The Fifth Down: Current Chiefs dynasty started before Patrick Mahomes

Every few decades, the stars align for an NFL franchise. Suddenly, a team that had been relegated to mediocrity is propelled to enact a reign of terror over the rest of the league. It’s a rare occurrence because of how many pieces have to fall in the right place, all at the same time. Usually, teams need to find a generational quarterback and an innovative head coach who can develop that quarterback. Then, they’ll also need a front office that’s capable of constructing a roster full of culture-builders.

Franchises that assemble those pieces often become regular contenders for Super Bowls, but only the most fateful of those teams become dynasties. There was no shortage of dynastic dominance early in NFL history.

Steelers, Raiders, Commanders enjoyed early days of NFL dynasties

Almost every great NFL dynasty came during those early days. Historians have mentioned the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers, whose successes came prior to the Super Bowl era when there were only 12 teams in the league. More notable are the Pittsburgh Steelers of the 1970s, the Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers of the 1980s and 1990s, head coach Joe Gibbs’ Washington teams that won three Super Bowls with three different quarterbacks, and Al Davis’ Raiders teams that won three Super Bowls and 11 division titles in a 17-year span.

In those days, before the advent of the salary cap and free agency, any franchise could keep its stars in town as long as the team’s owner agreed to increase the payroll as necessary. This led to great dynasties throughout the early years of the Super Bowl era.

Consider the Pittsburgh Steelers dynasty that reigned during the 1970s. From 1972 to 1979, Pittsburgh won seven division titles and made eight consecutive postseason appearances. The Steelers won four Super Bowl titles in six years (1974, 1975, 1978, 1979), becoming the first and only team in NFL history to do so.

Pittsburgh’s dominance can largely be attributed to their all-star roster, which was comprised of nine future Hall of Fame players, along with Hall of Fame head coach Chuck Noll. On offense, Pittsburgh had quarterback Terry Bradshaw, running back Franco Harris, center Mike Webster, and wide receivers John Stallworth and Lynn Swann. The famed Steel Curtain defense boasted defensive end Joe Greene, cornerback Mel Blount, and linebackers Jack Ham and Jack Lambert.

All nine of those Hall of Famers played together for eight consecutive seasons from 1974 to 1981.

NFL players spent decades fighting for unrestricted free agency, and in 1989, the NFL Players Association sued the league. After years of antitrust litigation, team owners agreed to institute free agency in exchange for a salary cap to maintain a competitive balance. Free agency began in 1993, and the salary cap came to fruition in 1994.

Football changed forever. Gone were the days when franchises could stockpile talent for years. Winning teams could no longer stay intact as they once did. Instead came an era of parity that would transform the league.

The NFL salary cap era traded dynasties for parity

The effects of free agency immediately became clear. San Francisco, who had become the first team to win five titles, never won another after 1994. The 1997 Dallas Cowboys, just two years removed from winning three Super Bowls in a four-year span, had a losing record and wouldn’t win another playoff game until 2009.

For franchises that won Super Bowls by spending big and accumulating talent, there were only two choices: change or perish.

Remaining at the pinnacle of a league rigged to bring everyone to the middle is no easy task. The restrictive salary cap, free agency, draft, and schedule all contribute to the continuous trek to mediocrity. The journey from loser to winner is not as complicated as it once was. With a system designed to drag every team to the middle, teams go from last to first and first to last every season. Consistency is difficult to maintain, but defying parity entirely takes much more.

Most damaging of all is the payroll pressure that comes with free agency. Now, teams would be lucky to fit two Hall of Fame-caliber players under the new salary cap restrictions. As talent-hungry and overeager bottom-feeders offer armored trucks of cash to All-Pro players, star-studded teams can only retain so much of their own talent. When a superstar player at one position hits the jackpot, something must be sacrificed at another position. All-Pro talent can only crowd together for so long before the team becomes handicapped by the salary cap. Teams that perform well will face a tougher schedule the following season, too.

Since the creation of the salary cap, a few franchises have had a successful run that could be considered as being on the cusp of a dynasty. It is never sustained. Teams have to constantly rebuild their roster and ultimately face a sudden decline, failing to claim their place as a dynasty to be remembered forever in the annals of football.

By every reasonable measure, Peyton Manning’s Colts and Ben Roethlisberger’s Steelers should be celebrated for their historic performances: both achieved consistent regular season success and topped it off with a championship or two. Yet, they pale in comparison to what the New England Patriots accomplished. What sets Bill Belichick and Tom Brady apart from every other dynasty is that their longevity and dominance came in the salary cap era. There was a constant revolving door at every position around Brady. 

Only quarterbacks John Elway and Tom Brady have led their teams to consecutive Super Bowl victories in the salary cap era. Both Russell Wilson and Patrick Mahomes lost their attempted encores to Brady, who has buried potential dynasties multiple times. Brady is the only quarterback who made consecutive Super Bowl appearances on two separate occasions, as well as the only quarterback to earn three consecutive appearances — a feat that only two teams accomplished even prior to the salary cap.

