of players who deserve better — and they know it. Robert Saleh needs to figure something out at quarterback because these players are upset, and they’re about to explode.

Preseason Record Prediction: 7-10

Sam Howell either held onto the ball too long or threw it to the wrong team. He ended with nine sacks and four interceptions. That’s not going to win many games. 

Preseason Record Prediction: 3-14

First-year offensive coordinator Drew Pretzing has shown a lot of creativity in his game plans. In their upset win over Dallas, Pretzing neutralized the Dallas pass rush with read-option plays. Joshua Dobbs, James Conner, and Ronald Moore all made plays when they needed to. 

Preseason Record Prediction: 5-12

The Titans are not built to succeed without a lead, but it’s hard to get a lead with an average of 3.3 third-down conversions per game (24th in the NFL). Giving up over 4 sacks a game doesn’t help, and you can add Ryan Tannehill to the list of quarterbacks who hold onto the ball too long.

Preseason Record Prediction: 10-7

Talent isn’t the problem. The Broncos have a culture problem, and it’s rooted deep enough that even Sean Payton hasn’t been able to fix it yet. It’s lingered around for years now, and even Von Miller has hinted at it. Perhaps we’ll dive into that soon if things keep going the way they’re going in Denver. 

Preseason Record Prediction: 7-10

The Raiders force-fed the ball to Josh Jacobs last season. This season, they’re attempting to force the ball to their receivers. Jimmy Garoppolo now has six interceptions, which is the most in the NFL. 

Preseason Record Prediction: 5-12

It’s hard to win with a rookie quarterback. It’s harder to accomplish anything without an offensive line that can pass protect and open holes in the running game, while also having a rookie quarterback. If you add on eight false start penalties, you’re almost guaranteed to lose.

Preseason Record Prediction: 5-12

The summer is over and it’s time for the Bears to start going into hibernation — just like they do every year.