The Fifth Down: NFL awards never tell the whole story

“The fans sometimes oversimplify things, relying on statistics, for example, to try to get a handle on what’s going on,” Joe Montana wrote in his book, The Art and Magic of Quarterbacking. “That doesn’t always work.”

Montana was right, but he wasn't just talking about NFL fans. Everyone who watches the game, from journalists to coaches to even former players themselves, collectively creates narratives based on what they see — at least, what they think they see.

Justin Fields isn't to blame for his poor quarterbacking because of his "ceiling", which really means that he was drafted too high to be this inconsistent. The 49ers quietly sent away Trey Lance as they quietly promoted Brock Purdy, who has quietly become a leading MVP candidate. While Purdy is finally being recognized for his talent, analysts have been more hesitant to credit his success because teams didn't recognize it during the draft. He is Mr. Irrelevant, after all.

Brock Purdy plays on an uneven MVP field

Imagine if Brock Purdy, after taking over as the starting quarterback for the San Francisco 49ers, had played as poorly as Zach Wilson or Justin Fields did in their rookie seasons. He would not have been afforded the same luxuries as Wilson or Fields, and he would not be a starting quarterback in the league today.

Conscious or not, that moniker will color how NFL onlookers view him. While top quarterback busts like Lance, Wilson and Fields are granted endless opportunities to succeed, Purdy lives in more precarious territory because he was drafted later. And underneath it all, the reluctance to recognize clear talent and irrefutable wins means this: no one wants to admit they were wrong.

No one in the sports world has been spot-on with every single prediction, yet once a pre-draft narrative is constructed, it becomes nearly impossible to counter. It took years for the Jets to let go of Sam Darnold while Zach Wilson remains in the building.

It affects franchises later, too. If the Broncos hadn't sold their franchise for Russell Wilson, it's not impossible to imagine they would have rotated their quarterback again the way they had been before acquiring Wilson. Aiden Hutchinson is powering the Detroit Lions through a dominant comeback, but it's still taken a lot to prove that Hutchinson is better than Travon Walker, who was drafted before him. These were picks No. 1 and 2 in the 2022 Draft, so imagine what it's been like for the ascension of No. 262.

Further complicating matters is the fact that football is, in fact, a team sport. While quarterbacks will always get more praise and more criticism than they deserve, it is difficult to separate their personal achievements from the team’s success. When Aaron Rodgers won his back-to-back MVP awards in the 2019 and 2020 NFL seasons, he just so happened to be throwing the ball to Davante Adams, who was arguably the best wide receiver in the league.

In 2021, when Adams left for Las Vegas, Rodgers saw a drastic statistical regression. It’s possible that the decline was caused by various injuries or roster changes rather than the departure of Adams. It’s likely that it was a culmination of all of those factors. But if Adams played that significant of a role in Rodgers’ statistical success, was Rodgers really the most valuable player?

The postseason answer for that season would be probably not. Rodgers lost to Tom Brady, the other leading MVP candidate, in the 2021 NFC Championship game. Like Peyton Manning, Rodgers impressed with high statistical records during the regular season only to falter in the postseason. Playoff football is played on a different level, but it's one that the league MVP should be able to reach. Award season creates a conundrum in that accolades do recognize talent, but they don't always tell the whole story. Sometimes, there's a legitimate debate about who deserves an award: Tom Brady won seven Super Bowl and 15 Pro Bowl nods, yet he won only three MVP awards. Something doesn't add up.

When tallying award votes at the end of the NFL season, it's likely that there will be one or two decisions that don't add up. While some players streak ahead for unanimous wins like Lamar Jackson, many titles will be up for debate. Unfortunately, that debate has often been dictated by factors far out of an individual player's control.

The Real MVP: Peyton Manning vs. Tom Brady in the 2000s

Coming out of Tennessee, Peyton Manning was one of the most hyped prospects in league history. When the Indianapolis Colts made Manning the first overall pick in the 1998 NFL Draft, they intended on structuring their entire roster around his talent. That’s why they surrounded him with the likes of Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark and either Marshall Faulk and Edgerrin James in the backfield. Indianapolis made it clear that they were going to rely solely on Manning right from the start. In his first four games, Manning threw 11 interceptions with just three touchdowns. He finished that year breaking five NFL rookie records, including most touchdown passes and most interceptions.