Tom Brady's NFL retirement created an AFC power vacuum

Now, with Tom Brady retiring from tormenting the league, there is a power vacuum — especially in the AFC.

Of all the contenders hoping to become the NFL’s next dynasty, the Cincinnati Bengals and Buffalo Bills have been treated as threats in recent years. Yet, only one team has a realistic chance to take the vacated throne.

With a Super Bowl victory this season, the Kansas City Chiefs could cement their place in the annals of football history as a dynasty.

Although most people will point to Patrick Mahomes as the reason for Kansas City’s success, their ascension truly began much earlier. It was the acquisition of head coach Andy Reid in 2013 that propelled the Chiefs to relevancy.

“Players win games, and coaches lose them,” Bill Belichick said. “And if coaches don’t give the players a good opportunity [and] give them a chance where they can have a fair fight and can win on their ability, then great players can’t overcome bad coaching.”

From 2013 to 2017, the Chiefs had a winning record every year and posted double-digit wins in three of those seasons. Kansas City had four postseason appearances and two division titles during that stretch, despite playing in the same division as Peyton Manning’s Denver Broncos for three of those seasons. The Chiefs finished those five seasons with a 53-27 record and four postseason appearances. That stability earned quarterback Alex Smith his first Pro Bowl nod in 2013, at age 29, followed by two more Pro Bowls in 2016 and 2017.

Kansas City Chiefs record with Andy Reid

• 2013: 11-5 [2nd in AFC West, 6th scoring offense]
• 2014: 9-7 [2nd in AFC West, 16th scoring offense]
• 2015: 11-5 [2nd in AFC West, 9th scoring offense]
• 2016: 12-4 [1st in AFC West, 13th scoring offense]
• 2017: 10-6 [1st in AFC West, 6th scoring offense]
• Total: 53-27 [four postseason appearances]

Patrick Mahomes lucked out compared to Josh Allen and Joe Burrow

Teams need talent and leadership in place to nurture, develop, and support a young quarterback early in their career. That’s the only way an NFL quarterback can reach his full potential, and it’s the only way a team can become a dynasty.

“I always think, for so many young players, … ‘Who’s gonna turn you into something? Who’s gonna develop you? Who’s going to take you under their wing?’” Tom Brady said on the Let’s Go! Podcast. “Coach Belichick and I developed an amazing relationship from the moment I was drafted. We spent a lot of time together, he started to begin to teach me what really football was all about, how to study defenses when I started to play, certainly. We’d have weekly meetings, sometimes once, sometimes twice. I couldn’t imagine a better teacher to say, ‘Hey, this is how you’re going to play quarterback in the NFL, and this is the nuances of the game.’  … There’s no way I have the success that I’ve had personally without him.”

The truth of the matter is that Patrick Mahomes landed in the perfect spot for a developing quarterback, while Joe Burrow and Josh Allen did not. 

The Bengals had a dreadful 15-33 record in the three seasons prior to Joe Burrow taking over the starting role. In his rookie season, Cincinnati had a barebones offense that was ill-equipped to protect a young quarterback. Burrow lasted just 10 games behind a struggling offensive line before suffering a season-ending ACL injury.

The Bills fared a bit better with a 24-24 record in their three seasons prior to the arrival of Josh Allen. Still, their offense lacked the necessary talent to nurture a mistake-prone rookie quarterback.

Mahomes became the Chiefs’ starting quarterback in 2018. In the three prior seasons, Kansas City had a 33-15 record, won two division titles, and made three consecutive postseason appearances.

When Mahomes was drafted, he had more pure talent than Alex Smith, but he was also more raw. Unlike the Bengals or the Bills, the Chiefs had no urgency to immediately push their underdeveloped quarterback into the line of fire. By 2017, Kansas City was consistently one of the NFL’s better teams, and quarterback Alex Smith had just led the Chiefs to their first postseason victory since the 1993 season when Joe Montana was their quarterback.

Alex Smith spurred the genesis of the modern-day Chiefs

Many NFL fans believe that Kansas City’s offensive reign began under Mahomes in 2018, but they’re wrong. It began a year earlier in 2017 with Alex Smith at quarterback. 

Through the first five weeks of the 2017 regular season, the Chiefs looked like an emerging powerhouse. They had won 26 of their last 30 regular season games and were leading the league in scoring with 32.8 points per game. 

During their 5-0 start, the Chiefs defeated quality opponents. The Chiefs opened the season against the Super Bowl champion New England Patriots on their banner night. Kansas City won that game 42-27. The following week, the Chiefs defeated the eventual Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles. Then they beat the Chargers. And then Washington. In Week 5, Kansas City recorded another 42-point game with a 42-34 win against the Houston Texans.

Alex Smith was having the best season of his career, too. Against the Patriots, Smith threw for 368 yards and four touchdowns, good for a 148.6 quarterback rating. Against Houston, Smith completed passes to 10 different receivers and finished with 324 yards, three touchdowns, and a 130.2 rating. Smith’s best performance came in a 38-31 loss against the New York Jets. In that game, Smith threw for 366 yards and four touchdowns with no interceptions. He also broke several tackles on a highlight-reel 70-yard run.

Smith became the first quarterback in NFL history to complete over 70 percent of his passes and throw at least 10 touchdowns with no interceptions through the first five weeks of a season. Through the first eight games of the season, Smith had compiled 2,181 yards, 16 touchdowns, and no interceptions.

Kansas City faltered during the middle of the season, losing six of seven games between Week 6 and Week 12. Still, it was not because of Smith’s level of play. During the 2017 season, Smith led all quarterbacks in passer rating (131.4), adjusted completion percentage (56.5), and deep pass yards (1,344), according to PFF.

If you still aren’t convinced that the Chiefs offense was thriving prior to the arrival of Patrick Mahomes, consider the two following stat lines. One of them is Patrick Mahomes during the 2019 regular season, his first Super Bowl-winning season. The other is from Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith in 2017, the last season before Mahomes became the starter.

Patrick Mahomes, 2019

14 starts: 4,031 yards, 26 TD, 5 INT, 65.9 completion percentage, 105.3 rating, 176 rushing yards.

Alex Smith, 2017

15 starts: 4,042 yards, 26 TD, 5 INT, 67.5 completion percentage, 104.7 rating, 355 rushing yards.

Andy Reid, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill helped create magical 2018 season

When Mahomes took over, the Chiefs offense was already equipped with Hall of Fame talent like tight end Travis Kelce and wide receiver Tyreek Hill, as well as budding stars like running back Kareem Hunt. Then, receiver Sammy Watkins was added to the mix. Combined with Andy Reid’s play calling, which always put defenses in a pretzel, the 2018 Chiefs offense was a dream scenario for a quarterback like Mahomes.

Other young quarterbacks took over bottom-feeder teams that were desperately searching for a savior. 

Perhaps that’s why Josh Allen has yet to develop past his tendency to have head-scratching turnovers, or why Joe Burrow is being forced to carry his team out of another early-season hole. 

They didn’t have the privilege of sitting behind an experienced veteran for a year, nor did they have a pre-built and well-oiled offense to step into. Most importantly, they didn’t have a future Hall of Fame head coach guiding them to easy completions and frequent victories.

Mahomes had those luxuries, and that’s why Mahomes is the one on the cusp of leading the NFL’s next dynasty in the salary cap era.

NFL Power Rankings: Week 10

Preseason Record Prediction: 11-6
Week 5 Record Prediction: 13-4

After nine punishing weeks of play, only the Eagles are 8-1 in the NFL. It’s a run reminiscent of last season as the Eagles powered through against a familiar divisional foe: the Cowboys. Jalen Hurts wasn’t going to let Dallas win, so he braved a direct hit to his injured knee to score two passing touchdowns and one rushing touchdown with 207 passing yards on the night. Describing it as a “gritty win”, Hurts’ sacrificial gains were nearly undone by Philadelphia’s defense when they surrendered 56 yards in penalties on Dallas’ final offensive drive.

The injuries are concerning for the Eagles, especially on the defensive end of the ball. On top of that, the team has yet to play a complete game in all three phases. Each game seems sloppy in one way or another. Perhaps that makes it even more impressive that Philadelphia has managed to secure eight wins despite the sloppy play.

Hurts scored his seventh rushing touchdown of the season, which set an Eagles record with 33 career rushing touchdowns for a quarterback. Nakobe Dean is out with a foot injury, but not to fret — he and Hurts will have time to rest up over the Week 10 bye week before facing the Chiefs in a Super Bowl encore.

Preseason Record Prediction: 11-6
Week 5 Record Prediction: 12-5

The NFL loves an underdog story, which is why the debut of Ravens running back Keaton Mitchell is reminiscent of a superhero’s origin story. Against the Seahawks, Mitchell was a superhero, rushing for 138 yards and a touchdown on nine carries. 

But even without Mitchell’s arrival, the 7-2 Ravens are a formidable force in the AFC. Their 37-3 defeat of Seatlte marks the second time in three weeks that they’ve displaced a divisional first-place team. They entered the game with a league-leading 31 sacks, accruing four more sacks before halftime. Gus Edwards ran for two touchdowns, and Odell Beckham Jr. landed his first one since his Super Bowl-winning season. But it’s not just the offense that deserves credit for their success. Tied for an AFC-best record, Baltimore held an opponent to nine points or fewer for the fourth time this season. And Lamar Jackson may be NFC kryptonite: he’s 18-1 against NFC teams as a starter. 