In many ways, geography can dictate schemes. Indianapolis was the perfect place for a pass-heavy offense. While Indianapolis has never been a city that would suffer from heavy rainfall or blizzards, the RCA Dome and Lucas Oil Stadium both featured a closed roof that made sure the players would be protected from playing football in the elements. During the 2002 NFL realignment, the franchise was also moved from the AFC East to the AFC South. Instead of playing games in the chilly northeast, the Colts would face their divisional foes in the favorable climates of Jacksonville, Houston and Tennessee.

Manning’s arch-rival, on the other hand, did not land in a tailor-made situation.

When Mo Lewis made the infamous hit on Drew Bledsoe in 2001, Tom Brady stepped into a role that was not favorable to modern-day passing standards.

A pass-heavy offensive scheme would not have been advantageous in New England. The New England Patriots played their games outdoors, where poor weather was not just a possibility, it was the expectation. Even on sunny days, head coach Bill Belichick would wet the ball in practice to simulate rainy conditions.

The NFL only has a handful of major offensive systems, and one of them — the Erhardt-Perkins system — was created by assistant coaches Ron Erhardt and Ray Perkins, who ran the Patriots offense under head coach Chuck Fairbanks in the 1970s.

The Erhardt-Perkins scheme was traditionally a smash-mouth, ground-and-pound offense that can be best summed up by Erhardt’s philosophy, “You throw to score and run to win.” The object of the system was to maximize efficiency and time of possession in cold weather, with a heavy emphasis on the run game and the short passing game from multiple looks, formations and combinations of personnel.

That’s the offense that Brady inherited. 

There was no room for Brady to sling the ball around for 26 interceptions like Manning did as a rookie. Brady wasn’t just playing each game for a win, but also for his job.

Manning not only had favorable conditions to achieve statistical success, but he also had the leeway to make mistakes without losing his job.

As Brady developed, New England’s offensive approach developed into an explosive attack with shotgun formations, two tight end sets, and blistering no-huddle drives. But weather conditions weren’t going to evolve — and even if New England installed a dome on Gillette Stadium, the Patriots would still have to play in poor conditions against their divisional foes and AFC North counterparts.

So the Patriots’ geography led to the roots of their offensive scheme, which led to their receiver-adverse personnel approach. Ultimately, it meant that Brady was not going to be able to pass the ball 50 times a game like Indianapolis — or like he would do himself in Tampa at the twilight of his career.

While Brady wasn’t airing out the ball every game, it didn’t mean he wasn’t capable of carrying his team to victory whenever it was necessary. He did it time and time again, even in his first four years as a starter. 

But while Brady was methodically driving the ball down the field in rain and snow, Peyton Manning was slinging it to All-Pro weapons in air-conditioned buildings.

The Most Valuable Player award is based on statistical performance with no regard for schemes, situations, or contributions to team success. It should come as no surprise, then, that Manning had more favorable odds to win the honor over Brady, regardless of which quarterback truly provided more value to his team in any particular season.

Individual awards ignore team effort

In the modern NFL era, only 13 non-quarterbacks have won the NFL MVP Award. Before the NFL-AFL merger in 1966, five MVPs were handed out to four exceptional non-quarterbacks — Jim Brown scored the award in 1957 and 1958. That makes four players between 1957 and 1965, nine non-quarterbacks between 1966 and 1999, and four non-quarterbacks since 2000. The last non-quarterback to win was running back Adrian Peterson in 2012, which represents another trend: if the award doesn't go to a quarterback, it tends to go to a running back. Alan Page, Mark Mosely and Lawrence Taylor are the only exceptions to that unspoken rule.