Aside from an easy win against a tanking Cardinals team, the Ravens followed their impressive dominance with the Lions by unseating another division leader in the Seahawks. Even though Jackson sat out in the fourth quarter, this is by no means one of the NFL’s easier teams to defeat. The Ravens could be a playoff favorite with a real shot at winning it all, and their upcoming game versus Cleveland could get them closer to that goal.

Preseason Record Prediction: 12-5
Week 5 Record Prediction: 13-4

After a surprise Week 8 upset versus the Broncos, the Chiefs bounced back in Week 9 against the Dolphins, powering through to a 21-14 victory in Frankfurt, Germany. This keeps the Chiefs’ international streak alive — they’ve never lost overseas, which includes a 2015 win in London and a 2019 win in Mexico City — and it means the Chiefs haven’t lost two consecutive games since 2021.

The 7-2 Chiefs are, once again, an NFL powerhouse, with opponents struggling to keep up with their rapid scoring. Even though Patrick Mahomes was held scoreless in the second half, two Mahomes touchdowns in the first half buoyed the Chiefs through a second-half struggle.  

Kansas City can comfortably roll into their Week 10 bye week as they prepare to face the Eagles in Week 11, which will be a more competitive match than previous weeks. The Chiefs can hope that this Kelce Bowl will end like the last one.

Preseason Record Prediction: 9-8
Week 5 Record Prediction: 11-6

The 6-2 Lions are coming off a Week 9 bye after trouncing the Raiders in Week 8, and they’re heading into Week 10 in the best possible shape. The entire roster was available to practice on Tuesday, a positive sign for a team that has weaponized its depth to garner one of the NFL’s best records in 2023. 

The Lions’ comeback tale continues as Detroit takes on the Chargers with David Montgomery, which should remedy their recent red zone failures. Additionally, the Lions will welcome back Frank Ragnow, Jonah Jackson, and Halapoulivaati Vaitai, all of which should bolster their run game against Los Angeles.

Preseason Record Prediction: 12-5
Week 5 Record Prediction: 9-8

After a rocky start to the season, the Bengals are coming off one of their biggest wins of the year. Unfortunately, that win came at a high price. 

Joe Burrow’s impressive performance proves he’s healed from the injury that hampered the team in the early weeks, but now, the rest of his teammates are now at risk on the Bengals’ largest injury report of the season. Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and six other Bengals players showed up on the injury report as they sat out of Wednesday practice. 

The Bengals will take on the surging Houston Texans this Sunday, but if they can manage to replicate some of their Week 9 success, they’ll fare well. It’ll be difficult though: Higgins is coming off a season-high 110 yards through eight catches, while Chase caught four passes for 41 yards. But touchdowns to Irv Smith Jr. and Drew Sample reiterate that Burrow can spread the ball around, even if Higgins is a favorite target. Higgins landed about a third of Burrow’s 348 passing yards, so even if the Bengals are bitten by the injury bug, they still have a shot against Houston.

Preseason Record Prediction: 12-5
Week 5 Record Prediction: 14-3

Oh, how the mighty have fallen. The formerly 5-0 49ers have been in a slump as of late: they’ve lost their last three consecutive games to the Browns, the Vikings, and the Bengals. Even after a bye week, they still reign supreme as the No. 1 team in the NFC West, but the 5-3 Seahawks are a close second. 

An upcoming matchup against the 6-2 Jaguars presents a challenge to San Francisco, and the Jaguars are equally rested after their own Week 9 bye week. The Jaguars also have the momentum of winning their last three matchups ruling in their favor, so it’ll have to be a prove-it win against one of the AFC’s strongest competitors so far.

Preseason Record Prediction: 9-8
Week 5 Record Prediction: 11-6

The NFL’s No. 1 offense couldn’t get it done in Frankfurt, Germany, as the Chiefs did just enough to conquer the mighty Dolphins. 

After a scoreless first half, Miami put up 14 in the third quarter to combat Kansas City’s 21 points through the first half, but ultimately, their unlikely comeback fell apart when Tua Tagovailoa missed a fourth-down snap.

Miami’s defense has stepped up its game, especially with the return of Jalen Ramsey, but the offense has been struggling. Tua seems to get finicky when his first read is taken away. Ultimately, their success may depend on whether Mike McDaniel can scheme up easy reads for Tua. That isn’t a great recipe for success, however, as it’s impossible for every play to work the way it was intended to work when it was drawn up.

Against the Chiefs, Miami’s offense looked more discombobulated than usual: they experienced a first-half shutout for the first time since Week 2 of 2021. This was exemplified by Tyreek Hill’s second-quarter fumble that resulted in a Chiefs touchdown right before the half ended. Tagovailoa finished the game with a season-low 193 passing yards. 

Mistakes like that cost what was still a close game near the end, but the Dolphins will have to demonstrate the coordination they’ve displayed all year when they go up against the Raiders after their Week 10 bye.

Preseason Record Prediction: 11-6
Week 5 Record Prediction: 11-6

The 6-2 Jaguars are 4-0 in away games this year, a streak they continued with their fifth straight victory on an opponent’s home turf in Week 8. In a rainy Pittsburgh day at Acrisure Stadium, the Jaguars managed to flaunt their victory by chanting “we’re 6-2!” and stealing Terrible Towels.

As the Jaguars enjoy their bye week, they can reflect on everything they’ve done right so far in their Doug Pederson-led turnaround. The Trevor Lawrence-Travis Etienne is pairing off, with Lawrence throwing for 292 yards in their last game, which includes an Etienne connection on a 56-yard touchdown. In addition to 70 receiving yards and Lawrence’s passing touchdown, Etienne also rushed for 79 yards on 24 carries. With Evan Engram’s 88 receiving yards and Calvin Ridley’s 83 receiving yards, the Jaguars boast plenty of playmakers to keep their momentum going through the weeklong break.  

Jacksonville is now 13-4 over its last 17 regular-season games, including an unbeaten October. That includes five wins spanning four cities and two continents, proving that Jacksonville can win anywhere, anytime, anyhow. Now, they’ll need to win at home against a once-unbeatable 49ers squad.

Preseason Record Prediction: 11-6
Week 5 Record Prediction: 12-5

All three of the Cowboys’ losses this season have been in away games, and Dallas wasn’t able to change that in their Week 9 loss in Philadelphia. After a 17-14 edge leading into halftime, the Cowboys fell behind in the second half as they faltered in a last-second comeback. Despite being gifted 56 yards due to Eagles penalties, Dak Prescott came short in the fourth quarter after an 11-yard sack at the hands of Josh Sweat. Prescott connected with CeeDee Lamb as the clock ran out, but Lamb was unable to reach the endzone, thus losing by five points. 

The connection between Prescott and Lamb was still impressive, and it was nearly enough to give the Cowboys the game. Prescott ended the game with 374 yards and three passing touchdowns, with 191 of those yards coming from passes to CeeDee Lamb. 

The Cowboys believed they played well enough to win, and to be fair, the outcome likely would have been different if it wasn’t against the NFL’s sole 8-1 team. Even though Dallas Goedert was injured in Week 9, a flimsy matchup against the Giants bodes well for the Cowboys’ confidence.

Preseason Record Prediction: 10-7
Week 5 Record Prediction: 11-6

Coming off a narrow win versus the Browns, the 5-2 Seahawks quickly became 5-3 after facing a daunting Ravens roster. Head coach Pete Carroll lamented that his Seattle team couldn’t tackle Baltimore in the second half, but by halftime, the Ravens already had 17 points on the board.

It was an uncharacteristic loss for Seattle — in fact, they haven’t experienced a loss this lopsided since the Rams defeated them 42-7 in 2017. Jaxon Smith-Njigba got a decent 63 yards on six receptions, but it wasn’t enough to compensate for the Seahawks’ meager 28 rushing yards on 15 attempts.  

Expect the Seahawks to bounce back against the Commanders — even if they don’t win, they’re practically guaranteed to play better than this.

Preseason Record Prediction: 11-6
Week 5 Record Prediction: 13-4

Losing to one of the NFL’s better teams may be consolation for some, but for a team that’s been picked as a perennial playoff favorite, it’s a disappointment for Buffalo. Now at 5-4, the Bills are now “in the hunt” after falling out of playoff contention for now. It’s still early, but that’s still not a good sign. Dalton Kincaid and Stefon Diggs offer bright spots to the Bills’ offense, but taunting penalties aside, Josh Allen has been unimpressive in his tendency to turn the ball over. A second-quarter interception shut down the Bills’ momentum for that drive, which could have made the difference in their six-point loss. 

Sean McDermott attributed the loss to a team that was “too inconsistent” — and if the Bills want to get back into the playoff conversation, they’ll have to push Allen to rack up yards without giving away the ball. 

Josh Allen now has thrown an interception in five consecutive games, and he’s on pace to once again lead the NFL in turnovers. For a quarterback that has more turnovers than any other player since he entered the league, this trend has to be concerning for Bills Mafia. Allen will need to fix his tendency to make head-scratching turnovers if the Bills want to make the playoffs — especially considering how difficult their schedule is for the remainder of the season.

Preseason Record Prediction: 9-8
Week 5 Record Prediction: 7-10

A shutout win bodes well for the 5-3 Cleveland Browns, who fielded an impressive performance from Deshaun Watson after weeks of concern surrounding a right shoulder injury. Watson proved he was in better form, completing 19 of 30 passes for 219 yards and two touchdowns. Much of the traffic went to Amari Cooper, who hauled in five receptions for a whopping 139 yards and a touchdown.