Every non-quarterback on the list earned their place with an exceptional season, but moreover, they overcame the burden of proving to the entire NFL that they were the most valuable player on the field. These players had to do more than their position: they had to bother weather, small markets, injuries, and often, a lack of appreciation for their contributions to the team. With his unparalleled blocking, Trent Williams has paved the way for Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey to succeed, and he inevitably contributes to the 49ers' success on every offensive snap. But an offensive lineman has never won MVP, and it would be difficult to imagine one doing so: their success is more difficult to ascertain and measure than completed passes or rushing yards gained.

In the second era of the Patriots dynasty, there is a surefire Hall of Fame talent whose contributions are often overlooked. Gunner Matthew Slater is a Patriots fan favorite, but those unfamiliar with the organization have probably never heard of him. Slater never worked out as a wide receiver, but he is flawless at what he does on special teams.

"Certainly Matt Slater will go up there, in the kicking game, with (Tom) Brady on offense and (Lawrence) Taylor on defense," Belichick said in 2022. "I feel very, very fortunate to have the opportunity to coach all the players, but I'd say those three in particular."

Belichick has coached numerous Hall of Fame players over the years, so including Slater alongside Taylor and Brady speaks volumes. Even still, come Slater's retirement, it wouldn't be surprising if he's consistently passed over in Hall of Fame voting in favor of flashy skill players and defensive stars. There are only four special teams players in the Hall of Fame, and they're all kickers. It's possible Slater won't make it to Canton, at least not for a long time.

But Slater is the person who pins opponents on returns, speeding down the field and tackling returners before they can sprint for touchdowns. What Slater offers in terms of field position on every return is invaluable, and it has a tangible effect on the game's outcome. It's not tangible enough for him to qualify for MVP attention, at least not for MVP voters.

It's not a perfect system, and it never will be, but it certainly could be better. In a media landscape where television analysts offer commentary without understanding what happened on a given play, awards are decided by media members who shape the narratives based on what they see. Their decision to focus heavily on quarterbacks and overlook team contributions means players like Trent Williams and Matthew Slater are easy to overlook. Let's not forget: Williams spent nine years languishing on the Commanders' roster before flourishing in San Francisco.

With all that being said, here are players who are — or seem to be — deserving of honors through six weeks of the 2023 NFL season.

NFL Honors Through Week 6

• MVP: Tua Tagovailoa (QB, Miami Dolphins)
• Offensive Player of the Year: Tyreek Hill (WR, Miami Dolphins)
• Defensive Player of the Year: Micah Parsons (LB, Dallas Cowboys)
• Offensive Rookie of the Year: CJ Stroud (QB, Houston Texans)
• Defensive Rookie of the Year: Jalen Carter (DT, Philadelphia Eagles)
• Comeback Player of the Year: Damar Hamlin (S, Buffalo Bills)
• Coach of the Year: Mike McDaniel (Miami Dolphins)
• Assistant Coach of the Year: Ben Johnson (Detroit Lions)
• Jim Brown Award (Rushing Leader): Christian McCaffrey (RB, San Francisco 49ers)
• Deacon Jones Sack Leader Award: TJ Watt (LB, Pittsburgh Steelers)

NFL Power Rankings: Week 7

Preseason Record Prediction: 12-5
Week 5 Record Prediction: 14-3

Christian McCaffrey has now scored a touchdown in 15 consecutive games. This time, however, he didn’t finish the game, and the 49ers lost.

Brock Purdy threw his first interception of the season and suffered the first regular season loss in the NFL.

Still, there’s no reason to worry. Nobody expected San Francisco to go undefeated this season, and everyone should’ve seen this loss as a real possibility.

Kyle Shanahan has always struggled against Jim Schwartz, Cleveland’s defensive coordinator. As an offensive coordinator or head coach, Shanahan is now 1-9 against Schwartz’s defenses. As San Francisco’s head coach, he is 0-3 against Schwartz. In those three games, the 49ers have averaged nine fewer points per game than they have against every other defense. On Sunday, the 49ers scored 16 fewer points than their average coming into Week 6.

As long as the 49ers don’t play the Browns in the Super Bowl, they should be fine. More cornering are the injuries the 49ers suffered throughout the game — especially Trent Williams, Deebo Samuel, and Christian McCaffrey. Those are three players that San Francisco cannot afford to lose.