Watson, who had not played a full game since Sept. 24, led the Browns to their first shutout win since 2007. Still, the victory says less about the Browns’ competence and more about the dismal state of Arizona: they only managed 58 total yards on the day. Even if beating up on the 1-8 Cardinals is easy, the Browns should take the confidence boost and the crucial warm-up for Watson as they head to a nightmare Week 10 matchup in Baltimore.  

Preseason Record Prediction: 4-13
Week 5 Record Prediction: 6-11

What a day for CJ Stroud. The rookie quarterback set an NFL rookie record with 470 passing yards. He also threw five touchdowns with no interceptions, including a game-winning touchdown with six seconds left on the clock. Stroud became the sixth player in NFL history to have more than 450 passing yards, five touchdowns, and no interceptions, according to ESPN Stats & Information. He is now seventh in the league in passing yards (2,270). The 4-4 Texans are still trailing Jacksonville in the division, but their turnaround is astounding.

Preseason Record Prediction: 10-7
Week 5 Record Prediction: 7-10

The Steelers are two games above .500, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t major concerns for the rest of their season. Pittsburgh ranks 26th in the league at 4.7 yards per play, and they’re only the 34th team since 1933 to be outgained in each of its first eight game. Of those 34 teams, Pittsburgh is the first team to have a winning record after eight games. That won’t last if the Steelers can’t fix their offensive woes. George Pickens’ poor attitude and sportsmanship certainly doesn’t help.

Preseason Record Prediction: 10-7
Week 5 Record Prediction: 8-9

Taysom HIll’s historic game was one of the major headlines for this Saints win, with Hill catching one touchdown and throwing another. This made Hill the first NFL player since New York Giants Hall of Famer Frank Gifford to score ten or more times as a passer (11), runner (26), and receiver (10). 

While Hill won’t punch a Hall of Fame ticket on dynamic scores alone, it does help the 5-4 Saints remain atop the NFC South with one win ahead of Atlanta’s Falcons. 

The other major headline in this game was defensive back Paulson Adebo’s three astounding turnovers, forcing two interceptions and a fumble that gave the Saints a demonstrable advantage. 

While the Bears had the edge in total yards and time of possession, five turnovers put the Saints in a winning position. They’ll need it when they face their bitter Minneapolis rival up north in Week 10. 

Preseason Record Prediction: 9-8
Week 5 Record Prediction: 11-6

It seems like the 4-4 Chargers shouldn’t be in second place in their division, but that’s just how bad things are in the AFC West, the division the Raiders and Broncos also call home. But the Chargers, who still have a chance for a Wild Card spot, will take any win they can get, and a win against the struggling Jets certainly counts. 

The high score doesn’t necessarily reflect the back-and-forth slog between these two teams: there were 15 punts in this game, and eight of them were kicked by Los Angeles. Still, a punt return for a touchdown and Austin Ekeler’s two rushing touchdowns gave the Chargers a comfortable lead when New York’s offense couldn’t execute a single touchdown. 

The Chargers will face a much more challenging test when facing the Lions in Week 10, but if there’s any hope of a win there, it’s in the hands of their versatile yet undervalued running back, Ekeler.

Preseason Record Prediction: 9-8
Week 5 Record Prediction: 9-8

After Joshua Dobbs was hurled into the spotlight in Arizona, he was thrust again into a challenging situation when the Cardinals traded him to the Vikings on Oct. 31. This time, Dobbs was taking over after Kirk Cousins endured a season-ending injury, and Dobbs became a mid-season beacon that could buoy the 4-4 Vikings and keep their playoff hopes alive. 

Dobbs delivered in a high-scoring 31-28 win over the Falcons, with the 28-year-old quarterback having mere days to pick up an entirely new playbook. Dobbs thrived under the pressure in a three-touchdown performance, throwing for 158 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for 66 yards and another score. 

The Vikings face a more difficult test against the Saints in Week 10, who rank above the Falcons as the No. 1 team in the NFC South. But that’s just another week Dobbs has with the playbook — and if he can replicate his Week 9 success, the Vikings have a fighting chance.

Preseason Record Prediction: 5-12
Week 5 Record Prediction: 8-9

Will Levis may have stunned with four touchdowns in his Week 8 NFL debut versus the Falcons, but his 16-20 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers was a sobering reality check. Following a four-touchdown career opener isn’t easy, and while Levis still managed to complete 22 of 39 passes for 262 yards, Levis’ game wasn’t clean enough to give the Titans the edge. An end-of-game interception sealed Tennessee’s fate, but there are still positives as the Titans prepare to face the Buccaneers in Week 10. 

But Levis is a preferable option with Ryan Tannehill still sidelined with a high ankle sprain, and with the Titans in a 3-5 hole, Levis appears to have the capability of pulling them out — if he can replicate that first-game explosiveness.