Preseason Record Prediction: 9-8
Week 5 Record Prediction: 11-6

How good has Miami’s offense been? The Dolphins are averaging over 37 points per game, which is on pace to be the most of any team since the 2013 Denver Broncos. Their 498.7 yards per game lead the next closest team, the Philadelphia Eagles, by 103.7 yards per game. They’re averaging 6.5 rushing yards per carry, the most since at least the 2000 NFL season. And Tyreek Hill has more receiving yards through six games than any player in the Super Bowl era (814 yards).

Despite all this, the Miami Dolphins were staring down a 14-0 deficit after their first quarter versus the Carolina Panthers. Over the next three quarters, Tua Tagovailoa would lead his offense to score 42 points, with 28 of those points going unanswered until the fourth quarter.

The Dolphins demonstrated their depth with four different players scoring a total of six touchdowns, but one particular player stood out above the rest (besides Raheem Mostert, who scored 3 touchdowns). Tyreek Hill caught six passes for 163 yards, bringing his season total to a league-leading 814 yards. That’s the most receiving yards through six games of any NFL player in the Super Bowl era. It’s one of the key reasons why the Dolphins sit atop the AFC East at 5-1, and it’s why Hill was named the PFF Offensive Player of the Week this week.

Even with rookie phenom De’Von Achane on IR, the Dolphins have enough firepower to fell the mighty Philadelphia Eagles in Week 7. As Tua told reporters following the game, speed kills. 

Preseason Record Prediction: 11-6
Week 5 Record Prediction: 13-4

A few weeks ago, I asked if last year would prove to have been a magical season for Philadelphia, much like 2017. But before this week, the Eagles kept finding a way to win games this season, despite sluggish outings on the offensive side of the ball. Now, they lost to the New York Jets. Philadelphia’s highly-praised offensive line allowed the Jets' defense to harass Jalen Hurts over and over again. Losing Lane Johnson really hurt their continuity, and they were bullied all game long. Even the running game was neutralized. Jalen Hurts is a fine passer, but he needs a strong rushing attack to be fully effective.

Jalen Hurts had his worst game of the season, but he wasn’t as bad as the stat sheet might indicate. Still, he’s not as good as he was last season either. He already has seven interceptions in his 213 pass attempts this season. That’s already more than the six interceptions he had on 460 pass attempts last year.

This Eagles offense clearly isn’t as good as it was last season, but that doesn’t mean the team can’t replicate its success.

While the loss stings, the loss of Lane Johnson is worse. Hopefully, he returns to the lineup quickly — it’s clear that the Eagles offense needs him.

Preseason Record Prediction: 9-8
Week 5 Record Prediction: 11-6

The 5-1 Lions trounced the Buccaneers this week in a 20-6 rout, adding to the legend that is the 2023 Detroit Lions.

The Lions are now 13-3 in their past 16 games, and they’ve now won four consecutive games by 14 or more points for the first time since 1969. While the offense will undoubtedly get most of the praise, Detroit’s run defense is the second-best in the NFL, allowing just 3.3 yards per carry.

Maybe it’s hard to take the Lions seriously because they are, after all, still the Lions. But Dan Campbell seems to have turned this franchise around, and the ownership deserves credit for sticking with this staff and allowing them time to develop a culture. Like a phoenix from the ashes, the Lions have risen from an NFC North that is usually controlled by the Packers or Vikings. Not this year.

As it turns out, the Lions have flourished with the help of recent draft picks, including tight end Sam LaPorta, linebacker Jack Campbell, and defensive end Aiden Hutchinson. It turns out they can do just fine without keeping TJ Hockenson or drafting Travon Walker.

The Lions won’t have a problem guarding their division prominence during the bye thanks to their sizable lead.

Preseason Record Prediction: 12-5
Week 5 Record Prediction: 13-4

Andy Reid’s innovation has kept this team afloat despite its weaknesses. Thanks to losses by both of the league’s undefeated teams, the Chiefs have the longest active winning streak in the league. Perhaps that wouldn’t be the case if they had a game in Week 6, though. After all, the Chiefs only have one win against a team with a winning record. Kansas City’s explosive play percentage (9.7) is the worst it’s been under Andy Reid, and they’re near the bottom of the league in air yards per attempt (6.4) and air yards per reception (4.6). Hopefully, Reid spent the bye week scheming up new ways to move this offense down the field, because they certainly need the help.