Preseason Record Prediction: 7-10
Week 5 Record Prediction: 7-10

Heading into halftime, the Commanders-Patriots match in Week 9 looked as if it was going New England’s way. The Patriots led 14-10 heading into the tunnel, fresh off a red-zone interception thrown by Sam Howell. But Washington turned things around in the second half, with their defense holding New England to a field goal for the remainder of the game. On Howell’s end, he was able to put up another 10 points, which was enough to give the Commanders the win. 

The Commanders still have the misfortune of being in one of the NFL’s most competitive divisions this year: their 4-5 record is third behind the 8-1 Eagles and the 5-3 Cowboys, meaning any playoff possibility is going to have to be hard-won through a competitive record over the rest of the season. A Week 10 matchup against the humiliated Seahawks likely won’t help their case, but at least their win against the Patriots showed signs of life on both sides of the Commanders' ball.

Preseason Record Prediction: 7-10
Week 5 Record Prediction: 4-13

The Raiders had a dominant performance, the players looked free and reinvigorated, and the postgame celebration looked like a party. After failing to score 21 points under Josh McDaniels in the first eight games, Las Vegas put up 24 points by halftime.

But don’t buy into the hype too much. This isn’t the first time that a team has looked unstoppable immediately after the firing of a coach, and it’s not like the Giants were a tough opponent. This team is currently in the honeymoon phase with interim head coach Antonio Pierce. And while the Compton-native coach has a heartwarming story, the true test of his coaching will come in December and January, when the excitement of change wears off.

Preseason Record Prediction: 5-12
Week 5 Record Prediction: 5-12

There’s nothing like going against the NFL’s worst team to correct a three-game skid, and that’s exactly what Indianapolis did when they ventured to Carolina this past weekend. Although the Colts defense allowed at least 37 points in each of its last three games, cornerback Kenny Moore turned their luck around with two pick-sixes. The Colts finished the day with 27 points on the board to rival Carolina’s measly 13 points. 

The Colts scored 20 of their 27 points in an explosive second quarter, which included one of Moore’s returns and a Gardner Minshew pass to Johnathan Taylor for a score. 

The Colts can hope to carry this momentum into their international matchup versus the Patriots in Week 10 as the team heads to Frankfurt, Germany for the city’s second game in two weeks. The Patriots will be seeking their own redemption amid calls to fire head coach Bill Belichick, and if the Colts’ luck continues, they can take advantage of the chaos.

Preseason Record Prediction: 7-10
Week 5 Record Prediction: 7-10

Before Week 9, the Falcons were tied with the Saints with a 4-4 record, but a heartbreaking loss to the Vikings rendered Atlanta to a 4-5 second-place divisional ranking. 

Unlike many of the lopsided losses this week, this was a close high-scoring affair: the Falcons only lost by a field goal. But considering all of the Vikings’ injuries in Week 9, it’s a game they could have won, especially after swapping out Desmond Ridder for Taylor Heinicke in the second half. Ridder endured five sacks and a fumble, marking his tenth turnover in the past five games. 

With Heincike under center, the Falcons scored 17 points in the second half, proving that Atlanta had the means to win this game by making the change at quarterback. Heinicke should get another chance to prove himself in a go-ahead win against the Cardinals in Week 10.

Preseason Record Prediction: 8-9
Week 5 Record Prediction: 10-7

The Packers snapped a four-game slide in their 20-3 rout against an injured Rams unit, but the 3-5 Packers should welcome any win they can get. 

Jordan Love’s 20 completions on 26 attempts was efficient, with Love scoring one of Green Bay’s two touchdowns in the win. While 228 passing yards isn’t as much as some other quarterbacks in the league, it was leagues ahead of opposing quarterback Brett Rypien’s mere 130 passing yards. 

Aside from rookie tight end Luke Musgrave scoring his first NFL touchdown, one of the biggest winners of the day was Aaron Jones, who rushed for 73 yards and a touchdown on 20 attempts. 

A win versus the Steelers in Week 10 won’t be as easy, but the Packers have proven they have the mettle to make it happen.

Preseason Record Prediction: 5-12
Week 5 Record Prediction: 9-8

Nobody expected the Buccaneers to be good this season. Their 3-1 start had people questioning whether they’d shock the NFL world, but they’ve come crashing down since then. Tampa Bay had chances to put this game away, and some questionable clock management unfortunately led to a heartbreaking last-second loss. The good news is that Mike Evans, the most underrated receiver in the NFL, is still producing. He now has 594 receiving yards, good for 15th in the league. That puts him on pace for a tenth consecutive 1,000 yard season.

Preseason Record Prediction: 9-8
Week 5 Record Prediction: 4-13

The Jets defense continues to make opposing quarterbacks look average. Unfortunately for the Jets, Zach Wilson always proves that he can look even worse than any opposing quarterback. The Jets lead the NFL with 5.88 punts per game, and they added to that total with another seven punts on Monday night. It’s miraculous that the Chargers didn’t score more than they did, but then again, they didn’t need to.