Preseason Record Prediction: 11-6
Week 5 Record Prediction: 13-4

Since laying a dud in Week 1, Josh Allen has thrown 12 touchdowns to three interceptions and has completed 72 percent of his passes. Still, this game was a lot closer than it should have been, and Buffalo’s defensive injuries are concerning for this team’s long-term goals. Josh Allen cannot be expected to carry this offense every game. He has moments of questionable decision-making and can get sloppy with the football. The Bills need to be able to win in other ways when he’s not having his best day. That’s the only way Buffalo will find the consistency they need.

Preseason Record Prediction: 11-6
Week 5 Record Prediction: 11-6

Perhaps the Jaguars should consider a permanent move to London, as they’ve won half of their games there. Regardless, they’ve now won three consecutive games and taken control of the AFC South. They secured another divisional win against Indianapolis, who is second in the divisional race. Trevor Lawrence has 982 passing yards and five touchdowns during their win streak. While that’s still a bit behind where everyone expected him to be by this point in the season, Travis Etienne has helped pick up the slack.

Preseason Record Prediction: 11-6
Week 5 Record Prediction: 12-5

The Cowboys held off Chargers offensive coordinator Kellen Moore from succeeding in his revenge game, and they managed to shake off the negative momentum of their embarrassing Week 5 loss. Still, the Cowboys' four wins have come against some of the weaker teams in the leagues, and their losses show a lack of discipline and consistency. Dallas needs to string together consistent performances on both sides of the ball. Hopefully, they can figure out how to do that during their upcoming bye week.

Preseason Record Prediction: 12-5
Week 5 Record Prediction: 9-8

Seventeen points is a far cry from what the Bengals would have scored in past seasons. Still, it was enough for a win and this offense is improving. In Cincinatti’s first four games, Joe Burrow was dead last in completion percentage (57.6) and 29th in passing yards per game (182). Since then, he’s been second in completion percentage (74.1) and eighth in yards per game (251). The Bengals are slowly improving after their dreadful start, and the AFC North has been weaker than expected. There is still hope for Cincinnati.

Preseason Record Prediction: 11-6
Week 5 Record Prediction: 12-5

Lamar Jackson has the fourth-best completion percentage in the league (69.9), which is on pace to be the best of his career. That’s despite the fact that Baltimore has the third most lost fumbles and the eighth most dropped passes in the league. This team has the talent and culture to develop into something special by the end of the season. To do that, however, they’ll need to work on their fundamentals and clean up mental errors. This division won’t get any easier — Cleveland and Cincinnati are surging, and Mike Tomlin will keep the Steelers lurking close by.

Preseason Record Prediction: 10-7
Week 5 Record Prediction: 11-6

The Seahawks had an impressive win against the roaring Detroit Lions, but that was a long time ago. Since then, the team has been sluggish. Despite making five trips to the red zone, Seattle only managed to score 10 points against Cincinnati. In the past month, Geno Smith is 32nd in passer rating (81.5). Somebody in Seattle should make sure he still ain’t writing back.

Preseason Record Prediction: 9-8
Week 5 Record Prediction: 7-10

The Browns narrowly escaped defeat when 49ers rookie kicker Jake Moody missed a 41-yard field goal attempt with nine seconds left. Cleveland’s defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz is 9-1 against Kyle Shanahan now, so perhaps this game wasn’t as much of an upset as it might seem. More significantly, the defense has been historically great all season. Cleveland has allowed just 1,002 yards this season. That’s the fewest yards a team has allowed through their first five games in 52 years. That’s quite a feat, especially considering how favorable the league is to offenses now. Cleveland’s win also made franchise history, as they beat an undefeated team with five or more wins for the first time since 1969.