Preseason Record Prediction: 10-7
Week 5 Record Prediction: 7-10

The Broncos went into their bye week on a high note by ending their embarrassing streak of losses against the Chiefs. Still, this team maintains a losing record. Russell Wilson has definitely looked better under the guidance of Sean Payton. He now has 16 touchdowns to just four interceptions and is fifth in the league in passer rating (101.7). Still, the team is still 26th in the league in point differential (-54). That’s far from what they expected when they traded three players, three first-round draft picks, and three second-round draft picks to acquire Wilson and Payton.

Preseason Record Prediction: 7-10
Week 5 Record Prediction: 9-8

Starting the year off 2-2 wasn’t so bad for the Rams, but losing four of their last five games has taken them from bad to worse. Now, the struggling 3-6 Rams are third in their division, and a 3-20 loss to the Packers likely dashes any postseason hope. 

Without Matthew Stafford at the helm, the Rams relied on Brett Rypien, who completed 13 of 28 passes for 130 yards, zero touchdowns, an interception, and a fumble. Sean McVay admitted that there “weren’t a lot of positives to take away” from the rainy rout, where the Rams found they could neither run nor pass. 

The Rams are responding to the loss in predictable fashion: they’ve gone to free agency, which means that Carson Wentz will replace Brett Rypien as long as Stafford is injured. With a Week 10 bye, Stafford does have enough time to heal up, but the move still gives the Rams some flexibility if — or more likely, when — the injury-prone Stafford is sidelined again.

Preseason Record Prediction: 6-11
Week 5 Record Prediction: 5-12

Daniel Jones, who was being sacked at an alarming rate, missed some time from a neck injury he suffered from all the hits. Unfortunately, his short return was abruptly ended by a season-ending ACL tear. Now the Giants are set up to earn a top selection in the 2024 NFL Draft, which makes the large contract extension they gave to Jones look even worse. Perhaps that’s why the Giants constructed the contract to be able to cut ties with a relatively low dead money charge after next season, but that doesn’t mean they deserve any credit. If they needed to factor in an escape route, maybe they should have realized that the contract was a bad idea to begin with.

Preseason Record Prediction: 10-7
Week 5 Record Prediction: 8-9

The calls to fire Bill Belichick are absurd. He’s still the best coach in NFL history, and who else could come in and do a better job with this team right now?

If you ask any other team in the bottom half of these rankings if they’d trade three years of mediocrity for twenty years of dominance, they would all say yes without hesitation. After all, most of them have suffered in mediocrity for years without any dominance at all.

Belichick has earned the right to have more than a few seasons of turmoil to rebuild this team. If the Patriots show patience, they’ll return to the top of this list. Just look at what Belichick accomplished the last time he had a few top-10 draft picks.

Preseason Record Prediction: 5-12
Week 5 Record Prediction: 3-14

The 2-7 Bears endured another loss in Week 9: this time, it was at the hands of New Orleans. Tyson Bagent gave Chicago 17 points through two touchdown passes, but three interceptions were enough to give the Saints the game. 

The only glimmer of hope for Chicago’s season may come against a Panthers matchup on Thursday night — that’s if the Bears even want to win at this point though. They do have their own first-round pick in 2024, but they also have the Panthers’ first-rounder — so perhaps a win on Thursday Night Football would do the Bears some good for their upcoming draft after all.

Preseason Record Prediction: 3-14
Week 5 Record Prediction: 5-12

The Cardinals lost to Browns 27-0, but at this point, that was clearly their plan. Quarterback Joshua Dobbs shocked Arizona by actually winning games, so they shipped him off to Minnesota. While Dobbs led the Vikings to an emotional win, quarterback Clayton Tune led Arizona to a grand total of 58 passing yards and a 20.8 passer rating. That’s more like it! Now all they have to do is find a way to keep Kyler Murray from returning and potentially winning games. 

It's hard to have any respect for a team that is intentionally tanking their season, especially since it means they are also wasting a year of their current players' careers. It’s inconsiderate, and I wouldn’t be surprised if those same players hold a grudge against the franchise moving forward. After all, those players are being expected to give their all for an organization that is punishing them for the failures of the front office. 

But the Cardinals don’t care about their current players — they care about those No. 1, 16, and 33 draft selections they are currently holding onto. They’d better hope those players pan out better than the several first-round whiffs that led them to this humiliating situation in the first place.

Preseason Record Prediction: 5-12
Week 5 Record Prediction: 3-14

In the same week that CJ Stroud broke rookie passing records, Bryce Young had his lowest passer rating of the season (48.3) against a Colts defense that is ranked 26th in points allowed. Carolina has done a poor job of supporting Young. Trading away every valuable offensive piece and expecting a rookie quarterback to save your franchise is never going to go well. The Panthers are just the latest case study of what not to do when developing a franchise quarterback.