Preseason Record Prediction: 7-10
Week 5 Record Prediction: 9-8

Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp played like they were still in 2020. Kupp has now topped 100 receiving yards in back-to-back games since his return from injury while running back Kyren Williams had another outstanding performance. The team’s three losses came against some of the better teams in the league: San Francisco, Cincinnati, and Philadelphia. Even in those games, the Rams managed to keep things competitive.

Preseason Record Prediction: 10-7
Week 5 Record Prediction: 7-10

During their bye week, the Steelers watched all three of their division rivals clinch wins in momentum-building fashion. Pittsburgh has managed to stay alive in the playoff hunt with two wins against division rivals, but that will only get tougher unless the offense improves. The Steelers have a winning record despite a -31 point differential in their five games. They’ve won largely thanks to their defense, and in spite of an offense that ranks 30th in scoring (15.8 points per game). T.J. Watt is on pace for 27 sacks, which would shatter the NFL single-season sack record that he currently shares with Michael Strahan (22.5 sacks). In Week 7, the Steelers are set to face off against the Rams in Los Angeles as 3.5-point underdogs.

Preseason Record Prediction: 8-9
Week 5 Record Prediction: 10-7

Despite some late-game heroics and exciting finishes, Green Bay has done little to impress this season. The offense needs a stronger running game and it needs to develop an identity. Playing from behind isn’t going to go well with an inexperienced quarterback. That certainly is a part of the reason that Jordan Love is last in the league in completion percentage (55.6). Hopefully, the bye week helped the Packers self-scout and clean some things up. 

A mix of good and bad news in terms of injuries: Aaron Jones returned to practice this week, but the Packers could be missing linebackers De’Vondre Campbell and Quay Walker come Sunday versus the Broncos. At least the Broncos are unlikely to pose a threat, though the same was said of the Raiders in Week 5.

Preseason Record Prediction: 4-13
Week 5 Record Prediction: 6-11

How much better have the Houston Texans been in 2023? After allowing 24.7 points per game in 2022, the Texans' defense has allowed just 18.8 points per game, tied for 10th best in the league. In 2022, they allowed the sixth-most rushing yards in NFL history (2,894). This season, they’ve allowed 651 rushing yards, which ranks 17th in the NFL. On top of it all, their pressure rate of 50 percent is good for second-best in the league. Give DeMeco Ryans credit — he’s the reason Houston has been shockingly good.

Preseason Record Prediction: 5-12
Week 5 Record Prediction: 9-8

The creamsicle jerseys made their long-awaited return, but perhaps it’s time to put them right back where they were. Baker Mayfield is looking more and more like the Baker Mayfield he’s been in previous seasons. He’s been missing reads and making inaccurate throws for several weeks now. Maybe the Buccaneers looked as good as they did because their three victories came against opponents that have a combined 6-12 record.

Preseason Record Prediction: 9-8
Week 5 Record Prediction: 4-13

The Jets had a plus-4 turnover margin, their best turnover margin in a game since 2015. The Jets pass rush is ferocious, and it has more depth than any other defense in the league. With a deep rotation of rushers, the Jets defensive line can stay fresh late into the fourth quarter, when most pass rushers — and offensive linemen — are usually running out of gas. If the Jets can capture a lead, it’ll be hard for anyone to take it from them.

The presence of Aaron Rodgers surely helps this young team’s confidence. Some are even speculating that Rodgers, who is already back to walking on New York’s sideline, could make a return late this season. For that to happen, however, Zach Wilson will need to keep this team in postseason contention. So far, he’s not off to a bad start.

Preseason Record Prediction: 9-8
Week 5 Record Prediction: 11-6

Kellen Moore’s offense should’ve been fired up to get a win for their offensive coordinator who was dishonorably discharged by the Dallas Cowboys. Instead, the Chargers only managed to score 17 points. The defense gave up several conversions in third-and-long situations on the Cowboys’ drive to take the lead. Nothing this team has done warrants any excitement, especially considering their two wins have come against the Raiders and the Vikings.

Preseason Record Prediction: 10-7
Week 5 Record Prediction: 8-9

After blowing out the Patriots in New England, the Saints laid a dud against the Texans. New Orleans has three wins, but they’ve come against opponents that have a combined record of 3-13. The Saints offense has only averaged 4.6 yards per play and 15.8 offensive points per game. That should be unacceptable for an offense with Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, and Alvin Kamara.

Preseason Record Prediction: 5-12
Week 5 Record Prediction: 5-12

Rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson was injured in four of his first five NFL games. It was clear all along that he needed to do a better job of protecting himself. Maybe the organization needed to do a better job of protecting him as well. Now, his shoulder injury will put an abrupt end to his rookie season. He’ll finish with just 477 total passing attempts in his four seasons of football since high school. That’s not a good sign for his development — just look at Trey Lance.

Preseason Record Prediction: 7-10
Week 5 Record Prediction: 7-10

So far, Sam Howell has offered a dim future for the Commanders, but on Sunday, Atlanta’s Desmond Ridder was even worse. Ridder’s three second-half interceptions cost the Falcons the game, one they could have easily won had Ridder replicated the success he had on the team’s two touchdown drives. Notably, this is the first time Ridder has lost a home game since he was in high school.

Ridder was coming off a career game versus the Houston Texans in Week 5, and considering his 307 yards, it’s clear that he can be effective at moving the ball downfield. The issue seems to be his decision-making, which is why he also threw three picks versus the Jaguars in Week 4.

The loss overshadowed a major milestone for Calais Campbell, who celebrated his 100th career sack with the Dirty Bird dance. If the Falcons can’t win, at least one of their players can enjoy a career victory.

Preseason Record Prediction: 7-10
Week 5 Record Prediction: 7-10

The Raiders are moving on up after two consecutive wins, giving them a 3-3 record that puts them above the Chargers and Broncos in the AFC West. During their recent wins over the Packers and Patriots, the Raiders showed more cohesion than they have all year, with former Patriots Jakobi Meyers and Jimmy Garoppolo connecting for a second-quarter touchdown before Garoppolo exited with a back injury. The rest of the Raiders’ points came from four field goals and a safety, which means their defensive and special teams units were able to get the job done when the offense faltered. Like last week, it was an ugly win, but a win nonetheless.

Preseason Record Prediction: 9-8
Week 5 Record Prediction: 9-8

Kirko Chainz hasn’t been able to follow up last year’s hype this season, even with a 19-13 win that gave them their second victory of the season. That’s because they barely managed to beat the lowly Bears this week, and if it weren’t for the 1-5 Bears, the former NFC North champs would be sitting at the bottom of their division.

Preseason Record Prediction: 7-10
Week 5 Record Prediction: 7-10

So far, Sam Howell has offered a dim future for the Commanders, but on Sunday, Atlanta’s Desmond Ridder was even worse. Ridder’s three second-half interceptions cost the Falcons the game, one they could have easily won had Ridder replicated the success he had on the team’s two touchdown drives. Notably, this is the first time Ridder has lost a home game since he was in high school.

Ridder was coming off a career game versus the Houston Texans in Week 5, and considering his 307 yards, it’s clear that he can be effective at matriculating the ball downfield. The issue seems to be his decision-making, which is why he also threw three picks versus the Jaguars in Week 4.

The loss overshadowed a major milestone for Calais Campbell, who celebrated his 100th career sack with the Dirty Bird dance. If the Falcons can’t win, at least one of their players can enjoy a career victory.

Preseason Record Prediction: 5-12
Week 5 Record Prediction: 8-9

Things have gone from bad to worse as the Titans barrel down a 2-4 spiral with their latest loss in London. After Ryan Tannehill exited with a third-quarter injury, Malik Willis finished half of his passes for 76 yards — and four sacks. Derrick Henry emphasized the indeed to execute, which he did all on his own with 12 rushes for 97 yards. But one of those rushes, which was his longest of the season, was a 63-yard scamper, meaning he only managed 34 yards on his remaining 11 attempts. With Tannehill’s high ankle sprain potentially sidelining him for weeks, expect the Titans to compete for a high draft pick rather than additions to the win column.

Preseason Record Prediction: 3-14
Week 5 Record Prediction: 5-12

The 1-5 Cardinals have hardly gotten anything done without Kyler Murray, and Week 6 was no different in their agonizing loss to the Rams. The game was relatively even in the first half as the two sides traded field goals, and the Cardinals actually entered the locker room with a 9-6 lead at halftime. That changed in the second half when the Rams adjusted their strategy and run the ball, to which the Cardinals had no response. The Cardinals didn’t score at all in the second half, and their listless response makes it clear that the current team couldn’t survive a round of playoff football — not that they have any chance of making it there at this point.

Preseason Record Prediction: 10-7
Week 5 Record Prediction: 7-10

The only game the Broncos have won this season was against the Chicago Bears, which they only won by three points. That’s not much to separate them from one of the NFL’s worst teams, and it’s subjective about which of these teams is actually worse. In their defense, their first two losses were decided by two or fewer points, but there was no hope for them this week as they faced the mighty Chiefs. The Broncos managed to put together a single effective scoring drive with six plays for 61 yards plus a two-point conversion, but it was hardly enough to counteract the Chiefs’ 19 points on the day. In the defense’s defense, at least it wasn’t 70 points.

Preseason Record Prediction: 10-7
Week 5 Record Prediction: 8-9

It was a Patriots versus former Patriots revenge game this week, and unfortunately for New England, their ex-players and coaches emerged victorious. The Patriots’ 17-21 loss to the Raiders this week gives Raiders coach Josh McDaniels a 3-0 record versus his former compatriot Bill Belichick. McDaniels managed to win without quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, who exited the game with a back injury. The Patriots are now 1-5, putting them on par with the Broncos. How the mighty have fallen from 2015 to now.

Preseason Record Prediction: 6-11
Week 5 Record Prediction: 5-12

The Giants shouldn’t be 1-5, and they shouldn’t have lost to the Bills on Sunday. The 9-14 loss was a big game for both sides, which was unfortunately decided by a controversial no-call for pass interference on the final play of the game. Despite this, the Giants had multiple opportunities to win the game, including a goalline attempt as the clock ran out in the first half. Coming up short twice at the goalline is tragic for New York, but it’s also indicative of a team that has only managed to win one game all year. As head coach Brian Daboll said, “You don’t get trophies for trying.” It doesn’t seem like anyone on this roster will be up for NFL awards anytime soon.

Preseason Record Prediction: 5-12
Week 5 Record Prediction: 3-14

Instead of replicating the field day they enjoyed over Commanders in Week 5, the Bears lost to their Minnesota rivals in Week 6. Quarterback Just Fields endured four sacks before leaving the game with a hand injury in the third quarter. While Field’s hand isn’t broken, his football team is: last week’s win stopped a 14-game losing streak that promptly resumed in Week 6. What’s both promising and troubling is that backup quarterback Tyler Bagent had better stats than Fields on Sunday with 10 of 14 for 83 yards compared to 6 of 10 for 58 yards and an interception. Maybe Bagent can get a win versus the Raiders in Week 7, but it’s unlikely.

Preseason Record Prediction: 5-12
Week 5 Record Prediction: 3-14

The Panthers and the Bears have a tug-of-war between the final spot in the power rankings, but for now, the title goes to the Panthers.

The NFL’s last remaining winless team lost their sixth straight game on Sunday, blowing a 14-point lead to the Miami Dolphins. Unfortunately for Carolina, their offense cobbled together enough first-quarter momentum that probably would have been enough to defeat most other NFL teams.

Quarterback Bryce Young completed 23 of 38 passes for 217 yards and a touchdown for his highest QB rating of the season with 85.1. Young is flexing his connection with Adam Thielen, who surpassed 100 receiving yards in his second straight game with 115 yards on 11 receptions. Carolina’s run game is woefully inadequate without Christain McCaffrey, but running back Chubba Hubbard did manage 88 scrimmage yards and a score.

Then, there’s the defense that allowed Miami to score 42 points, with 28 of those points going unanswered until the fourth quarter.

The worst part is that Carolina doesn’t even benefit from being this awful — Chicago does.

At this point, the Panthers could seem better after Week 7, but only because they have a bye week this week and won’t have an opportunity to make this situation even worse.